Tony Prediction Close Calls

What are your opinions about these likely close calls?

COSTUME DESIGN (MUSICAL)

It seems to be between Santo Loquasto of HELLO DOLLY! and Catherine Zuber of WAR PAINT? With Paloma Young of NATASHA PIERRE as a dark horse.

SCENIC DESIGN (PLAY)

I just have no idea about this one, but I think the safest bet is JITNEY with Nigel Hook of THE PLAY THAT GOES WRONG as a nice surprise.

SCENIC DESIGN (MUSICAL)

So many people talk like Mimi Lien of NATASHA PIERRE is a lock. I think it's closer than that, with HELLO DOLLY! as a contender. But this category might actually offer the biggest surprise of the night with Rob Howell of GROUNDHOG DAY pulling in from out of nowhere but proving that Tony voters have eyes.

ORCHESTRATIONS

Larry Hochman of HELLO DOLLY! is the safest bet. But I think Dave Malloy of NATASHA PIERRE is going to get a lot of votes and may surprise.

MUSICAL

This has already been discussed a lot on this board. It's betwen DEH and CFA. I think most viewers expect DEH to win. But personally I think CFA is going to pull an upset. DEH is the LA LA LAND of 2017 Tony's and CFA is the MOONLIGHT.

Thoughts?

Rachel Bay was the favorite in her category but Jenn Colella's momentum is powerful, making this a very tight race.

Hochman's work on Hello Dolly is fine, but he essentially reduced the original charts for a smaller orchestra, right? I'm not saying that's easy, of course, but you already have a solid framework that Malloy wouldn't have with a new score.

As much as I loved Dolly, that's kind of how I feel about all of its technical nominations. I know it isn't straight-up recreation, but it just feels so...what you'd expect from the show. It's good work, just not surprising or terribly interesting, and I think there are worthier contenders for those awards.

What do you think about DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)?

I think Michael Greif's early lead may have faded and I think RACHEL CHAVKIN might be the pick that makes a lot of Tony voters feel hip.

JimmyMcVideo said: "What do you think about DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)?

I think Michael Greif's early lead may have faded and I think RACHEL CHAVKIN might be the pick that makes a lot of Tony voters feel hip.



"

Did he ever have the lead? I think Chavkin has rightfully so, been the frontrunner for the longest time.

I've seen more than a few people predict Michael Grief, largely on the basis that it's rare for a show to win Best Director if the production itself doesn't win. It's certainly possible, but I think Chavkin's work is impressive enough that she has a great chance to win. If she does, it would be a little like John Doyle winning for the Sweeney revival- the production itself wasn't rewarded, but the directorial vision was so strong that it didn't make sense not to give him the award.

You hit it on the head comparing it to LaLa Land and Moonlight. The better movie loses and the one that is boring as hell wins. Good job. A+

Updated On: 6/9/17 at 05:41 PM

bexplex said: "You hit it on the head comparing it to LaLa Land and Moonlight. The better movie loses and the one that is boring as hell wins. Good job. A+



"

Valentina3 said: "Wait bexplex - you're saying La La Land was a better movie than Moonlight? .... okay (it is not)."

Yeah, not even close.

Irene Malloy?

Jimmy McVideo, I agree with many of your close calls, but Mimi Lien's amazing set to ''The Great Comet'' is a slam-dunk to win.

Costume Design of a Musical: I'm not sure why so many folks are predicting ''Hello, Dolly!'' If Warren Carlyle got so much grief for recycling Gower Champion's choreography, aren't Santo Loquasto's costumes pretty close to Freddy Wittop's originals (except Loquasto's are brighter and more neon-hued)?

Scenic Design of a Play: ''The Play That Goes Wrong'' could win because its set really falls apart, but it's the only Tony nomination for that show. The question is: Will enough Tony voters have seen it? Or will they throw this award to the play they love more, like ''Jitney'' or ''Oslo''? (Same concerns about Lighting.)

Orchestrations: To me, it's between ''Bandstand'' and ''Great Comet.'' I'm thinking it could go to Dave Malloy because it's the only way to recognize his work (since he probably won't win Book or Score).

Best Musical: It might be too close to call, but if you check out the Tony predictions at GoldDerby.com, it's a slam-dunk for ''Dear Evan Hansen'': 15 out of 17. TheaterMania's David Gordon and I are the only ones predicting ''Come From Away'' (and we still have time until tomorrow to join the ''Hansen'' bandwagon).

Funny that you should compare ''Moonlight'' to ''Come From Away'' as the upset choice. Both ''La La Land,'' and ''Dear Evan Hansen,'' the heavy favorites, are Pasek and Paul's works.

By the way, here's a link to the Tony predix at GoldDerby.com:

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/tony-awards-2017/best-musical/

Updated On: 6/10/17 at 01:44 PM

The costume race is between Great Comet and War Paint. I don't see how Hello Dolly is even in the discussion. Yes, they're very nice, but as others have stated there's nothing "new" about them.

I also feel that Dave Malloy has an edge in Best Orchestrations, not only because he 100% deserves the award (regardless of your thoughts on the score, the orchestrations are utterly amazing) but because he's almost certainly not getting Score, and definitely not Book, so I could see the voters being more inclined to give him Orchestrations so that he doesn't walk away empty-handed.

CurtainPullDowner said: "Gold Derby has Colella and Jones neck and neck. Now that';s a race."

Jeez, I don't understand how. I can't even remember anything Colella did apart from her solo and even that was just sung nicely. Jones isn't my choice either but between the two there's no comparison.