"If Phillipa had been put in featured, there is a strong chance that her and Renee would split the votes and neither of them would win."
Phillipa has not received nearly as much acclaim as Renee has, there is a very small chance they would have split the votes. Renee is the real female star of the show and her chances of winning would probably be about the same even if Phillipa was in the same category.
.
You have to factor in wins for Shuffle Along:
Audra MacDonald: BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Brian Stokes Mitchell: BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Billy Porter: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
George Wolfe: BEST BOOK
George Wolfe: BEST DIRECTOR
Savion Glover: BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Broadway Star Joined: 9/28/15
I agree with PalJoey. Shuffle Along could be a huge hit, so I think it's hard to really predict the musical award nominees until we have some idea of the production.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/31/15
I would agree that Renee has generally received more acclaim than Phillipa but not far more. In most reviews/reports I've seen people have mentioned the two together saying that they both performed the female roles extremely well. I definitely think she would get votes if she was in featured. Personally, Phillipa's performance was my favorite of the entire casts. It's difficult to compare the two because Phillipa has a lot more to do but 'Satisfied' is such a star moment for Renee that is unmatched by any of Phillipa's songs.
However, even if Renee had receieved 100x more acclaim than Phillipa, that just gives more reason for Phillipa to be placed in leading rather than featured. I don't think she will win in either category, but Renee will definitely have a stronger chance without Phillipa with her.
Updated On: 12/12/15 at 06:03 PM
TerrenceIsTheMann said: "I agree with PalJoey. Shuffle Along could be a huge hit, so I think it's hard to really predict the musical award nominees until we have some idea of the production."
We also don't even know if it will end up being eligible as a new show or a revival, nor which of the male cast members will be eligible in lead or featured yet.
Broadway Star Joined: 9/4/13
PalJoey said: "
You have to factor in wins for Shuffle Along:
Audra MacDonald: BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Brian Stokes Mitchell: BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Billy Porter: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
George Wolfe: BEST BOOK
George Wolfe: BEST DIRECTOR
Savion Glover: BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
"
They don't even have a complete show yet. So yeah there is that!
Broadway Star Joined: 9/22/14
I would say factor in potential noms instead of wins
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/27/14
its a great and thoughtful list, jeffrey.
of course you are only summarizing likely noms for those shows already out
excited people are also discussing the upcoming spring shows like shuffle
and of course, there is lots of buzz about waitress and another potential nom for jessie mueller and other elements of the show, and also american psycho with amazing cast and interesting score, and whether Bright Star will catch fire as well, and some tuck everlasting fans that think that show may generate some noms, and she loves me cast and show as well
^I'm just waiting until any of those shows start playing on Broadway, where we'll have a better idea of how they'll turn out. But I will give my thoughts on a couple of them.
Tuck Everlasting-It's directed & choreographed by Casey Nicholaw. Almost every musical he has directed on Broadway (The Drowsy Chaperone, The Book of Mormon, Aladdin, & Something Rotten!) was Tony nominated for Best Musical. Plus, from a couple of the songs I heard, it sounds like it has potential (though I also said the same thing about Doctor Zhivago last year, and we all saw how that turned out).
Waitress-I saw the original film last year, and it seemed like a perfect film to musicalize. It should definitely be getting a lot of attention now that it is the first Broadway musical to have an all female creative team. If it gets Tony nominated for Best Musical alongside shows like Hamilton, On Your Feet!, and School of Rock, it could end up being the most mainstream Tony Awards ever.
The first half of the 2015-16 Broadway season is now complete!
Of all the shows that have opened so far (including off-Broadway shows making transfers in the spring), what do you guys think has the best chances of Tony nominations this spring based on critical reviews and/or industry buzz?
Here's my list:
Best Musical:
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock: The Musical
Best Play:
Eclipsed-Danai Gurira
The Humans-Stephen Karam
King Charles III-Mike Bartlett
Best Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
Spring Awakening
Best Revival of a Play:
A View From the Bridge
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Alex Brightman-School of Rock: The Musical
Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Reed Birney-The Humans
Tim Pigott-Smith-King Charles III
Mark Strong-A View From the Bridge
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Annaleigh Ashford-Sylvia
Jayne Houdyshell-The Humans
Laurie Metcalf-Misery
Lupita Nyong’o-Eclipsed
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple
Lesli Margherita-Dames at Sea
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Richard Goulding-King Charles III
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Phoebe Fox-A View From the Bridge
Nicola Walker-A View From the Bridge
Lydia Wilson-King Charles III
Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
John Doyle-The Color Purple
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Direction of a Play:
Rupert Goold-King Charles III
Joe Mantello-The Humans
Liesl Tommy-Eclipsed
Ivo van Hove-A View From the Bridge
Best Original Score:
Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock: The Musical-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
Best Book of a Musical:
Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
On Your Feet!-Alexander Dinelaris
School of Rock: The Musical-Julian Fellowes
Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
JoAnn M. Hunter-School of Rock: The Musical
Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening
Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
Best Orchestrations:
Joseph Joubert-The Color Purple
Alex Lacamoire-Hamilton
Andrew Lloyd Webber-School of Rock: The Musical
Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Howell Binkley-Hamilton
Jane Cox-The Color Purple
Donald Holder-Fiddler on the Roof
Natasha Katz-School of Rock: The Musical
Kenneth Posner-On Your Feet!
Best Lighting Design of a Play:
Jon Clark-King Charles III
Jennifer Schriever-Eclipsed
Justin Townsend-The Humans
Jan Versweyveld-A View From the Bridge
Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
John Doyle-The Color Purple
David Korins-Hamilton
Michael Yeargan-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Scenic Design of a Play:
Beowulf Boritt-Therese Raquin
David Korins-Misery
Clint Ramos-Eclipsed
Tom Scutt-King Charles III
David Zinn-The Humans
Best Costume Design of a Musical:
ESosa-On Your Feet!
Ann Hould-Ward-The Color Purple
Paul Tazewell-Hamilton
Catherine Zuber-Fiddler on the Roof
Best Costume Design of a Play:
Jane Greenwood-Therese Raquin
Clint Ramos-Eclipsed
Leading Actor Joined: 9/16/15
I doubt Dames At Sea will be remembered come Tony time. same for S.A.
RE: Lead Actress in a Play
Laurie Metcalf was indeed excellent in Misery, but I can't help but feel like the whole production will be overlooked. I think Nina Arianda is in a similar situation. I think both actresses gave nomination-worthy performances, but might be overlooked. I also don't see Houdyshell getting nominated, personally. I think Lupita is a sure-thing. And though I hate to admit it, Annaleigh probably is too (as I've said before, I'm not a fan).
Of course, we have yet to see Jessica Lange and Sophie Okonedo. Jessica Lange in particular is in an incredibly nominate-able role. Unless she turns out to be really bad, I can't see them overlooking anyone in that mountain of a role.
Houdyshell is a favorite and is excellent in The Humans, so I'd expect a nomination. However, the whole show is an ensemble piece, so I imagine the cast will all be considered featured.
Featured Actor Joined: 5/6/13
I think Houdyshell has an excellent chance in Featured - the younger daughter seems more the lead of the show and Jayne's artful performance supports the others around her. Would love her nominated in either capacity.
Broadway Legend Joined: 2/10/11
aaaaaa15 said: "As much as I'd love to see Soo win a Tony for Eliza (personally I thought she was the best out of the entire cast), I don't think she would have won in Featured or Leading. Featured would have split the votes with her and Renee. It will be a shame for her if Hamilton wins Leading Actor, Featured Actor and Featured Actress and not Leading Actress as it may very well do. Of course, she will be able to console herself with the fact that she's in Hamilton.
I can't help thinking she should be thrilled to be nominated. Despite the decision to put her into the leading actress category, it IS a supporting role. And the competition is already looking to be very strong (Erivo, Mueller, Villafane, and not yet seen MacDonald and Benanti). She may not even get nominated.
"
My predictions:
BEST MUSICAL
Hamilton (WIN)
Waitress
On Your Feet!
School of Rock
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
The Colour Purple (WIN)
Fiddler on The Roof
Spring Awakening
BEST PLAY
Eclipsed (WIN)
The Humans
King Charles III
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
The Crucible (WIN)
Sylvia
A View From The Bridge
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Leslie Odom Jr. - Hamilton (WIN)
Lin Manuel-Miranda - Hamilton
Danny Bernstein - Fiddler on The Roof
Alex Brightman - School of Rock
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Cynthia Erivo - The Colour Purple (WIN)
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
Phillipa Soo - Hamilton
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along
Would like to see Lea Salonga get nominated for Allegiance though.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton (WIN)
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton
Billy Porter - Shuffle Along
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Jennifer Hudson - The Colour Purple (WIN)
Danielle Brooks - The Colour Purple
Renee Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton
Thats all for right now. Have to finish my predictions on another day when I am not working lol.
My Current Predictions:
Best Musical:
Hamilton
On Your Feet!
School of Rock
Waitress
Potential Spoiler: Tuck Everlasting
Best Revival of a Musical:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
Spring Awakening
Potential Spoiler: She Loves Me
Lead Actor in a Musical:
Alex Brightman-School of Rock
Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
Benjamin Walker-American Psycho
Potential Spoiler: Andrew Keenan-Bolger-Tuck Everlasting
Lead Actress in a Musical:
Laura Benanti-She Loves Me
Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
Audra McDonald-Shuffle Along, or, the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Jessie Mueller-Waitress
Ana Villafane-On Your Feet!
Potential Spoiler: Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Gavin Creel-She Loves Me
Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
Terrence Mann-Tuck Everlasting
Potential Spoiler: Paul Alexander Nolan-Bright Star
Featured Actress in a Musical:
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Carolee Carmello-Tuck Everlasting
Renee Elsie Goldsberry-Hamilton
Jennifer Hudson-The Color Purple
Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me
Potential Spoiler: Sierra Boggess-School of Rock
Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
John Doyle-The Color Purple
Thomas Kail-Hamilton
Diane Paulus-Waitress
Bartlett Sher-Fiddler on the Roof
Potential Spoiler: Casey Nicholaw-Tuck Everlasting
Best Book of a Musical:
Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
On Your Feet!-Alexander Dinelaris
School of Rock-Julian Fellowes
Waitress-Jessie Nelson
Potential Spoiler: Tuck Everlasting-Claudia Shear & Tim Federle
Best Original Score:
Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
Tuck Everlasting-Music By Chris Miller, Lyrics By Nathan Tysen
Waitress-Music & Lyrics By Sara Bareilles
Potential Spoiler: Bright Star-Music By Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Lyrics By Edie Brickell
Best Choreography:
Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
Savion Glover-Shuffle Along, or, the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Spencer Liff-Spring Awakening
Hofesh Shecter-Fiddler on the Roof
Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
Potential Spoiler: Casey Nicholaw-Tuck Everlasting
BEST MUSICAL
Hamilton
School of Rock
American Psycho
Shuffle Along
BEST PLAY
King Charles III
Eclipsed
The Humans
The Father
BEST REVIVAL MUSICAL
The Color Purple
Spring Awakening
Fiddler of the Roof
She Loves Me
BEST REVIVAL PLAY
A View from the Bridge
Long Days Journey into Night
The Crucible
Noises Off
BEST ACTOR MUSICAL
Leslie Odom - Hamilton
Lin Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Benjamin Walker - American Psycho
Alex Brightman - School of Rock
Danny Burstein - Fiddler on the Roof
BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL
Cynthia Erivo - The Color Purple
Audra McDonald - Shuffle Along
Philippa Soo - Hamilton
Laura Benanti - She Loves Me
Jessie Mueller - Waitress
BEST ACTOR - PLAY
Mark Strong - A View from the Bridge
Ben Winshaw - The Crucible
Frank Langella - The Father
Tim Pigeot-Smith - King Charles III
Jeff Daniels - Blackbird
BEST ACTRESS PLAY
Jessica Lange - Long Day's Journey
Saoirse Ronan - The Crucible
Michelle Phillips - Blackbird
Lupita Nyong-o - Eclipsed
Andrea Martin - Noises Off
Jeffrey, I think you make some very smart choices in your predictions (again, with the limited knowledge of it being only January!). Personally, I do think that Phillipa stands a much better chance of getting a leading actress nom than Villafañe. I also think there'll be four Revival noms this year instead of three like you predict, and that She Loves Me will snag one in addition to the three you expect will.
BroadwayConcierge said: "I also think there'll be four Revival noms this year instead of three like you predict""
Though that is a possibility, it's somewhat unlikely. Since there are only 5 eligible revivals, the default number of nominees will be 3. I might not have the details quite right here, but I believe that in order for there to be a 4th, the production with the 4th highest number of votes has to be only 3 or fewer votes behind the production in 3rd place.
Updated On: 1/30/16 at 03:43 PM
Totally true, JBroadway.
Also, shoot, I forgot to mention in my last post responding to Jeffrey's predictions—Shuffle Along isn't in either of your Best Musical or Revival categories. I think that'll be a lock, it just depends which one it goes into!
^If Shuffle Along ends up being eligible as a revival, then the nominators will be given four slots to fill as there would be six musical revivals eligible this season (The Color Purple, Dames at Sea, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, Shuffle Along..., and Spring Awakening).
Personally, I do think that Phillipa stands a much better chance of getting a leading actress nom than Villafañe.
If Phillipa ends up riding on the wave of support for Hamilton, then I could see it being possible. We'll just have to see how all the potential candidates stack up. Thank goodness the Administration Committee changed the rules last year where if there is a tie in the nominating process, the numbers shall be expanded.
Shuffle Along isn't in either of your Best Musical or Revival categories. I think that'll be a lock.
While it sounds like it could be on paper, we have yet to see if the show will even live up to its potential.
Featured Actor Joined: 9/14/15
BEST MUSICAL
HAMILTON (duh)
School of Rock (the biggest hit of the season thus far, will likely get a nod)
Waitress (got very good reviews out of town and I don't see any changes being made to mess it up)
Shuffle Along (Don't see anything going wrong with a creative team of this caliber)
American Psycho (big question mark: picked it over the other two because I think it has the biggest chance of being a hit)
spoiler: Disaster! (this could be the sleeper hit of the season), Tuck Everlasting (decent reviews out of town but I think could be seen as too kiddy)
BEST PLAY
KING CHARLES III (snob hit of the season)
The Humans (will likely get a nod but the family drama feels sort of worn out at this point)
Eclipsed (got great reviews downtown)
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
THE COLOR PURPLE (retooling of a work that was pretty "eh" in it's original broadway run into something marvelous)
Fiddler on the Roof (good reviews, doing well)
She Loves Me (the 54 below preview was great: I predict this show will get a lot of love)
spoiler: Spring Awakening (I just don't see it being remembered)
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
A VIEW FROM THE BRIDGE (great, acclaimed production)
Long Day's Journey Into Night
The Crucible
Noises Off
LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
DANNY BURSTEIN, FIDDLER ON THE ROOF (I smell a kelli o'hara year- giving a great acclaimed performance)
Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton (is fantastic has a great shot at winning)
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Benjamin Walker, American Psycho
Alex Brightman, School of Rock
spoiler: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
CYNTHIA ERIVO, THE COLOR PURPLE (star-making performance)
Audra McDonald, Shuffle Along
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Philippa Soo, Hamilton
spoiler: Ana Vilafane, On Your Feet!
FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
Joshua Henry, Shuffle Along
Brian Stokes Mitchell, Shuffle Along
Gavin Creel, She Loves Me
Jonathon Groff, Hamilton
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
Carolee Carmello, Tuck Everlasting
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jennifeer Hudson, The Color Purple
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
(spoilers: Alice Ripley/Jennifer Damiano, American Psycho)
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/9/15
My prediction is that Shuffle Along will be considered a Revival. The press release a few months ago said the full original show would be presented along with additional details about the making of it (downplaying the new elements much more than the original announcement did). My completely uneducated prediction is that they're going to downplay the new stuff and try to bill it as a revival, and they'll succeed.
I have absolutely no basis or knowledge to make any real prediction, so I didn't say I was predicting that Leslie Odom Jr. would be placed in lead, even though I thought it in my head. My uneducated guess ended up being right there, so I'm joining in the predictions just for fun. :)
Here are my non-predictions but rather a list of what/who I would nominate/vote for in my near-perfect world so far based only on what I've seen. I'm not including anything I haven't seen, which doesn't mean they're not deserving. Note that in my perfect world there is no limit on the number of nominations. Of course, it's not a perfect world because I haven't seen everything, and in a perfect world I would. Also in a perfect world I'd be able to listen to Leslie Odom Jr. sing any song live on demand, but I feel like that's asking too much.
Best Musical:
Hamilton (Win)
School of Rock
(I missed Amazing Grace and Allegiance. I expect several of the spring shows to be added to this list, but I doubt any of them will take away my vote for Hamilton.)
Best Revival of a Musical:
Spring Awakening
Dames at Sea
The Color Purple (win, but it's close between this and Spring Awakening)
Fiddler
(Yes, in my perfect world every musical revival so far gets nominated. I also expect to love She Loves Me, and Shuffle Along, so I guess in my perfect world 100% of the shows could be nominated.)
New Play;
King Charles III
I expect one of the spring shows like Blackbird or Eclipsed will take the top spot for me, but we'll see.
(I missed China Doll, and haven't yet seen Our Mother's Brief Affair--probably won't either.)
Revival of a Play:
Sylvia
Noises Off (win)
(I missed Old Times, Fool for Love, and Gin Game. The fact that View from the Bridge is missing from this list is exactly why these aren't predictions. I fully expect that to be nominated, and likely win. Good for it, but it just wasn't my cup of tea. And I don't expect Sylvia to actually be nominated, but I loved it.)
Best Actor in a Musical:
Leslie Odom Jr - Hamilton (win)
Danny Burstein - Fiddler
Alex Brightman - School of Rock
Austin P. McKenzie - Spring Awakening
(Lin-Manuel Miranda should ABSOLUTELY win the creative awards for Hamilton, but I think there are other actors more deserving from a performance standpoint.)
Best Actress in a Musical:
Cynthia Erivo - Color Purple (win)
Philippa Soo - Hamilton
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Daveed Diggs - Hamilton (tie for win)
Christopher Jackson - Hamilton (tie for win)
Jonathan Groff - Hamilton
Oak - Hamilton (Not going to try to actually spell his name...)
Kyle Scatliffe - Color Purple
Adam Kantor - Fiddler
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Renee Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton (win)
Andrea Burns - On Your Feet
Mara Davi - Dames at Sea
Lesli Margherita - Dames at Sea
Jennifer Hudson - Color Purple
Danielle Brooks - Color Purple
Samantha Massell - Fiddler
(My what a year for the ladies! And the spring shows to come are sure to bring some crazy competition to this and the leading category....)
Best Actor in a Play:
Tim Pigott-Smith - King Charles III
Mark Strong - View from the Bridge (win)
(Again I expect the spring will bring a lot more stellar performances.)
Best Actress in a Play:
Kiera Knightly - Therese Raquin
Laurie Metcalfe - Misery
Annaleigh Ashford - Sylvia (win)
Andrea Martin - Noises Off
(I'm so excited for some of the spring performances)
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Robert Sella - Sylvia
David Furr - Noises Off
Richard Goulding - King Charles III
(Can't really pick a winner from these --they were all good but I'm still waiting for a wow performance...)
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Megan Hilty - Noises Off (win)
(Note that Lydia Wilson, but she was out of King Charles III when I saw it.)
Can't wait for my next trip to see the upcoming shows!!!!
Videos