New York Times TONY voter poll? — Page 3

all_that_jazz said: "What the hell is with abstaining. Your a tony voter your job is to see the nominated musicals and vote on the ones eligible. How hard is that best of the 4 nominated. Spoiled pretentious idiot. If you cant handle the job decline it and let others do it."

I disagree emphatically...if you don't like any of the nominated shows -- overall, it was a rotten season for new works -- why vote for your least disliked? (On a personal note, I enjoyed TBV, did not love it the way many on this board did, but I would have voted for it were I a member of the club).

I think that issue applies equally to best play. Is HP really going to win because it is an excellent play or because Tiffany and crew did their jobs so expertly? It should win for best production -- an award they had for awhile in the 60's and which I thought at the time was stupid -- not best play.

Updated On: 6/8/18 at 10:41 AM

Kad said: "Disappointed there was no insight into the Featured performance races, which seem (to me) to be competitive across all 4 categories."

I know! I'm dying to see how Burtz vs. Lee looks

The Times poll of Tony voters plays it too safe. It predicts only 8 categories out of 26 categories, and they're the least riskiest ones. It doesn't even do the Featured actors and directors, let alone any of the designers. If you want predictions for ALL categories, check out GoldDerby.com or Time Out New York.

To me, the toughest category to call is Best Actor in a Musical. At GoldDerby.com, 6 experts are picking Slater; 6 are picking Henry, and just 2 are going for Shalhoub. (Right now, I'm down for Slater, but I might switch ... or not.) Notably, Time Out New York is predicting Henry. It's also picking Stachel for Featured.

I wonder what the biggest surprises will be. Last year, I didn't expect ''Come From Away's'' Christopher Ashley to win for Direction of a Musical. Could Michael Arden upset for ''Once on This Island''? And Michael Aronov winning for ''Oslo'' was a surprise, too. Is there a chance Anthony Boyle upsets Nathan Lane?

Finally, the Tonys (as usual) are telecast on a tape delay to the West Coast. Is there a site where they are going to be live-streamed?

Updated On: 6/8/18 at 12:24 PM

Considering how accurate the NY Times voter poll was and has been for years, I think we can safely say they reveal the winners three days before the actual ceremony. People have put too much stock in the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk trying to to turn them into like the Golden Globes or the various Guild Awards for the Oscars but there are just way too many differences in membership make-up for them to be accurate precursors in the same way. The only thing they tell you is how various people enjoy certain productions to gauge their likability, which is an informative insight but limited.

The New York Times poll is effective because it is a very controlled sample size unlike random polling for a Presidential election, it gets released too late for it to change voters' minds, and their sample sizes are getting too sizable to ignore and statistically significant.The only way this will stop being as accurate as it is is if the sample size decreases to a point where it's only sample an insignificantly sized sample or the participating Tony voters get together (all 150+ of them) and decide to trick the NY Times and give them wrong information, which will never happen.

Updated On: 6/11/18 at 10:03 AM

Are you talking about the Presidential election polls because many of them are. In fact the one that was not random was the most maligned and ended up being the one that got it right.

It's out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/theater/tony-awards-broadway-voter-survey-hadestown-ferryman.html?searchResultPosition=1

Hadestown is favored by what's described as a plurality for best musical, with a "solid, although not insurmountable lead," and The Ferryman is ahead for Best Play. The fact that voters who were underwhelmed by Hadestown are divided on an alternative choice is said to be helping its chances. The Prom apparently got the most second place votes, but it's not far ahead of Tootsie and Ain't Too Proud.

Oklahoma! is favored as the best musical revival over Kiss Me, Kate.

Play revival is too close to call between The Boys in the Band (supposedly a slight favorite), The Waverly Gallery, and All My Sons.

The expected favorites are who everyone expects in the lead acting categories. Bryan Cranston is reportedly in the lead for best actor.

The Times survey, as usual, doesn't get into best director, featured actors or other categories.

The survey contacted 123 Tony voters out of 831, a small increase from last year. Michael Paulson points out that the total number of voters, especially for plays, may be down this year because of the "requirement" that voters see every play/performer in each category. (I know, it's an honor system.)

Updated On: 6/7/19 at 03:40 AM

It's interesting. The article also stated:

"Keep in mind: This year, for the first time, voters are receiving personalized electronic ballots based on their self-reported attendance, meaning that they cannot vote in categories in which they have not confirmed seeing all the nominees. As a result, the number of ballots cast, particularly in play categories, is likely to be smaller than in past years."

This move mainly affects categories with plays since many were only on Broadway for a limited engagement. To vote for Best Play, for example, Tony voters must have come to NYC during the winter season to see Choir Boy; or see Boys in the Band a year ago to vote for Best Play revival. I do think it's more fair to do it this way (I just hope they communicated this to the Tony voters a year ago though at the start of the season.)

I wouldn't count out Oklahoma for orchestrations. Even though the production has been divisive, Daniel Kluger's musical work has been widely praised even by people who haven't liked the show.

I think the Tonys said they weren't going to check with the shows about who went because many voters have access to free tickets through other mechanisms (friends, work connections) that the theater wouldn't always know about.

billis2 said: "I think the Tonys said they weren't going to check with the shows about who went because many voters have access to free tickets through other mechanisms (friends, work connections) that the theater wouldn't always know about."



You’re probably right that these industry people have other means of getting comps, but it seems like they should be required to use their Tony Voter comps exactly for this reason - so it CAN be proved that they attended.

djoko84 said: "If a Tony voterdoesn't use their comps and instead get tickets by other means then they still don't get to vote in the category unless they can prove they attended the show. It's really not hard to figure out if a voter attended a show or not."

That is 100% wrong. The voter just has to go into the Tony website and log in and certify that they have seen a particular show. They do not have to use their designated Tony Voter seats, nor do they have to "prove" anything. It's still an "honor system" setup, but slightly better than what they used to have -- which was nothing.

There are 800+ voters, and Broadway seasons have dozens of eligible shows. Going through box office information to confirm tickets were picked up/scanned, or even something like having voters hold onto their used ticket stubs, would be extremely time consuming and onerous. Not to mention, this whole thing has a tight timeline.

Are there bad actors (no pun intended) in the voting pool, who skip shows or give away their tickets and vote anyway? Definitely. But I doubt there are enough of them for it to really make a major difference in final results.