What Tony Upset Are You Hoping For? - Page 3

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 12:47pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "My money’s on 6 out of 7 for teamMerrilythis weekend."

What's your predicted loss? Sound?"

Yep, I think sound is going to Hell’s Kitchen, but I wouldn’t mind a clean sweep either!

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 12:54pm

(double post)

[SFFrontRow]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 2:39pm

Kecia Lewis for Hell's Kitchen

Stereophonic for score even if you dont hear the full score during the performance... although I did not see Here Lies Love and have not heard the score but the songs on the Stereophonic cast recording really does give you a feel for what the show was about

[Sauja]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 3:26pm

I feel like the categories where I’m rooting hard for particular winners are one where everything is totally up in the air. Does ANYone know who will win Featured Actress in a Musical? It feels like a dead even race between Mendez-Lewis-Neuwirth to me. I think I’m rooting for Lewis, the one who doesn’t have a Tony yet. But would that be an upset?

It’s Musical/Book/Score where I expect to be most disappointed. I’ll be rooting hard for The Outsiders and Water for Elephants, both of which I really, really loved. But I’m guessing Hell’s Kitchen will get the first and Suffs will take the next two. Still, there are no DEFINITE winners in these categories. I think the only ones locked up are for people I want to win like Groff and Radcliffe.

 

it’s going to be an exciting night with a lot of close races!

 

 

[starlightlocamotion]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 4:12pm

IMO … Water for Elephants deserves best musical of the five that are nominated. I also firmly believe there is a path forward for it (especially if the HK/SUFFS splits the vote.)

[blaxx]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 5:10pm

The most likely upset would be Neuwirth, if it happens.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 7:14pm

Rules are meant to be broken but I wanted to highlight a couple of interesting Tony stats I just discovered.

 

every Best Musical winner since 1980 has had all of the following:

• a Best Director nomination, except TITANIC
• one or more Acting nominations, except TITANIC
• a Best Book nomination, except FOSSE
• a Best Score nomination IF ITS SCORE WAS NEW & ELIGIBLE

So, for this year's shows:

• ILLINOISE has no Directing, Book, or Acting noms
• WATER has no Score or Acting noms
• HELL'S KITCHEN, OUTSIDERS, and SUFFS check all the above boxes.

 

Additionally, some Score & Orchestration stats:

• every Best Score winner has had a Best Orchestrations nomination except for AVENUE Q, AIDA, and the pandemic year.
• The only time a NEW score has won Best Orchestrations that didn't also win Best Score was last year for SOME LIKE IT HOT.
• BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY was unique in that it won Score but wasn't nominated for Best Musical.

This year, OUTSIDERS and STEREOPHONIC are the only two shows nominated for both Score and Orchestrations.

 

From purely a stats perspective, if you're trying to win a pool, I'd put OUTSIDERS down in a lot of categories. But again, rules are meant to be broken. And I might have missed something in my Googling!

Updated On: 6/13/24 at 07:14 PM

[Shubert Alley Cat]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 7:37pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Rules are meant to be broken but I wanted to highlight a couple of interesting Tony stats I just discovered.



every Best Musical winner since 1980 has had all of the following:

• a Best Director nomination, except TITANIC
• one or more Acting nominations, except TITANIC
• a Best Book nomination, except FOSSE
• a Best Score nomination IF ITS SCORE WAS NEW & ELIGIBLE

So, for this year's shows:

• ILLINOISE has no Directing, Book, orActing noms
• WATER has no Score or Acting noms
• SUFFS has no Directing nom
• HELL'S KITCHEN and OUTSIDERS check all the above boxes.

 


Additionally, some Score & Orchestration stats:

 

• every Best Score winner has had a Best Orchestrations nomination except for AVENUE Q, AIDA, and the pandemic year.
• The only time a NEW score has won Best Orchestrations that didn'talso win Best Score was last year for SOME LIKE IT HOT.
• BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY was unique in that it won Score but wasn't nominated for Best Musical.

This year, OUTSIDERS and STEREOPHONIC are the only two shows nominated for both Score and Orchestrations.



From purely a stats perspective, if you're trying to win a pool, I'd put OUTSIDERS down in a lot of categories. But again, rules are meant to be broken. AndI might have missed something in my Googling!"

 

I believe Leigh Silverman is nominated for her direction of SUFFS.  So this show cannot be counted out for Best Musical!

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/13/24 at 7:40pm

Oops! updated, thx.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/16/24 at 10:28am

I would lose my gay mind over a Kara Young and Sarah Pidgeon tie. 

Updated On: 6/16/24 at 10:28 AM

[persephone88]

Posted: 6/16/24 at 12:51pm

I know Paulsen is a front runner for best actress, but she was so over the top, I did not enjoy her performance anywhere near Corey Stoll's, for example, which was much more authentic.

Jonathan Groff did a fine job giving some sympathetic shades to Frank in Merrily, and he was very good, but I loved Eddie Redmayne's MC in Cabaret and would be delighted with a upset there. 

I really enjoyed Eli Gelb in Stereophonic but fear their multiple nods will cancel each other out. Sarah Pigeon also very deserving.

[Robbie2]

Posted: 6/16/24 at 12:59pm

WINS for:

• Keli O'hara - Actress
• Outsiders  - Choreography , Lighting , Sound
• Eli Gelb - Feautured
• Sarah Pidgeon - Featured
• Suffs - Musical
• Illinoise -  Orchestrations

[singer234]

Posted: 6/16/24 at 1:20pm

For my own selfish reasons as a fan, it would be nice to see "Tony Award Winner Shoshana Bean". But I can wait for her to originate a leading role and win for that, too!

[PipingHotPiccolo]

Posted: 6/16/24 at 1:36pm

persephone88 said: "I know Paulsen is a front runner for best actress, but she was so over the top, I did not enjoy her performance anywhere near Corey Stoll's, for example, which was much more authentic.

Jonathan Groff did a fine job giving some sympathetic shades to Frank in Merrily, and he was very good, but I loved Eddie Redmayne's MC in Cabaret and would be delighted with a upset there.

I really enjoyed Eli Gelb in Stereophonic but fear their multiple nods will cancel each other out. Sarah Pigeon also very deserving."

I, too, was underwhelmed by Paulson's performance but mostly because she was so hoarse it made her sound hysterical from the jump. Cant fault her, and still think she deserves the win tonight. I actually thought Stoll was surprisingly strong (though Esper really deserved the nom just as much), but found that last scene to be over the top and inauthentic. Could have just been an off night. I think his win would be an upset, given the ANYONE FROM STEREOPHONICS love. 

Pidgeon over Kara Young is an upset I am rooting for, which i feel bad about, bc Young is fantastic, I just thought this was the weakest performance Ive seen her give and Pidgeon was the heart/center of her show. Pulling for that Leslie Odom upset though!

And yes, i know i'm in the minority (i wont even suggest that Merrily shouldnt win) but I completely did not get what Groff was doing that was so special-- I like the guy, Ive seen him do great work, hes a fine actor, but I didnt think he made this character likable or believable. Havent seen Cabaret (and find the little I have seen of Redmayne in this role to be comically bad), so the real fantasy insane upset I would love to see is a win for.... Brody Grant. Carries a show, in a tricky role, without a false note, bway debut, etc. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/16/24 at 4:52pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "

Additionally, some Score & Orchestration stats:

 

• The only time a NEW score has won Best Orchestrations that didn'talso win Best Score was last year for SOME LIKE IT HOT."

Millie also won Orchestrations but not Score (and technically Billy Elliot would fall in this category too, but it of course tied in Orchestrations with Next to Normal which did win Score). But certainly still very rare.