Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 8/14/16- Page 2

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 8/17/16 at 11:13am

I don't think he will be.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 8/17/16 at 11:19am

Liza's Headband said: "Making a new casting announcement means nothing. If he doesn't bring in new patrons within the first couple months, I predict they announce by January. This Todrick Hall addition is more an act of final desperation than anything else."

True but bear in mind that the operative quote raising this subject claimed KB would not last until September LOL

[Skimbleshanks2]

Posted: 8/17/16 at 11:43am

TODRICK's casting means nothing... Remember when TAYE DIGGS forced HEDWIG to close early??

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/17/16 at 11:50am

HogansHero said: "Liza's Headband said: "Making a new casting announcement means nothing. If he doesn't bring in new patrons within the first couple months, I predict they announce by January. This Todrick Hall addition is more an act of final desperation than anything else."

True but bear in mind that the operative quote raising this subject claimed KB would not last until September LOL

 

"

Right, but I was responding to ACL's claim that Kinky Boots wasn't "going anywhere." That other prediction about closing in September was beyond preposterous I just decided to ignore it and pretend it never even happened. 

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/17/16 at 12:20pm

PThespian said: "I'm LOVING this. Liza and Hogan putting their great minds together to analyze a situation. 

Has this ever happened before?

 

"

 

Yes, countless times before while attempting to combat your stupidity and lack of analytical finesse (and vice versa when you were attempting the same against HOgan) -- I'm an equal opportunity type of guy who enjoys playing the field. 

[VintageSnarker]

Posted: 8/17/16 at 8:30pm

Kad said: "Is Hall really going to be much of a draw? He's known for his viral music and videos, which doesn't necessarily translate into Broadway ticket sales or even audience overlap since they largely appeal to teenagers. He's in no way a prominent cultural "name" yet. I'd say his draw level is akin to a second-tier Broadway name."

It feels at about the same level as Chester See and Frankie Grande going into Rock of Ages. It's difficult to predict how much of a draw he'll be. Would Colleen Ballinger be a draw? Ex-Disney channel stars and music stars from different genres have tried their luck on Broadway. True, it's usually in something like Chicago or a Disney show but Kinky Boots isn't the most challenging material.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 1:13am

Todrick Hall is definitely stunt casting. Whether or not he's talented and can pull it off will be seen. But, that said, Wayne Brady was stunt casting and was incredible. Stunt casting isn't a negative term.'

[RockyRoad]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 1:44am

How the hell is Wayne Brady "stunt casting"?

You do know he has several theatrical roles on his resume?

I guess he is not as accomplished as Wendy Williams.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 2:14am

Well, he's a celebrity being used to help ticket sales....so he's stunt casting. Again, it's not a negative. Todrick Hall technically has more Broadway credits than Brady... 

[bfreak]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 9:12am

While I understand what you mean RippedMan, and I DO believe that Todrick Hall IS stunt casting in this instance, but I also don't think that every time a celebrity is casted in a show that it is stunt casting. Stunt casting is moreso when you put a celebrity in a show that may not seem like a perfect fit, hoping to boost ticket sales out of curiosity and people who will see their favorite star in anything. But there are many, many times that celebrities are casted in shows because of the fact they can both be the best choice for a part and also give the show a chance to boost ticket sales. 

 

Here's a difference:

 

Celebrity Casting: Bradley Cooper (Elephant Man), Emma Stone (Cabaret), Jeff Daniels/Michelle Williams (Blackbird), Jennifer Hudson (Color Purple), Jake Gyllenhaal (pretty much everything he's done).

 

Stunt casting: NeNe Leakes (Cinderella AND Chicago), Bruce Willis (Misery), The previously mentioned Rock of Ages people, Carly Rae Jepsen (Cinderella, again), Rosie O'Donnell (2004 Fiddler on the Roof)

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 9:50am

Isn't the difference between "stunt casting" and "celebrity casting" completely subjective, though? Your definition and standard might differ from someone else's; case in point being Wayne Brady vs. Todrick Hall.... 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 9:54am

VintageSnarker said: "Kad said: "Is Hall really going to be much of a draw? He's known for his viral music and videos, which doesn't necessarily translate into Broadway ticket sales or even audience overlap since they largely appeal to teenagers. He's in no way a prominent cultural "name" yet. I'd say his draw level is akin to a second-tier Broadway name."

It feels at about the same level as Chester See and Frankie Grande going into Rock of Ages. It's difficult to predict how much of a draw he'll be. Would Colleen Ballinger be a draw? Ex-Disney channel stars and music stars from different genres have tried their luck on Broadway. True, it's usually in something like Chicago or a Disney show but Kinky Boots isn't the most challenging material.

 

"

I don't think colleen would be a draw, but miranda would.

[BroadwayMan5]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 10:44am

I think Kinky Boots has reached the point where it's not going to announce a sudden closing. If you take away the mainstays (Phantom, Lion King, Chicago, Wicked, Jersey Boys, Book of Mormon), it's the longest running show. I think we'll get an announcement of closing several weeks if not months before the actual closing date.

[GreenGables]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 11:10am

Honestly if PThespian, Liza, and Hogan are all getting drinks and I'm wasn't invited, I'd be so sad

[RippedMan]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 12:57pm

Bfreak: the difference is some of those are just productions with celebrities. They were announced like 3 Days of Rain with Julia Roberts. Wayne Brady going into a long running musical and then them positing "now starring Wayne Brady" ads and posters is indeed stunt casting. He was cast to draw attention to the show and boost ticket sales. 

[OrchardAndRivington]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 1:59pm

Markie27- In 2014 the LA Times ran an article about Jersey Boys success and stated that their running costs are between $400,000-$500,000, which they reported to be on the low end for a musical. (If the below link doesn't work, just type "What is the weekly nut for Jersey Boys on Broadway?" Into Google and it is the first article that pops up, called "Musicals are Expensive to Run)

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/arts/la-et-cm-ca-jersey-boys-musical-20140622-story.html

So while Jersey Boys IS currently making its weekly nut at the August Wilson, will it still be making it come the slow months of September/October? I personally don't know how much longer the producers will want to keep scraping by and not actually MAKING any money on the production. Just because the show is paying its bills, doesn't mean it is turning a profit.

The August Wilson is one of 5 Jujamcyn Broadway Houses and is a great sizes theatre for a large play or moderate sized musical. If the grosses fall into the $400,000-$450,000 range I could see them posting a closing notice for January. And if they fall into the $300,000 range for consecutive weeks during the fall, and if the Jujamcyns have a stop clause if it does fall under its nut, I'd almost guarantee a closing in/by January to free up the August Wilson for a spring booking.

10 Years is an incredible run for ANY show. I am not a fan of Jersey Boys, but the house staff will only be out of work for a few moths before a new booking begins and the talented actors and musicians, many of whom have been with the production for YEARS (between Broadway, Tour and Vegas), have hopefully saved some of that $$, will be fine. Another show will open and all of those people will be contently employed until that show closes. It's the Circle of Show Business. Shows we love close, shows we hate stay open

Updated On: 8/18/16 at 01:59 PM

Posted: 8/18/16 at 2:39pm

bfreak said: "While I understand what you mean RippedMan, and I DO believe that Todrick Hall IS stunt casting in this instance...

 Stunt casting is moreso when you put a celebrity in a show that may not seem like a perfect fit

"

What a contradiction. If stunt casting is putting a celebrity in a show that doesn't seem like a perfect fit, then how is Todrick Hall as Lola stunt casting? Regardless of how much of a celebrity he may be, it would be hard to argue that he isn't a perfect choice for Lola. That should be evident to anyone knows his work.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 2:42pm

RoadGypsy2010 said: "I personally don't know how much longer the producers will want to keep scraping by and not actually MAKING any money on the production. Just because the show is paying its bills, doesn't mean it is turning a profit." 

If a show is breaking even, many people are still making money including, most pointedly, the producer.

"If the grosses fall into the $400,000-$450,000 range I could see them posting a closing notice for January. And if they fall into the $300,000 range for consecutive weeks during the fall, and if the Jujamcyns have a stop clause if it does fall under its nut, I'd almost guarantee a closing in/by January to free up the August Wilson for a spring booking."

I agree that sustained weeks at those levels could precipitate closing but regarding the stop clause (something that is virtually never invoked in deference to friendly persuasion with an established producer) it is not tied to the weekly nut but is a number and bear in mind also that at the time the agreement was negotiated not only was the nut lower but the ticket prices (and thus the sense of what constitutes an acceptable gross) were lower.

 

[OrchardAndRivington]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 4:06pm

The show may be breaking even and making some money for those involved, true, but not the money a new hit production could make for all involved. If a Book of Mormon or Hamilton wanted the August Wilson, the Jujamcyns (or any theatre owners) would be salivating at the opportunity to drop dead weight (like a certain 10 year old production, which has had a fantastic run, but is no longer capable of filling a 1200 seat house 8x/week) for the next long running $1.5M/week guaranteed hit. (Yes, I know they can't just drop the dead weight, as there are contracts, legalities, etc..)

There doesn't seem to be a show that the Jujamcyn's have in mind to bring in, and as they may also see the Al Hircshfeld Theatre opening up in the next 6-12 months, they may not be in a rush to fill 2 similar sized houses becoming available at the same time.

That doesn't negate the fact that if JB (and KB, really) are having trouble filling the house in the profitable summer months the Sept/Oct, Jan/Feb/March slowdowns don't look likely to be major money earners for either production. We will see how T. Hall boosts Kinky Boots.. don't know if any star/stunt casting - outside Frankie and the 4 Seasons themselves...(and wouldn't THAT be a hoot!) that would propel JB back into the $750,000+ weekly gross range.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the JB producers trying to move to a smaller theatre at some point. It would probably mean breaking from the Jujamcyns, but the Dodgers have relationships with the Shuberts (Matilda and Bronx Tale currently), so JB could end up at a 1000-ish seat venue, a la Mamma Mia's move from the Winter Garden to the Broadhurst. It would probably help them get a few more years out of the Broadway run, while giving the Jujamcyn's the opportunity to try and bring in the next Big Hit.

Not a probability, mainly due to the fact that it isn't a smart business decision on behalf of the Shuberts, who could bring in a 16 week run of a mediocre play with a bankable celebrity to fill the theatres for $1M/week.. but anything is possible in this business of show.
 

Updated On: 8/18/16 at 04:06 PM

[HogansHero]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 5:54pm

RoadGypsy2010 said: "The show may be breaking even and making some money for those involved, true, but not the money a new hit production could make for all involved. "

you seem reluctant to wrap your head around the fact that the Dodgers have no opportunity cost in relation to a better use for the theatre. Unless and until the production is chronically losing significant money every week, they have positive cash flow. No one is moving this show to another theatre and no one is closing it until your guess about future revenue becomes a reality. There is no reason to even think about closing the show until the Monday after a serious loss that there is no path back from. 

[OrchardAndRivington]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 12:51am

I am very aware that the Dodgers will not necessarily have any financial stake in whatever succeeds Jersey Boys at the August Wilson, nor do they bear any responsibility to close the show until it is no longer actually reaching its nut and making money. I was not saying they ARE moving the show, or that they ARE closing it, I thought I made that clear when I said "(Yes, I know they can't just drop the dead weight, as there are contracts, legalities, etc..)" Since the theatre owners can't drop the dead weight of a minimally profitable production because the producers have the protection in place with contracts etc to prevent that from happening.

If this were the late 90's early 2000's and the Dodgers (With Joop van den Ende/Stage Entertainment) were pumping out revivals and new musicals every year and had a production ready to move into the August Wilson (Good Vibrations!, Fame!, Dracula..ahh the good old days), thats one thing, but with Matilda closing and A Bronx Tale not a guaranteed hit, it makes sense for them to hold on to the small profits they are making on Jersey Boys while they can. It also wouldn't surprise me if the National Tour is more profitable than the Broadway Production, with a higher inventory available in most markets than they play to in NYC, so that money can soften the blow of some light weeks in NYC.

It doesn't change my opinion that based on the trends of the grosses over the last few months/years, the end is in sight.

It could be 4 months (January 2017), 6 months (March for a new Pre-Tony opening), 12 months (Labor Day 2017) or 16 months (Jan 201, or hell, I could be totally wrong and we will revive this thread 2 years from now, in the Summer of 2018, and wonder how much time the then 12 year old production has left in it then. I will happily offer my mea culpa if that ends up being the case.

I'd like to see a legacy production like this go out with a bang, a nice Marketing push to a big closing. Despite my feelings about the show itself (I was a major Drowsy fan and never warmed to JB), it HAS been a Broadway staple for a decade and proved that with the correct concept a Jukebox/Catalogue Musical can be artistically, critically and economically successful. It would be a shame for it to limp out amidst dwindling grosses and interest.

Updated On: 8/19/16 at 12:51 AM