Perhaps I will be eating my words. Perhaps. But right now I think you're all just way too anxious and excited for it because it's "our" movie - a Broadway musical that's now in the mainstream - and a GOOD one at that, a GOOD movie musical in a mix of recent flops (RENT, PRODUCERS, PHANTOM).
Yes, it was a good film. Yes, it's the best reviewed film of the year so far. But in the grand scheme of things, it's just not an "Oscar film." Of course there are always exceptions and the Oscars can be very unpredictable (remember when their slogan was "Anything Can Happen"?). But mostly when the buzz narrows in on just a few selective films, they are very predictable.
I'd love for HAIRSPRAY to be recognized, but it for the major awards I just don't see it happening. Sure, the DVD will bring it back into the spotlight - but will that spotlight be overshadowed by OTHER films? Can you imagine if the HARRY POTTER movie, the final HARRY POTTER book, and the HAIRSPRAY DVD all came out on the same day this winter? In the mixup of awards season and Potter-mania, HAIRSPRAY would be in the background.
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle