The only reason why I predicted nominations for Mutu and Watanabe was because of their previous performances in film for Watanabe and musicals for Mutu. I've been really impressed by both and that is why I predicted them to get nominations for their respective performances.
"The thing about Dr. Zhivago though is that I simply do not see it being successful on Broadway."
I don't know about how it will do financially, but if it ends up being well-received by critics, it could still get some Tony Nominations (along with hopes that they would give a boost at the box office).
Am I the only one who thinks, sight unseen of course, that Fish in the Dark will be nominated for Best Play? If it's good and well-received, I can easily see a smart new comedy being embraced.
"It is absolutely absurd to be predicting nominations for Tam Mutu and Ken Watanabe, people who have not given one performance yet. Not that I'm surprised, that sort of nonsense always happens here. "
I can't speak for Mutu, Zhivago or even Watanabe himself. But I will say that it isn't too hard to look at some shows and guess which ROLES will call for nominations. The King & I is a well-established show, and the role of the King is historically one that receives a lot of awards attention. That doesn't make it a given that he will be nominated, but it's not so "absurd" to guess that he will get a nomination.
Featured Actor Musical - Fred Applegate, The Last Ship Featured Actress Play - Lindsay Duncan, A Delicate Balance Featured Actress Play - Clare Higgins, A Delicate Balance
Saw Fun Home last year at the Public. If any noms come its way, they're well deserved.
I don't think Watanabe will be nominated just because its a very strong season for leading men in musicals. As far as Mutu goes, I've heard amazing things about him, and he has a great role. As far as the success of Doctor Zhivago goes, it is a well known movie that people love. If it is well received by the critics, and word of mouth is good, i think it has a real shot as sustaining on Broadway, however i don't think it will get a best musical nomination because, again, there are a TON of new musicals this season that have a LOT of potential, or are already well received (e.g. Fun Home, Honeymoon in Vegas, Finding Neverland, It Shoulda Been You, Something Rotten, An American in Paris, and The Visit) . Im really excited to see all of these shows!
Declaring locks at this point is kind of ridiculous. Honeymoon could close by nomination time, McClure could be forgotten, Roger Rees could easily steal that "locked spot" with The Visit which is opening right on the cut off date. It's too early to predict any of this, especially a lock.
I feel by mid Feb-late March all the new shows will be previewing and I'll have a better idea as there are a lot of shows...10 musicals!
My very early predictions are:
Musical Fun Home Finding Neverland or Something Rotten Honeymoon in Vegas The Visit
Musical Revival On The Town On The 20th Century Side Show The King & I
OPENING NIGHTS:
MARCH 2015 5 - Fish in the Dark 8 - The Audience 12 - On the Twentieth Century 19 - The Heidi Chronicles
APRIL 2015 2 - Skylight 7 - Hand to God 8 - Gigi 9 - Wolf Hall & Bring Up the Bodies 12 - An American in Paris 14 - It Shoulda Been You 15 - Finding Neverland 16 - The King and I 19 - Fun Home 20 - Living on Love 21 - Doctor Zhivago 22 - Something Rotten! 23 - Airline Highway 23 - The Visit
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
After this little tempest behind the scenes with Neverland, who knows how the Tony nominating committee will react. The Weinstein action was against an apparent stalwart of the Broadway scene. Did Weinstein pick on the wrong person?
^true point...Harvey gets away and acts this way with the film industry but will these actions go against him (possibly so) with the Tony committee as there will be many new musicals opening up vying for that best new musical spot. Not sure if the show is good or bad but he is the force behind Neverland and wants many nods for his show but the question is will it get them?
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
I hope Weinstein wallows in his own crapulence, to quote Mr. C. Montgomery Burns.
The man doesn't know what he's doing. Firing a talented theatrical songwriting team and replacing them with a bunch of schlocky pop-meisters, and hiring Diane "The Empress Has No Clothes" Paulus does not a musical make. Having a dispute with the best PR firm on Broadway doesn't help either. Unless the show is a f*cking masterpiece, I can see him crying some salty tears come nomination day.
You have FUN HOME, the most critically acclaimed musical in recent memory, and THE VISIT, the last hurrah for K&E, and possibly Chita, vying for awards. I hope and think those shows mean more to the Tony folks than Weinstein's pipe dream of competing with Scott Rudin (an equally contemptuous fellow, but a better stage producer).
It's the work that counts. John Kander is busy working on KID VICTORY with Greg Pierce, set to open at the Signature. I'm sure he's not thinking about Tonys. I'm sure Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron are thinking about their next projects. And Chita? Well... But it'd be nice for some recognition for artistic brilliance.
As for Side Show and the girls (Em Padgett & Erin Davie) to be not nominated as one...I feel will deter there chances now for a nomination(s) and cancel one another out for this spot unfortunately.
As for Sting's The Last Ship it will be acknowledged with a nod for Best Score.
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
who were the other composers of finding neverland before? I think the show will get a few nods, even though it doesn't seem like he's doing it for the love of the show. Diane Paulus is a great director
All I can predict with conviction is Kelli O'Hara won't win, it will be Chenowith or Chita (probably Cheno). Poor O'Hara is the Susan Lucci of the Tonys.
Also, "Curious Dog" is a shoe in.
The rest is conjecture.
I think McClure might win for "Honeymoon", although I think Cerveris is a better performance in "Fun Home."
I loved Judy Kuhn in "Fun Home," but I think that Mary Louise Wilson stands a better chance, as that role is showy, and Judy's is very understated.
I doubt Danza will get a nom. His performance in "Honeymoon" is ghastly.
Most if not all of the tech awards (except costume) will go to "Curious."
I agree that Sting will get a nod for "Last Ship," but will lose to Tesori.
The "Side Show" girls don't stand a chance for a nom, because precedents says they have to be nominated together, and one of those girls was terrific, and the other was lousy.
Musical Revival is easily "20th Century."
Actress is an a play is easily Helen Mirren, and actor in a play is probably Jake Gylennhall.
I think that supporting actress in a play is a toss-up between Martha Plimpton and Annaliegh Ashford, with Ashford being my choice.
Although I haven't seen it, I'm giving Choreography to Warren Carlyle, because I think he's the only inventive choreographer working on Broadway today. I'm greatly looking forward to the day he becomes a definitive director/choreographer, because I think he's as good as Fosse, or Bennett, or Strohman.
Director of a play is obviously "Curious Dog," but director of a musical is more difficult. I haven't seen it, but I'm throwing my bone to Des McAnuff for "Zhivago," as he always does great work, and while "Fun Home" is terrific, it's not a director's show, and "Honeymoon in Vegas" was horrible hack work, and Scott Ellis nearly always gets things wrong.
I will probably be wrong on nearly everything, I usually am. This is just where i stand without seeing the new openings.