New Tony Predictions?

[JonahKost]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 10:37pm

Since some shows closed, we might have a better idea of what might be nominated. I'm guessing most shows won't close because the producers will want to hold out until Tonys.

Best Musical:
Finding Neverland
Dr. Zhivago
Fun Home (if it gets good reviews)
an American in Paris (if it gets good reviews)
Honeymoon in Vegas

Best Play:
Definatley Curious Incident
Disgraced

Best Revival:
The King and I
On The Town
Side Show (I hope it gets nominated, deserves a lot more than it got)
On The Twentieth Century
Gigi (if it gets good reviews or Side Show doesn't get nominated)

Best Actor - Leading - Musical:
Tony Yazbeck - On The Town
Matthew Morrison - Finding Neverland
Michael Cerveris - Fun Home
Ken Watanabe - The King and I
Peter Gallagher - On The Twentieth Century

Best Actress - Leading - Musical:
Kelli O'Hara - The King and I
Kristin Chenoweth - On The Twentieth Century
Laura Michelle Kelly - Finding Neverland
Erin Davie - Side Show
Emily Padgett - Side Show

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 10:56pm

We may not yet know what the rest of the season has in store for us, but in the meantime, here are my current predictions:

Best Musical:
An American in Paris
Doctor Zhivago
Fun Home
The Visit

Best Play:
The Audience-Peter Morgan
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time-Simon Stephens
Disgraced-Ayad Akhtar
Hand to God-Robert Askins

Best Revival of a Musical:
The King & I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Side Show

Best Revival of a Play:
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Michael Cerveris-Fun Home
Rob McClure-Honeymoon in Vegas
Matthew Morrison-Finding Neverland
Tam Mutu-Doctor Zhivago
Ken Watanabe-The King & I

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Kristin Chenoweth-On the Twentieth Century
Erin Davie/Emily Padgett-Side Show
Beth Malone-Fun Home
Kelli O'Hara-The King & I
Chita Rivera-The Visit

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Steven Boyer-Hand to God
Bradley Cooper-The Elephant Man
Larry David-Fish in the Dark
Bill Nighy-Skylight
Alex Sharp-The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Renee Fleming-Living on Love
Helen Mirren-The Audience
Elisabeth Moss-The Heidi Chronicles
Carey Mulligan-Skylight
Ruth Wilson-Constellations

[ljay889]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:02pm

Best Musical:
An American in Paris
Doctor Zhivago
Fun Home
The Visit

Don't know much about the first two, but this looks pretty accurate. I think there's going to be a lot of respect for The Visit, especially if they start promoting it as the final Kander & Ebb musical.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:06pm

Ya'll. Really?
No. Just no.

[RW3]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:17pm

Aren't some of the categories expanding to seven nominees? Did I read that breakdown correctly?

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:21pm

New Play

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time

Disgraced

Hand to God

Wolf Hall

Play Revival

You Cant Take It With You

The Elephant Man

The Heidi Chronicles

Skylight

New Musical

Fun Home

Honeymoon in Vegas

The Visit

Something Rotten

Finding Neverland or It Shoulda Been You

Musical Revival

The King and I

Gigi

On the 20th Century

Leading Actress in a Musical

Chita Rivera-The Visit

Kelli O'Hara-The King and I

Kristin Chenoweth-On The Twentieth Century

Laura Michelle Kelly-Finding Neverland

Beth Malone-Fun Home

Leading Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris-Fun Home

Rob Mcclure-Honeymoon in Vegas

Ken Watanabe-The King and I

Matthew Morrison-Finding Neverland

Brian d'Arcy James-Something Rotten

Leading Actress in a Play

Renee Fleming-Living on Love

Helen Mirren-The Audience

Elizabeth Moss-The Heidi Chronicles

Ruth Wilson-Constellations

Carey Mulligan-Skylight

Leading Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp-The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Bradley Cooper-The Elephant Man

Nathan Lane-It's Only a Play

Steven Boyer-Hand to God

Ben Miles-Wolf Hall

Featured Actor in a Play

Bryce Pinkham-The Heidi Chronicles

James Earl Jones-You Can't Take it With You

Micah Stock-Its Only a Play

Featured Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford-You Can't Take it With You

Kristine Nielsen-You Can't Take it With You

Julie White-Airline Highway

Featured Actor in a Musical

John Cariani-Something Rotten

Andy Karl-On the 20th Century

Christian Borle-Something Rotten

Kelsy Grammer-Finding Neverland

Tony Danza-Honeymoon in Vegas

Featured Actress in a Musical

Tyne Daly-It Shoulda Been You

Harriet Harris-It Shoulda Been You

Nancy Opel-Honeymoon In Vegas

Judy Kuhn-Fun Home

Sydney Lucas-Fun Home

Ruthie Ann Miles-The King and I

Score

Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron-Fun Home

Kander and Ebb-The Visit

Jason Robert Brown-Honeymoon in Vegas

Sting-The Last Ship

Best Book of a Musical

Lisa Kron-Fun Home

Brian Hargrove-It Shoulda Been You

Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell-Something Rotten

Terrence McNally-The Visit

Best Direction of a Musical

Bart Sher-The King and I

Sam Gold-Fun Home

Bill Condon-Side Show

John Doyle-The Visit

Casey Nicholaw-Something Rotten

Best Choreography

Joshua Bergasse-On the Town

Christopher Wheeldon-An American in Paris

Mia Michaels-Finding Neverland

Casey Nicholaw-Something Rotten

Best Direction of a Play

Marianne Elliott-The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Scott Ellis-You Can't Take It With You  

Moritz von Stuelpnagel-Hand to God

Jeremy Herrin-Wolf Hall 

Updated On: 4/10/15 at 11:21 PM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:41pm

^Kristine Nielsen and James Earl Jones are both being eligible as Featured Actors along with the rest of the ensemble of You Can't Take It With You.

We don't even know how the ensemble of It Shoulda Been You are going to be sorted out into Lead and Featured roles yet.

[haterobics]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:44pm

Special Tony Award - John Cameron Mitchell, Hedwig

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:44pm

I was wandering about that^
Im gonna change it now.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:45pm

"Aren't some of the categories expanding to seven nominees? Did I read that breakdown correctly?"

That was announced for both Directing categories as well as Choreography.

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:48pm

Leading Actor in a Musical is ridiculously competitive this season!! So many great, worthy of being nominated guys!!

Michael Cerveris-Fun Home
Peter Gallagher -On the 20th Century
Tam Mutu-Doctor Zhivago
Ken Watanabe-The King and I
Matthew Morrison-Finding Neverland
Christian Borle-Something Rotten
Brian d'Arcy James-Something Rotten
Tony Yazbeck-On the Town
David Burtka-It Shoulda Been You (Leading or Featured?)
Corey Cott-Gigi (Leading or Featured?)
Ryan Silverman-Side Show (Leading or Featured?)
The Last Ship-Michael Esper
Tony Danza-Honeymoon in Vegas
Rob Mcclure-Honeymoon in Vegas
Roger Rees-The Visit
Robert Fairchild-An American in Paris

THATS 16 LEADING MEN IN MUSICALS THIS SEASON!! give or take because I'm not sure which categories some of them fall under. There are also probably more guys i just didn't put under leading men because i wasn't sure. Also, I didn't categorize Holler if Ya Hear Me so I'm not sure if theres any leading men in that show.

Updated On: 1/21/15 at 11:48 PM

[RW3]

Posted: 1/21/15 at 11:56pm

Oh okay. Thanks!

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:17am

"That was announced for both Directing categories as well as Choreography."

Though my understanding was that it's only if the votes break down in a certain way, so it's not a guarantee that there will be more than usual.

[haterobics]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:19am

Did they already rule whether Danza would be leading or featured?

[kyl3fong2]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:30am

What about Something Rotten for best musical?


Also, what is the buzz out there on An American in Paris? Curious to know how advanced sales are for the show...

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:37am

"Did they already rule whether Danza would be leading or featured?"

The last eligibility meeting was the morning of January 15, so technically Honeymoon in Vegas hadn't opened yet. It will be decided upon at their next meeting.

And to clarify the director and choreographer nominations. If there are at least seven eligible candidates in those categories then the number of nominees will increase from four to five.

We also now have the potential to have up to six nominees in each performance category. If there is a two or three way tie for the last slot in each category then both or all three will be eligible for nomination. So that can definitely be a pretty big game changer there.

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:50am

Fun Home
It Shoulda Been You
Finding Neverland
Something Rotten!
Doctor Dhivago
Honeymoon In Vegas
An American in Paris
The Visit
The Last Ship

They all seem really great but unfortunately there can only be 4...

[Falling]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 8:20am

Philly-there can be 5 nominees for best musical. I'm thinking it'll be:

An American in Paris
Fun Home
Honeymoon in Vegas
Something Rotten

With the last spot either going to The Last Ship or The Visit. (Or Dr. Zhivago.)

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 8:29am

@Phillypinto, These are who I think will be considered as Leading Actor:
John Cariani-Something Rotten!
Michael Cerveris-Fun Home
Tony Danza-Honeymoon in Vegas
Michael Esper-The Last Ship
Robert Fairchild-An American in Paris
Peter Gallagher-On the Twentieth Century
Brian d'Arcy James-Something Rotten!
Rob McClure-Honeymoon in Vegas
Matthew Morrison-Finding Neverland
Tam Mutu-Doctor Zhivago
Ken Watanabe-The King and I
Saul Williams-Holler If Ya Hear Me
Tony Yazbeck-On the Town

Might Be Featured:
Christian Borle-Something Rotten!
David Burtka-It Shoulda Been You
Corey Cott-Gigi
Roger Rees-The Visit
Ryan Silverman-Side Show Updated On: 1/22/15 at 08:29 AM

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:41pm

I honestly don't think Tony Yazbeck should be considered leading.

[ggersten]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:51pm

Phillypinto - the nominating committee disagrees with you about Mr. Yazbeck.
On The Town Eligibility Ruling

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 12:59pm

they don't disagree with me, i disagree with them lol. His character does the same amount as the other two guys in On The Town.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 1:10pm

Two years ago, both Bring It On and A Christmas Story were nominated for best musical even though they had long closed. Just saying.

[ggersten]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 1:18pm

so there's hope for Hollar if You Hear Me?

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 1/22/15 at 1:19pm

...no, but there's hope for The Last Ship & Side Show.