Way too early 2017 Tony predictions- Page 14

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 2/14/17 at 2:35pm

I always get confused by this rule but yeah it looks like only three slots.

[Valentina3]

Posted: 2/16/17 at 8:15pm

So... who do we think will host? Corden was amazing, but I want to see new people too. 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/16/17 at 10:48pm

icecreambenjamin said: "Even though it hasn't opened yet, Hello Dolly has some ridiculous buzz surrounding it.  Only time will tell, but Dolly looks to be the frontrunner."

I don't think it's fair to call something a frontrunner when no one has even seen it yet. Sure, there's lots of anticipation for Hello, Dolly!, but that doesn't automatically mean it will live up to it. As I keep saying, Jerry Zaks' track record on Broadway has been pretty inconsistent as of late.

"Although, I saw the London production of Miss Saigon a couple of years ago and it's absolutely gorgeous, but the Tonys will probably want to award an American production of an American musical."

Should it really matter where the production/original material came from? I don't think so.

[BroadwayNYC2]

Posted: 2/16/17 at 11:02pm

Should it really matter where the production/original material came from? I don't think so.

It shouldn't, but there's no denying it does. 

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 2/16/17 at 11:04pm

Bumping this just so it's on the latest page.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
The Present
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

TBD Ruling
Jitney (highly likely Play Revival)

Withdrawn Eligibility
Sunday in the Park with George

[Wilmingtom]

Posted: 2/16/17 at 11:23pm

Will Lapine be eligible, having been nominated for the original?  I don't believe so.  I could (almost) imagine Price taking that slot for Sunset.  As for Close and Gyllenhaal being out of the race, I'd be perfectly happy with Platt and either Midler or Noblezada (the latter two, addmitedly, sight unseen).  But there are always some surprises, aren't there?

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/16/17 at 11:41pm

James Lapine is eligible for Best Direction of a Musical this year...
http://www.tonyawards.com/en_US/news/articles/2017-01-26/201701261485456775201.html

Plus, directors have been Tony nominated for the same show multiple times before such as...

Scott Ellis-She Loves Me
James Lapine-Into the Woods
Arthur Laurents-Gypsy

[Wilmingtom]

Posted: 2/16/17 at 11:59pm

Thanks, Jeffrey, I stand corrected.  But it makes me wonder why Close isn't eligible for a job she's done previously.  

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 2/17/17 at 1:14am

Wilmingtom said: "Thanks, Jeffrey, I stand corrected.  But it makes me wonder why Close isn't eligible for a job she's done previously.  

 

"

Lapine didn't win for directing Falsettos, Close did. If he had won, I'm not sure if he'd still be eligible. It definitely was a different direction of the piece, but couldn't the same argument be made for actors who return to roles, but play it a different way.

[broadwaygirl10]

Posted: 2/21/17 at 12:18pm

Here are my predictions, winners in in italics. 
Best Musical 
Anastasia
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
SWITCHERS: War Paint, Charlie, Amelie, Bronx Tale?. **If anything beats DEH it'll be Come From away/Natasha
Best Play 
Indecent
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
Significant Other
Sweat
**Indecent and Oslo have a chance of sneaking in for the win. 
Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard
**This will a super competitive category though. 
Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
Jitney

The Glass Menagerie
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
 

[BroadwayRox3588]

Posted: 2/27/17 at 1:21am

Here are some of my early predictions (these are subject to change, and more categories will be added as I see shows. This is basically a rough draft):

Best Play
Indecent
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
Sweat

Best Musical
Anastasia
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812
(with either War Paint or Groundhog Day added, if there is a fifth)

Best Revival of a Play
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney (though I don't believe this has officially been categorized; but it should be in this category)
Present Laughter
Six Degrees of Separation

Best Revival of a Musical
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
(would love to see Sunset land a nomination though)

Leading Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Josh Groban, Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812
Andy Karl, Groundhog Day
Derek Klena, Anastasia
Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen

Leading Actress in a Musical
Christy Altomare, Anastasia
Christine Ebersole, War Paint
Patti LuPone, War Paint
Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!
Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon

Updated On: 2/27/17 at 01:21 AM

[supersam1026]

Posted: 2/27/17 at 1:43am

After the insanity of tonight's Oscars, I'm ruling absolutely nothing out. Hell, In Transit could win for all I know!

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 2/27/17 at 10:01am

As wonderful as Jitney is, it won't win.

[Valentina3]

Posted: 2/27/17 at 10:04am

August Wilson has a lot of love being thrown his way lately. That momentum could take Jitney to the win. The buzz around this production has been fairly good too. But I guess we'll find out.

 

Who's gonna host?!

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 2/27/17 at 10:10am

BroadwayRox3588 said: "Here are some of my early predictions (these are subject to change, and more categories will be added as I see shows. This is basically a rough draft):

Best Play
Indecent
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
Sweat

Best Musical
Anastasia
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812
(with either War Paint or Groundhog Day added, if there is a fifth)

Best Revival of a Play
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney (though I don't believe this has officially been categorized; but it should be in this category)
Present Laughter
Six Degrees of Separation

Best Revival of a Musical
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
(would love to see Sunset land a nomination though)

Leading Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Josh Groban, Natasha, Pierre & the Great Comet of 1812
Andy Karl, Groundhog Day
Derek Klena, Anastasia
Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen

Leading Actress in a Musical
Christy Altomare, Anastasia
Christine Ebersole, War Paint
Patti LuPone, War Paint
Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!
Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon"

Here's my rough draft...

Best Musical
Anastasia
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
If There's a Fifth Slot: Groundhog Day

Best Play
Indecent
Oslo
Significant Other
Sweat
If There's a Fifth Slot: Heisenberg

Best Revival of a Musical
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon

Best Revival of a Play
Jitney
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
Six Degrees of Separation

Best Lead Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle-Charlie & the Chocolate Factory
Jon Jon Briones-Miss Saigon
Josh Groban-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Andy Karl-Groundhog Day
Ben Platt-Dear Evan Hansen

Best Lead Actress in a Musical
Christy Altomare-Anastasia
Denee Benton-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Christine Ebersole-War Paint
Bette Midler-Hello, Dolly!
Eva Noblezada-Miss Saigon

Best Lead Actor in a Play
Denis Arndt-Heisenberg
Gideon Glick-Significant Other
John Benjamin Hickey-Six Degrees of Separation
Kevin Kline-Present Laughter
Jefferson Mays-Oslo

Best Lead Actress in a Play
Cate Blanchett-The Present
Jennifer Ehle-Oslo
Laura Linney-The Little Foxes
Cynthia Nixon-The Little Foxes
Mary-Louise Parker-Heisenberg

[thebookofwhizzer]

Posted: 2/27/17 at 8:03pm

anyone have thoughts on In Transit? It's gotten fairly good reviews and my family members who saw it loved it. wondering if it has a shot of a non for anything?

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 2/27/17 at 8:39pm

In Transit won't be nominated for anything. 

[thebookofwhizzer]

Posted: 2/28/17 at 11:01am

I think that Stephanie J block will definitely get a nom for falsettos, I saw the show in December and I was blown away by her performance. 

Updated On: 2/28/17 at 11:01 AM

[MadonnaMusical]

Posted: 2/28/17 at 11:28am

I wouldn't underestimate A BRONX TALE. It is doing well at the box office, got a rave from the Times, has a veteran team, and will tour well. 

I could see the Best Musical category looking like this:

NATASHA, PIERRE, & THE GREAT COMET OF 1812
DEAR EVAN HANSEN
COME FROM AWAY
A BRONX TALE
(Plus one more.... more than likely a fifth slot this year)

Critics and audiences have both embraced the above musicals (assuming the Times will give come from away a rave) and it is starting to feel like the next set of musicals will all be competing for that final possible fifth slot. Amelie, Anastasia, Ground Hog Day, Charlie, or War Paint??? 

Charlie & The Chocolate Factory doesn't need Tony love to have a run, and if any of the other four have disappointing box office sales they are less and less likely to get the nomination. 

There are so many new musicals opening in the next two months it feels like we could have a Tony ceremony for the first half of the season, and a whole new one in June. 

[thebookofwhizzer]

Posted: 2/28/17 at 2:24pm

Also, I was wondering if Gideon Glick will get a nom for Significant Other? Reviews are pretty good and my aunt said he was stunning.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 2/28/17 at 2:58pm

Very likely!

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/1/17 at 9:03am

MadonnaMusical said: "I wouldn't underestimate A BRONX TALE. It is doing well at the box office, got a rave from the Times, has a veteran team, and will tour well."

There's no way A Bronx Tale is getting in for Best Musical. The overall critical response to it has been mixed, with some nice reviews thrown in. White Charles Isherwood did give it a NYT Critic's Pick, he still felt the show was flawed.

"I could see the Best Musical category looking like this:

NATASHA, PIERRE, & THE GREAT COMET OF 1812
DEAR EVAN HANSEN
COME FROM AWAY
A BRONX TALE
(Plus one more....more than likely a fifth slot this year)

Critics and audiences have both embraced the above musicals (assuming the Times will give come from away a rave) and it is starting to feel like the next set of musicals will all be competing for that final possible fifth slot. Amelie, Anastasia, Ground Hog Day, Charlie, or War Paint??? 

Charlie & The Chocolate Factory doesn't need Tony love to have a run, and if any of the other four have disappointing box office sales they are less and less likely to get the nomination."

Tony nominators only judge the shows on their artistic merits, not box office success.

Updated On: 3/1/17 at 09:03 AM

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 3/1/17 at 9:04am

"There's no way A Bronx Tale is getting in for Best Musical. "

Anything is possible.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 3/1/17 at 9:26am

My current, totally meaningless predictions (just because it's that kind of a dreary Wednesday morning...):

Best Musical
Anastasia
Come from Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812
Fifth slot: either Groundhog Day or War Paint

Best Revival of a Musical
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

Best Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory)
Jon Jon Briones (Miss Saigon)
Josh Groban (The Great Comet)
Andy Karl (Groundhog Day)
Ben Platt (Dear Evan Hansen)

Best Actress in a Musical
Christy Altomare (Anastasia)
Christine Ebersole (War Paint)
Patti LuPone (War Paint)
Bette Midler (Hello, Dolly!)
Eva Noblezada (Miss Saigon)
Phillipa Soo (Amélie)

^^there are six leading ladies in there, but I'm having a damn hard time figuring out who could get nixed...

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Gavin Creel (Hello, Dolly!)
Lucas Steele (The Great Comet)

^^still struggling to think of potential nominees. Probably somebody from Falsettos? Chocolate Factory?

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Stephanie J. Block (Falsettos)
Jenn Colella (Come from Away)
Amber Grey (The Great Comet)
Rachel Bay Jones (Dear Evan Hansen)
Fifth slot: either Caroline O'Connor or Mary Beth Peil (Anastasia); maybe Brittain Ashford (The Great Comet)

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/1/17 at 9:49am

BroadwayConcierge said: "My current, totally meaningless predictions (just because it's that kind of a dreary Wednesday morning...):

Best Revival of a Musical
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard"

Unless there ends up being a close race between two shows in the nominating process within 3 votes or less, there will only be three nominees.

"Best Actress in a Musical
Christy Altomare (Anastasia)
Christine Ebersole (War Paint)
Patti LuPone (War Paint)
Bette Midler (Hello, Dolly!)
Eva Noblezada (Miss Saigon)
Phillipa Soo (Amélie)

^^there are six leading ladies in there, but I'm having a damn hard time figuring out who could get nixed..."

Hopefully, there will be a tie in the nominating process, so that they could expand the numbers. But why don't you have Denee Benton getting in?

"Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Gavin Creel (Hello, Dolly!)
Lucas Steele (The Great Comet)

^^still struggling to think of potential nominees. Probably somebody from Falsettos? Chocolate Factory?"

Corbin Bleu? Andrew Rannells?