Riedel's Tony nom predictions

[tazber]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 6:19am

Take 'em for what they're worth.

Some highlights:

- He sees Raisin scoring lots of acting nods (4 to be exact).

- A couple of the Casa Valentina actors should score noms.

- Oddly he doesn't mention Zachary Quinto, Cherry Jones, Mark Rylance, or Audra McDonald for acting noms, but he's not listing entire categories so maybe he assumes they are givens.

- Despite Isherwood's love for Realistic Joneses he doesn't see it getting a nom for play.

- Gentleman's Guide, Beautiful, and (probably) After Midnight are sure bets. If/Then, Aladdin, or Bullets will fill out the category.

We'll see how right or wrong he is on Tuesday!

Link

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 7:30am

He thinks Roger Rees scores a nomination? Oy. These are bad.

[themysteriousgrowl]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 8:18am

Slightly OT, but this morning I was listening to the Cherry Jones episode of ATW’s “Downstage Center,” recorded during the run of DOUBT in 2005.

She’s asked about roles she still wants to tackle. She responds that that’s a hard question to answer, though people often suggest she should play Blanche DuBois, to which she replies that she’s just “not a Blanche.”

She then says that Doug Hughes keeps getting on her to do THE GLASS MENAGERIE, but she has no interest in playing Amanda, finds the play “cloying,” and, because she’s Southern, sees nothing “exotic” in it.

Given where she sits just ahead of Tony noms this year, I found that interesting. (Though, to her providence’s credit, she follows up by saying, basically, “Who knows? In five years, I may be champing at the bit to play Amanda.” [She actually says “chomping.”])

[east side story]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 8:21am

I was just watching Cherry's appearance on Theatre Talk a day or two ago, filmed when Menagerie was playing, and even then she said she was never a fan of the play. It was not until her parents passed away, and her director insisted she take a stab at it that she started to perhaps appreciate the play a bit more.

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 8:34am

I really don't see why Riedel sees Bridges as a non-contender.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 8:45am

Jones has also said that she wanted desperately to play Laura and that when it was clear she was too old and had never done it, she had no interest in doing the play at all.

[LYLS3637]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:07am

I can't believe it's come to this-- I actually want Riedel to be right re: Best Musical. As much as I want IF/THEN to score a best musical nom, I've all but lost hope.

Reading the rest of his predictions hasn't restored any of my faith either...

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:33am

When reading Michael's column it's always worth remembering that he is a columnist and that there is always an agenda behind anything he writes- whether or not he is being paid (in some capacity) to endorse certain shows at the expense of others is open for debate, but in the case of predicting shows, being accurate (as opposed to influencing potential voters) is not his main motive-- probably one reason why his hypothesizes rarely play out.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:38am

Seriously, Beautiful is a shoo in? I really hope not. Though I loved the performance of Jessie Mueller, the show itself was a snooze, with an incredibly unintereesting book. I would have rather gone to see Jesse doing a one woman show featuring Carole King music. And it's not as if this show had an original score, obviously. I'd much prefer Bullets, which while also a jukebox musical at least has songs that most are not familiar with given their era. Couple that with great choreography and from a sheer entertainment standpoint, Bullets is far superior and more deserving of a Tony nod. In my opinion.

Updated On: 4/25/14 at 09:38 AM

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:40am

MR's strong championing of BEAUTIFUL is definitely suspect-- it's definitely not the front runner he is cheering it as.

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:41am

I think Beautiful is certainly a safe bet for a nomination.

I'm more wary of his championing of Bullets. Remember how it was going to be the second coming of The Producers? A line down the block?

[StickIt]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:43am

Bullets? I was more bored at Bullets than any other show this season. I'd rather see Bridges and Rocky pick up nominations (why does Riedel seem to count them out entirely?) over Bullets. How you can take such a hilarious movie and it turn it into a practically laugh-free 2.5 hours is a mystery to me, but having loved the movie for more than a decade, I was really disappointed.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:46am

Not mentioning Bridges, Audra, Menagerie and getting in a dig at Realistic Jonses sounds more like he is having an issue with Jeffrey Richards and Jerry Frankel who produced all of those shows.

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:48am

I'd really love for someone to do some investigative journalism into Riedel.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 9:54am

This is going to be quite a strange year for nominations. There seems to be a mixture of "meh" and excitement.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 10:04am

Unlike critics groups that talk and collectively come to agreement on nominations, it's my understanding that the Tony nominating committee has no such group discussions regarding their collective decisions- which is perhaps one reason why the nominations often contain some surprises.

This is a year in which the nominations could either fall on the side of ambitious but flawed or audience pleasing and mediocre-- I hope they side with the former.

[tazber]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 10:12am

Thanks for all the insight Michael Bennett.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Beautiful gets a nom, but I wouldn't say it's a shoo-in.

Just curious:

What do you guys think the chances are that After Midnight could win Best Musical?

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 10:17am

Most seem to think the current race is between MIDNGHT and GUIDE for Best Musical- so I'd say it has a decent shot at winning.

[LYLS3637]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 10:19am

Michael Bennett-- Which shows do you think will fill out the Best Musical category?

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 10:22am

GUIDE
MIDNIGHT
BULLETS
BRIDGES
BEAUTIFUL/ALADDIN

[LYLS3637]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 10:38am

Thanks Michael! Those are ones I felt were in the running which is a shame since I found BULLETS incredibly disappointing. Guess I'll be rooting for BRIDGES.

[Phantom of London]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 11:03am

Could this be a re-run of the 2000 Tonys? Where Contact scooped the big one, despite being a musical revue just like just like After Midnight is this year.

Then the more obscure shows got nominateed like James Joyce Is Dead, Swing!, The Wild Party, versus this year, Beautiful, Bridges, Guide, where there was a shut out for the big musical Aida ala Aladdin, Rocky, Bullets.

[GilmoreGirlO2]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 11:12am

I agree with Riedel’s guesses on those 4 performance nominations for “Raisin.” (Although, I actually think Washington, Rose, and Okeonedo are surer shots than Jackson.)

Although “Beautiful” has certainly gained some steam and attention in the recent weeks, I think it’s an odd choice for a shoo-in. Much of the critical and audience reception that I read and heard when it opened was very much on the “meh” side. Jessie, surely, earned herself a nomination, but the show never seemed like a contender. Only recently, with its sales doing so well, did it seem to start popping up as a real possibility. Maybe this is due to the majority of musicals that opened after “Beautiful” receiving reviews that were all over the place, but, to me, it seems more a result of it doing well at the box office.

I also think he is way off-base on counting “Bridges” totally out of the running.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 11:24am

The fact that Beautiful is doing extremely well at the box office isn't necessarily an indicator that it will be warmly received by the Tony nominating committee; historically they have not been swayed by box office making the decisions.

I think it's more question of whether the demographic of the Tony nominating committee lines up with the audience base for Beautidul. If so the nostalgia could carry it to a best musical nomination. But craft wise I think it's pretty far down the list when comparing it to the other potential nominees.

[GilmoreGirlO2]

Posted: 4/25/14 at 11:41am

MB, I agree with everything you said – I don’t know if it will have any effect on the actual nominations. But, I think the strong sales have certainly put more attention on the show recently and I feel like, as the grosses have continued to rise, I have noticed many more on here counting it as a nominee contender more than they did earlier in the season. I don’t mean to assert that people are directly thinking “Doing well at the box office = Tony nomination” – more just that, as a result of its successful sales, it has put the show in people’s minds more than before and, I think, is making them take the show a little more seriously (and possibly causing them to forget the tepid critical reception). (I apologize, I know this sounds a bit convoluted, but I’m having a hard time putting my thoughts into words.)

I wouldn’t put my money on its nomination, though. But, you’re right; I think it will come down to a nostalgia factor with the nominees.