Will The Prom flop? — Page 2

I'm looking forward to the show and I hope it's a success. The cast and creative team are all very talented and I think a fun new musical comedy is just what Broadway needs.

Predicting the success/failure of shows like this is difficult.

It could be Getting the Band Back Together which most people suspected would be bad, and was, and didn't find an audience. Or it could be Come From Away which had a lot of naysayers and which I find totally mediocre but has been wildly successful. Or it could be A Bronx Tale which went on to have an inexplicably long run.

Taste is subjective, marketing is important, and you need to attract all kinds of audience members for a long run.

There’s some things about the show that should make it a solid runner—maybe not a hit, but something that would run until awards season, at least. It has a good cast and some of the most talented comedic actors Broadway has to offer. The problem I heard time and time again was that coming out of Atlanta, parts of the plot were just silly or even dumb. If they can correct those, get good word of mouth, they might be okay.

It’s hard to say. I wish it the best because we need original musicals that tell diverse stories, but it’s hard to say

I think the two biggest questions -



Is it a good show? Genuinely, a good show? People show up for quality, more than anything else. More than stars (think of the number of star vehicles that have flopped, and the number of no-name shows that have been a smash hit) and more than plot (Hamilton sounds awful when you try to describe it. So does CFA. So does DEH.)

Not always, but generally - if it is good*, people will come.

* sidenote for shows that are great but do not appeal to the general sensibilities of the average broadway-goer, either by being too strange or too boundary pushing, it does make it harder. Does not apply to The Prom, which seems to hit a successful niche of being vaguely liberal (Queer girls who want to go to prom but the bigots won't let them!) while not being particularly in your face about it or making people uncomfortable.



The second part of that - does the economics make sense? Comet had high grosses every single week, but they have such ridiculously high running costs it did them in. Compare to PTGW, who has low grosses but even lower costs. At 60% of gross potential, PTGW is profitable. OOTI is in the red.

If they don't spend 15m to mount the thing and keep their costs low, and the show doesn't outright suck, The Prom should do alright. If costs are low and it's a good show and they know how to market it, I could see it being a steady staple for a few years and recoup.



The formula for success isn't hard. Money in (how many people see it) minus money out (how expensive it is to run) = whether or not they can keep paying everyone and keep it open.



I think the subject matter's in their favour, it's got a broad appeal and it's easy to explain. It doesn't seem like it should be expensive - no stars, no special effects that I know of, it's modern day and not fantastical or period. But then again, I am always surprised and how much some shows manage to spend. As for how good the show is, we'll have to see.

Robbie2 said: "uncageg said: "Woke people?"

Yea,woke people? I see that term used on BWW...why?"

For the same reason there are man-buns.

One problem I see for The Prom is that I regularly read theatre news, get all sorts of advertisement in the mail and following me around online, and I'm a fan of some of the people involved.

But I couldn't tell you what it's about. From anywhere. Not in the slightest.

That's a problem.

I'm hoping to see this in November at a Sunday performance but I won't book I'll just try TKTS or Today Tix

Oh man. I really hope not. Social media response has shown me people are really excited for this show. I’d hate for it to not be successful.