"If Phillipa had been put in featured, there is a strong chance that her and Renee would split the votes and neither of them would win."
Phillipa has not received nearly as much acclaim as Renee has, there is a very small chance they would have split the votes. Renee is the real female star of the show and her chances of winning would probably be about the same even if Phillipa was in the same category.
I agree with PalJoey. Shuffle Along could be a huge hit, so I think it's hard to really predict the musical award nominees until we have some idea of the production.
I would agree that Renee has generally received more acclaim than Phillipa but not far more. In most reviews/reports I've seen people have mentioned the two together saying that they both performed the female roles extremely well. I definitely think she would get votes if she was in featured. Personally, Phillipa's performance was my favorite of the entire casts. It's difficult to compare the two because Phillipa has a lot more to do but 'Satisfied' is such a star moment for Renee that is unmatched by any of Phillipa's songs.
However, even if Renee had receieved 100x more acclaim than Phillipa, that just gives more reason for Phillipa to be placed in leading rather than featured. I don't think she will win in either category, but Renee will definitely have a stronger chance without Phillipa with her.
TerrenceIsTheMann said: "I agree with PalJoey. Shuffle Along could be a huge hit, so I think it's hard to really predict the musical award nominees until we have some idea of the production."
We also don't even know if it will end up being eligible as a new show or a revival, nor which of the male cast members will be eligible in lead or featured yet.
of course you are only summarizing likely noms for those shows already out
excited people are also discussing the upcoming spring shows like shuffle
and of course, there is lots of buzz about waitress and another potential nom for jessie mueller and other elements of the show, and also american psycho with amazing cast and interesting score, and whether Bright Star will catch fire as well, and some tuck everlasting fans that think that show may generate some noms, and she loves me cast and show as well
^I'm just waiting until any of those shows start playing on Broadway, where we'll have a better idea of how they'll turn out. But I will give my thoughts on a couple of them.
Tuck Everlasting-It's directed & choreographed by Casey Nicholaw. Almost every musical he has directed on Broadway (The Drowsy Chaperone, The Book of Mormon, Aladdin, & Something Rotten!) was Tony nominated for Best Musical. Plus, from a couple of the songs I heard, it sounds like it has potential (though I also said the same thing about Doctor Zhivago last year, and we all saw how that turned out).
Waitress-I saw the original film last year, and it seemed like a perfect film to musicalize. It should definitely be getting a lot of attention now that it is the first Broadway musical to have an all female creative team. If it gets Tony nominated for Best Musical alongside shows like Hamilton, On Your Feet!, and School of Rock, it could end up being the most mainstream Tony Awards ever.
The first half of the 2015-16 Broadway season is now complete!
Of all the shows that have opened so far (including off-Broadway shows making transfers in the spring), what do you guys think has the best chances of Tony nominations this spring based on critical reviews and/or industry buzz?
Here's my list:
Best Musical: Hamilton On Your Feet! School of Rock: The Musical
Best Play: Eclipsed-Danai Gurira The Humans-Stephen Karam King Charles III-Mike Bartlett
Best Revival of a Musical: The Color Purple Fiddler on the Roof Spring Awakening
Best Revival of a Play: A View From the Bridge
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical: Alex Brightman-School of Rock: The Musical Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical: Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple Phillipa Soo-Hamilton Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play: Reed Birney-The Humans Tim Pigott-Smith-King Charles III Mark Strong-A View From the Bridge
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play: Annaleigh Ashford-Sylvia Jayne Houdyshell-The Humans Laurie Metcalf-Misery Lupita Nyong’o-Eclipsed
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical: Daveed Diggs-Hamilton Jonathan Groff-Hamilton Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical: Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple Lesli Margherita-Dames at Sea
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play: Richard Goulding-King Charles III
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play: Phoebe Fox-A View From the Bridge Nicola Walker-A View From the Bridge Lydia Wilson-King Charles III
Best Direction of a Musical: Michael Arden-Spring Awakening John Doyle-The Color Purple Thomas Kail-Hamilton Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Direction of a Play: Rupert Goold-King Charles III Joe Mantello-The Humans Liesl Tommy-Eclipsed Ivo van Hove-A View From the Bridge
Best Original Score: Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda School of Rock: The Musical-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
Best Book of a Musical: Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda On Your Feet!-Alexander Dinelaris School of Rock: The Musical-Julian Fellowes
Best Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton JoAnn M. Hunter-School of Rock: The Musical Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
Best Orchestrations: Joseph Joubert-The Color Purple Alex Lacamoire-Hamilton Andrew Lloyd Webber-School of Rock: The Musical
Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Howell Binkley-Hamilton Jane Cox-The Color Purple Donald Holder-Fiddler on the Roof Natasha Katz-School of Rock: The Musical Kenneth Posner-On Your Feet!
Best Lighting Design of a Play: Jon Clark-King Charles III Jennifer Schriever-Eclipsed Justin Townsend-The Humans Jan Versweyveld-A View From the Bridge
Best Scenic Design of a Musical: John Doyle-The Color Purple David Korins-Hamilton Michael Yeargan-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Scenic Design of a Play: Beowulf Boritt-Therese Raquin David Korins-Misery Clint Ramos-Eclipsed Tom Scutt-King Charles III David Zinn-The Humans
Best Costume Design of a Musical: ESosa-On Your Feet! Ann Hould-Ward-The Color Purple Paul Tazewell-Hamilton Catherine Zuber-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Costume Design of a Play: Jane Greenwood-Therese Raquin Clint Ramos-Eclipsed
I doubt Dames At Sea will be remembered come Tony time. same for S.A.
The thing is, besides being an utter toad of a human being, Riedel usually has the least knowledge of the topic in the room. He doesn't usually understand the content or approach of a show, and is always completely and unfailingly socially ignorant, which makes it really infuriating when Susan can't get a word in edgewise. A definitive mansplainer; it's always painful when he has female guests. I watch the show sporadically when I really want to see a guest, because it's the only theatre talkshow we have, but it would be so much better without this hateful clown in a dadcoat. (thanks ScaryWarhol)
Laurie Metcalf was indeed excellent in Misery, but I can't help but feel like the whole production will be overlooked. I think Nina Arianda is in a similar situation. I think both actresses gave nomination-worthy performances, but might be overlooked. I also don't see Houdyshell getting nominated, personally. I think Lupita is a sure-thing. And though I hate to admit it, Annaleigh probably is too (as I've said before, I'm not a fan).
Of course, we have yet to see Jessica Lange and Sophie Okonedo. Jessica Lange in particular is in an incredibly nominate-able role. Unless she turns out to be really bad, I can't see them overlooking anyone in that mountain of a role.
Houdyshell is a favorite and is excellent in The Humans, so I'd expect a nomination. However, the whole show is an ensemble piece, so I imagine the cast will all be considered featured.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.
I think Houdyshell has an excellent chance in Featured - the younger daughter seems more the lead of the show and Jayne's artful performance supports the others around her. Would love her nominated in either capacity.
aaaaaa15 said: "As much as I'd love to see Soo win a Tony for Eliza (personally I thought she was the best out of the entire cast), I don't think she would have won in Featured or Leading. Featured would have split the votes with her and Renee. It will be a shame for her if Hamilton wins Leading Actor, Featured Actor and Featured Actress and not Leading Actress as it may very well do. Of course, she will be able to console herself with the fact that she's in Hamilton.
I can't help thinking she should be thrilled to be nominated. Despite the decision to put her into the leading actress category, it IS a supporting role. And the competition is already looking to be very strong (Erivo, Mueller, Villafane, and not yet seen MacDonald and Benanti). She may not even get nominated.
Best Musical: Hamilton On Your Feet! School of Rock Waitress
Potential Spoiler: Tuck Everlasting
Best Revival of a Musical: The Color Purple Fiddler on the Roof Spring Awakening
Potential Spoiler: She Loves Me
Lead Actor in a Musical: Alex Brightman-School of Rock Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton Benjamin Walker-American Psycho
Potential Spoiler: Andrew Keenan-Bolger-Tuck Everlasting
Lead Actress in a Musical: Laura Benanti-She Loves Me Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple Audra McDonald-Shuffle Along, or, the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed Jessie Mueller-Waitress Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!
Potential Spoiler: Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Featured Actor in a Musical: Gavin Creel-She Loves Me Daveed Diggs-Hamilton Jonathan Groff-Hamilton Christopher Jackson-Hamilton Terrence Mann-Tuck Everlasting
Potential Spoiler: Paul Alexander Nolan-Bright Star
Featured Actress in a Musical: Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple Carolee Carmello-Tuck Everlasting Renee Elsie Goldsberry-Hamilton Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me
Potential Spoiler: Sierra Boggess-School of Rock
Best Direction of a Musical: Michael Arden-Spring Awakening John Doyle-The Color Purple Thomas Kail-Hamilton Diane Paulus-Waitress Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Book of a Musical: Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda On Your Feet!-Alexander Dinelaris School of Rock-Julian Fellowes Waitress-Jessie Nelson
Potential Spoiler: Tuck Everlasting-Claudia Shear & Tim Federle
Best Original Score: Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda School of Rock-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater Tuck Everlasting-Music By Chris Miller, Lyrics By Nathan Tysen Waitress-Music & Lyrics By Sara Bareilles
Potential Spoiler: Bright Star-Music By Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Lyrics By Edie Brickell
Best Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton Savion Glover-Shuffle Along, or, the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening Hofesh Shecter-Fiddler on the Roof Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
Jeffrey, I think you make some very smart choices in your predictions (again, with the limited knowledge of it being only January!). Personally, I do think that Phillipa stands a much better chance of getting a leading actress nom than Villafañe. I also think there'll be four Revival noms this year instead of three like you predict, and that She Loves Me will snag one in addition to the three you expect will.
BroadwayConcierge said: "I also think there'll be four Revival noms this year instead of three like you predict""
Though that is a possibility, it's somewhat unlikely. Since there are only 5 eligible revivals, the default number of nominees will be 3. I might not have the details quite right here, but I believe that in order for there to be a 4th, the production with the 4th highest number of votes has to be only 3 or fewer votes behind the production in 3rd place.
Also, shoot, I forgot to mention in my last post responding to Jeffrey's predictions—Shuffle Along isn't in either of your Best Musical or Revival categories. I think that'll be a lock, it just depends which one it goes into!
^If Shuffle Along ends up being eligible as a revival, then the nominators will be given four slots to fill as there would be six musical revivals eligible this season (The Color Purple, Dames at Sea, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, Shuffle Along..., and Spring Awakening).
Personally, I do think that Phillipa stands a much better chance of getting a leading actress nom than Villafañe.
If Phillipa ends up riding on the wave of support for Hamilton, then I could see it being possible. We'll just have to see how all the potential candidates stack up. Thank goodness the Administration Committee changed the rules last year where if there is a tie in the nominating process, the numbers shall be expanded.
Shuffle Along isn't in either of your Best Musical or Revival categories. I think that'll be a lock.
While it sounds like it could be on paper, we have yet to see if the show will even live up to its potential.
My prediction is that Shuffle Along will be considered a Revival. The press release a few months ago said the full original show would be presented along with additional details about the making of it (downplaying the new elements much more than the original announcement did). My completely uneducated prediction is that they're going to downplay the new stuff and try to bill it as a revival, and they'll succeed.
I have absolutely no basis or knowledge to make any real prediction, so I didn't say I was predicting that Leslie Odom Jr. would be placed in lead, even though I thought it in my head. My uneducated guess ended up being right there, so I'm joining in the predictions just for fun. :)
Here are my non-predictions but rather a list of what/who I would nominate/vote for in my near-perfect world so far based only on what I've seen. I'm not including anything I haven't seen, which doesn't mean they're not deserving. Note that in my perfect world there is no limit on the number of nominations. Of course, it's not a perfect world because I haven't seen everything, and in a perfect world I would. Also in a perfect world I'd be able to listen to Leslie Odom Jr. sing any song live on demand, but I feel like that's asking too much.
Best Musical:
Hamilton (Win)
School of Rock
(I missed Amazing Grace and Allegiance. I expect several of the spring shows to be added to this list, but I doubt any of them will take away my vote for Hamilton.)
Best Revival of a Musical:
Spring Awakening
Dames at Sea
The Color Purple (win, but it's close between this and Spring Awakening)
Fiddler
(Yes, in my perfect world every musical revival so far gets nominated. I also expect to love She Loves Me, and Shuffle Along, so I guess in my perfect world 100% of the shows could be nominated.)
New Play;
King Charles III
I expect one of the spring shows like Blackbird or Eclipsed will take the top spot for me, but we'll see.
(I missed China Doll, and haven't yet seen Our Mother's Brief Affair--probably won't either.)
Revival of a Play:
Sylvia
Noises Off (win)
(I missed Old Times, Fool for Love, and Gin Game. The fact that View from the Bridge is missing from this list is exactly why these aren't predictions. I fully expect that to be nominated, and likely win. Good for it, but it just wasn't my cup of tea. And I don't expect Sylvia to actually be nominated, but I loved it.)
Best Actor in a Musical:
Leslie Odom Jr - Hamilton (win)
Danny Burstein - Fiddler
Alex Brightman - School of Rock
Austin P. McKenzie - Spring Awakening
(Lin-Manuel Miranda should ABSOLUTELY win the creative awards for Hamilton, but I think there are other actors more deserving from a performance standpoint.)
Best Actress in a Musical:
Cynthia Erivo - Color Purple (win)
Philippa Soo - Hamilton
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton (tie for win)
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton (tie for win)
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton
Oak - Hamilton (Not going to try to actually spell his name...)
Kyle Scatliffe - Color Purple
Adam Kantor - Fiddler
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Renee Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton (win)
Andrea Burns - On Your Feet
Mara Davi - Dames at Sea
Lesli Margherita - Dames at Sea
Jennifer Hudson - Color Purple
Danielle Brooks - Color Purple
Samantha Massell - Fiddler
(My what a year for the ladies! And the spring shows to come are sure to bring some crazy competition to this and the leading category....)
Best Actor in a Play:
Tim Pigott-Smith - King Charles III
Mark Strong - View from the Bridge (win)
(Again I expect the spring will bring a lot more stellar performances.)
Best Actress in a Play:
Kiera Knightly - Therese Raquin
Laurie Metcalfe - Misery
Annaleigh Ashford - Sylvia (win)
Andrea Martin - Noises Off
(I'm so excited for some of the spring performances)
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Robert Sella - Sylvia
David Furr - Noises Off
Richard Goulding - King Charles III
(Can't really pick a winner from these --they were all good but I'm still waiting for a wow performance...)
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Megan Hilty - Noises Off (win)
(Note that Lydia Wilson, but she was out of King Charles III when I saw it.)
Can't wait for my next trip to see the upcoming shows!!!!