Post-Tony nominations: Closing announcements and Grosses bumps?

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 10:50am

Here's a thread for the two extremes.

MY CLOSING PREDICTIONS:

- I'm guessing PARADISE SQUARE was poised to make an announcement tomorrow. And now they will want to reassess now that they have overperformed significantly with nominations, to see if it makes any dent in their dismal box office. (It won't.)

- HANGMEN (on sale thru June 1 and THE MINUTES (on sale thru June 24) are both looking bad, and we know the limited nominations won't make a huge dent.

- POTUS is the next likely contender, but it may still have some money in its reserve and want to see how its numbers do for a few weeks post-opening. I don't really expect it to make it to ceremony day.

- FOR COLORED GIRLS' future was set, and now seems to be in flux (Telecharge has it on sale through June 12, which is later than the announced closing date). EDIT: Closing June 5

- MRS. DOUBTFIRE will be gone by Labor Day or sooner. It only grossed $421,454 last week and got a sole Best Actor nomination. EDIT: Closing May 29

 

As for the grosses, who do we think will see the biggest bumps? A STRANGE LOOP has been building momentum and that will hopefully be reflected in its grosses next week. MJ and MR. SATURDAY NIGHT have room for improvement, too. PARADISE SQUARE is a big question mark. We know all the plays can stand to do better, but these nominations won't help all of them.

Updated On: 5/13/22 at 10:50 AM

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 11:00am

Paradise Square will close on June 19 following its impending shutout from any awards.

Funny Girl will stick around for at least several months, but Mrs. Doubtfire is toast. My target closing is August 14. 

Mr. Saturday Night will play out Crystal’s contract and close, and it’s possible The Music Man may do the same with Jackman. 

 

Updated On: 5/9/22 at 11:00 AM

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 11:20am

It's funny to consider that we're going to get last week's grosses today, and we'll inevitably be looking at them with the Tony noms in mind, despite the fact that they will have no bearing on this week's grosses. Like a little window into the very recent past, with a fresh layer of hindsight.

All that's to say, I think we'll all be very curious to see NEXT week's grosses. Until then, it's hard to discuss. But if you're looking for predictions:

I think the nominated plays will see a bigger increase than you're expecting, Ermendgarde. But still maybe not enough for them to recoup, considering they're already doing so poorly.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 11:27am

I agree that some of the nominated plays will see a bump, but there are so many of them and they're all doing so badly that it may be a negligible difference for some. It may be sort of proportional with how their current numbers are.

There's a world in which HANGMEN and AMERICAN BUFFALO should be performing a lot better.

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 11:32am

Regarding POTUS its producers would have to of been insane to think it stood any chances of getting a ton of nominations being a farce. Its also only been opened a week, and got a lot of great press and word of mouth from opening, so lets wait and see how its grosses are this week. I could see it turning into a Hand to God or The Play that Goes Wrong, where while not a SRO success is able to earn just enough to hit its weekly nut.

Add to that I can't imagine with having a cast of only 12 it costing more than $350K-$400K a week to run, if Come From Away can have a weekly nut of $450-$500K being a musical with a combined cast of 16, its hard to imagine POTUS being just as expensive to run. I know POTUS has "names" in its cast, but I still find it hard to believe any is being paid as such as,  I see POTUS playing through at least the Tony's, with some unfound hope that Rachel Dratch might pull of an upset to win.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 11:45am

bdn223 said: "I knowPOTUShas "names" in its cast, but I still find it hard to believe any is being paid as such as"

 

I was actually thinking it might be the reverse. I feel like the actors in POTUS are all sufficiently established in their respective fields that they would demand a higher pay than your average Broadway star, and it would be hard to refuse them considering they technically ARE banking on their names (or attempting to, at least). The actual fact of the matter is that none of them are significant box office draws, but I feel like they still had to be roped in with a solid paycheck. Obviously none of them are getting paid as much as an A-lister, but I would guess that the combined salaries of Williams, Dratch, DeLaria, Hough, and White equal out to something approximating the cost of a big-name movie star. While reaping none of the real rewards from it.

But of course, I don't actually know the numbers - it's just speculation.

 

[dramamama611]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 11:49am

I think Paradise has the most to gain from these noms - but largely because they are so low to begin with.  Will it be enough to see them thru the awards?  I guess that depends on how deep their pockets are. I can't see them winning - so seems like throwing away good money.

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 12:06pm

JBroadway said: "bdn223 said: "I knowPOTUShas "names" in its cast, but I still find it hard to believe any is being paid as such as"



I was actually thinking it might be the reverse. I feel like the actors in POTUS are all sufficiently established in their respective fields that they would demand a higher pay than your average Broadway star, and it would be hard to refuse them considering they technically ARE banking on their names (or attempting to, at least). The actual fact of the matter is that none of them are significant box office draws, but I feel like they still had to be roped in with a solid paycheck. Obviously none of them are getting paid as much as an A-lister, but I would guess that the combined salaries of Williams, Dratch, DeLaria, Hough, and White equal out to something approximating the cost of a big-name movie star. While reaping none of the real rewards from it.

But of course, I don't actually know the numbers - it's just speculation."

I agree that combined they likely equal out to a big named star, but still that's only $100K a week + backend. I am guessing all cast salaries combined for POTUS probably run $150K a week. Then add to that they aren't paying any musicians and have minimal crew backstage since its a play, so it isn't costing them a fortune to run. If Hand to God's nut was $250K and They Play that Goes Wrong was $300K, that latter of which had to pay for cast housing, which likely added a pretty penny to its weekly nut. Even with its "name" talent salaries, its hard to believe it costing more than $350K-$400K a week to run. 

 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 12:10pm

I assume the onstage cast of POTUS is favored-nations. In the eyes of agents –– not audiences –– these ladies are relatively similar in name-value (with perhaps the exception of Lilli Cooper), and they're being promoted as an ensemble. $25K a week each? The play came together quickly, and a way to close deals quickly is to make sure agents don't have major objections to the salaries. It's also going to have a higher ad budget than an established show like COME FROM AWAY. 

So before waivers, I reckon it costs something in the $450-550K range. And if anyone would like to shed more factual light on this, please do.

Updated On: 5/9/22 at 12:10 PM

[VintageSnarker]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 1:23pm

dramamama611 said: "I think Paradise has the most to gain from these noms - but largely because they are so low to begin with. Will it be enough to see them thru the awards? I guess that depends on how deep their pockets are. I can't see them winning - so seems like throwing away good money."

Were they somehow saving all their marketing for right now? I'm happy for them (especially for the acting nominations, choreography, and costumes) though the other nominations came as a big surprise. Maybe they were just looking for another "serious" show.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 1:34pm

VintageSnarker said: "Were they somehow saving all their marketing for right now? I'm happy for them (especially for the acting nominations, choreography, and costumes) though the other nominations came as a big surprise. Maybe they were just looking for another "serious" show."

PARADISE SQUARE has no money. It has been on life support since it started previews. This crop of nominations probably means they they now need to burn more money that will never be recouped (which means persuading whoever has been keeping them from closing 3 weeks ago to invest money not just into marketing, but also offsetting weekly losses). It is a burning hole. The financially right thing to do would have been closing it right after opening when the numbers were so poor. But passion often outweighs good financial sense.

As for why it was nominated so much, it's a really weak year for new musicals overall, and the nominators probably found more merit in this than in things like MRS. DOUBTFIRE. We were expecting things like Choreo and Score and Actress, and Best Musical was a possibility. But I will never understand these supporting actor, book, and design noms.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 1:49pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "As for why it was nominated so much, it's a really weak year for new musicals overall, and the nominators probably found more merit in this than in things like MRS. DOUBTFIRE."

 

Paradise Square being well-liked enough to get a Best Musical nomination - or even Best Book nomination - doesn't actually surprise me too much. Frankly, "a weak year for musicals" and "a weak year for musical Books" has become the rule, to which there are occasionally exceptions. But even in the best of times, the final 1-2 Best Musical and Best Books slots usually goes to notably weaker contenders. Filler nominations. So Paradise Square being a fairly ambitious, serious show, with some good qualities, and clearly some people who really enjoy it. Not hugely surprising to me.

What really surprises me is that it kicked Flying Over Sunset out of both of these categories. Recent Tony history has shown that they often favor more "artsy," sophisticated shows, even when they're divisive. So if they were looking for filler nominations (as noted above) it's wild to me that they went with the options they did. 

The only explanation is the simple, obvious one: that this crop of nominators happened to fall more on the positive side of Paradise Square, MJ, and Mr. Saturday Night, and/or happened to fall on the negative side of Flying Over Sunset; that a general predilection for more sophisticated, artsy shows won't always overcome the case-by-case situations where they just happen to like some individual shows more than others. 

Plus, maybe they felt like they already had 2 shows that filled their "artsy" quota, and they didn't need to throw a bone to the one they didn't actually like very much. 

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 1:53pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "PARADISE SQUARE has no money. It has been on life support since it started previews. This crop of nominations probably means they they now need to burn more money that will never be recouped (which means persuading whoever has been keeping them from closing 3 weeks ago to invest money not just into marketing, but also offsetting weekly losses). It is a burning hole. The financially right thing to do would have been closing it right after opening when the numbers were so poor. But passion often outweighs good financial sense."

Leap of Faith... both literally and the 2012 Broadway musical... 

 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 2:05pm

Yes, there are generally only 2-3 MAX really strong new musicals in a given season...which makes the inflated categories even more infuriating. The Best Musical category almost always has some "filler" nominees, and I wish the number in all categories was merit-based up to 5, not a minimum of 5 expanding to 6 or 7. I don't know if that's having nominators rank their choices 1-5 or something else. The Tonys should not be a participation trophy. I hope this year's situation sparks a major revision to the rulebook so we don't see a free-for-all like this again.

The Oscars have literally hundreds of eligible films each year and even more performances, yet only have 5 nominees in all categories except Best Picture.

Updated On: 5/9/22 at 02:05 PM

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 2:20pm

Are the nominators required to list their top 5? Or do they just select however many up to 5 that they want, and the votes are tallied that way? 

If it were me, I would keep the rule that allows an expansion of the category - because I do think there's value in allowing room for additional recognition when it's a particularly strong year - but I would NOT require the nominators to vote for 5 nominees if they don't want to. They should see each musical, and mark each one on a binary "yea or nay" tally of which ones should be nominated, with a limited of 5. And however many shows get above a certain percentage threshold of "yea" votes, should get in, even if that number is 7. 

[Auggie27]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 2:45pm

Is there a business model for Paradise? Can’t think of one. A comeback that overrides both negative critical reception and audience indifference? Can Tony recognition offset an absent profile for ticket buyers as consumers? Is it even selling on TDF anymore, let alone TKTS? I’m not a fan but never expected numbers like last week. Who would a pricey Tony campaign target, when the show simply doesn’t interest the ticket buying public? 

[Fosse76]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 3:00pm

bdn223 said: "Come From Away can have a weekly nut of $450-$500K being a musical with a combined cast of 16"

Come From Away has 19 members in the current cast (18 normally, plus1 from the tour). Their weekly running costs exceed what was posted above (excluding the additional COVID-related costs). But even if that number was accurate, there is no one of note in the cast who could command a high salary, so you can't really compare that aspect. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 3:15pm

Fosse76 said: "bdn223 said: "Come From Awayhas 19 members in the current cast (18 normally, plus1 from the tour). Their weekly running costs exceed what was posted above (excluding the additional COVID-related costs). But evenifthat number was accurate, there is no one of note in the cast who could command a high salary, so you can't really compare that aspect."

There's a poster on here who was dead set from data that the running cost was under 500, which I have always thought was delusional. In any case, it's not comparable to a new play.

[DrMonicaDeMoneco]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 3:25pm

I still think PARADISE SQUARE is going to post closing tomorrow.  It hasn't made any $$ and any bump from the nominations (some deserved, some not) will not help keep this musical afloat.  

[VintageSnarker]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 3:41pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "PARADISE SQUARE has no money. "

Not marketing budget, marketing effort. I don't know what they've been doing to sell this show up until now besides papering and hoping for good word of mouth.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 3:44pm

I'll be surprised if Mrs. Doubtfire even makes it through the summer. I'm not sure it will make it through the month. I do imagine Paradise Square will hang on now through the Tonys but still close early-mid summer. Funny Girl should be fine for now but I think it's long term chances are def hurt by today.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 3:51pm

It is a losing battle. When the budget is limited, that limits all marketing efforts. No media publication wants to write about the show (or feature the cast in performance). Even if they had money for ad spends, the creative is dismal. The show was badly reviewed and doesn't have great WOM. And above all, the producer leading all the efforts is a madman.

We've all been lamenting this show's producing strategy since Chicago.

(And standard caveat that just because you don't see an effort doesn't mean that one isn't being made. It's usually just that the effort isn't translating to sales.)

Updated On: 5/9/22 at 03:51 PM

[joshdog2014]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 4:28pm

Is there a front runner for choreography? Seems like that would be the most likely upset win for Paradise Square (although of course that still wouldn’t make a dent)

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 4:39pm

joshdog2014 said: "Is there a front runner for choreography? Seems like that would be the most likely upset win for Paradise Square (although of course that still wouldn’t make a dent)"

Seems like a good place to award MJ (which could still win Best Musical). I haven't seen for colored girls YET, is it win-worthy?

[VintageSnarker]

Posted: 5/9/22 at 5:00pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Seems like a good place to award MJ (which could still win Best Musical). I haven't seenfor colored girlsYET, is it win-worthy?"

It's difficult to say. In general, I'd categorize Camille's choreography as more effective. It filled the space, added to the play, and was only extraneous in a few moments. Whereas Paradise Square was somewhat overchoreographed (even compared with Black No More) but reached higher heights in its best moments. I don't think the play choreography is so remarkable that it would naturally overcome musical spectacle... but I also wouldn't be mad if it did.