I definitely think there is a nomination in his future since he is doing magnificent work, but also partially because he's never gotten any love from the Tonys before and I feel like this is a moment where if he can't please the nominating committee with a matured star turn in a much-lauded Sondheim revival, then there is no pleasing them. Granted, they better petition him as a featured and not a lead (in spite of his billing).
However, there is a MASSIVE glut of musicals opening and there are going to be a lot of worthy performances on the cutting room floor unless the categories end up expanded by tied nomination voting.
Off the top of my head (and recognizing many parts don't have a clearly defined placement yet), in leading, he theoretically faces competition from Groff, d'Arcy James, Iglehart & Killam (based on precedent), Llana, Redmayne, Likes, Rannells, Gad, Gustin and Zien.
In featured, he's up against Slater, Fitzgerald, Walker, Urie, Ricamora, Coles, Bart, the Comedian Harmonists (if they do a collective nod), Guarini, Blankson-Wood, Skybell, Freeman, and anyone from "Dance In Ohio"
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