Spidey's Recoupment

[JacksonMaine]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 4:42pm

Ok, so for reasons which have to do with boredom and idle curiosity I'm speculating on how long this show has to run to make back its investment. Looking back, I see that "Billy Elliot" recouped its $18 million investment in 14 months. Of course, "Billy" didn't cost $1 million a week to run, but it's not cheap, either. I've heard the figure $600k per week mentioned in the Times.

So assume that by the time Spidey opens (if ever) the budget is actually closer to $70 or $75 million than $65 million due to all these postponements, and figuring the difference in its running costs and "Billy's" running costs, it seems to me that multiplying Spidey's run by five would bring us pretty close to "Billy Elliot". Five times $18 million would be $80 million. Five times fourteen months would be 70 months or just under six years. So going by this...realizing there are probably other factors involved...is it reasonable to assume that if "Spidey" runs at the same (or close to the same) capacity as "Billy Elliot" that it would take about six years to recoup?

I know it actually seems a little low because of the monstrous budget but if "Billy" did indeed recoup after just over a year, then in actuality it's pretty daunting. The odds on running at that high a capacity for that long a time is probably pretty slim. So more realistically, assuming it was still running but the amount of people seeing it dropped off considerably year after year, perhaps an eight or nine year run would be more realistic in terms of recoupment...?

[wendilin622]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 4:58pm

NY Times ran the numbers a few weeks ago:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/spider-man-economics-recouping-that-initial-investment/?hp

They said it should take about 4 years or so....

[perfectlymarvelous]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 5:15pm

Since the costs have risen it's probably going to take them even longer than four years now though. And that's only if they become the next Wicked and sell out nearly every night.

[uncageg]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 5:20pm

perfect, my friend and I were just talking about that. If I am correct, Wicked has never been on the discount boards. If so, not for long I don't think. I see Spider-Man is. It seems that unless something really positive happens with this show it may continue to be on discount and, someone can correct me on this, it would take a bit longer to recoup if it does.

[fingerlakessinger]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 5:25pm

I've heard it's now closer to the $80 million mark now...which just pushes the time they have to run even further.
In order to make back their investment in less then 8 years...they are going to have to see out EVERY SINGLE show...but already they are discounting so I cant see this show ever getting it's investment back.

[JacksonMaine]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 6:42pm

Regarding the Times article, I think that's sort of my point. They projected it to be four years back in December of 2010 at almost optimum conditions, which I think now are unrealistic. It's moved its opening three times since then.

[joeyvalcort]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 6:48pm

Hi all -- two thoughts:

1. I'm not convinced that the postponements are really adding all that much to the capitalization of the show. By my calculations they've taken in approx. $7.25m against six full weeks of previews thus far. That leaves an extra $1.25m before they really start to add to the capitalization (assuming a $1.0m weekly operating cost).

2. While I have no doubt that they've spent tons and tons of money, there's been no indication that they've spent all of the $$$ they have raised to capitalize the show (the $65m-$70m that's been out there). There is always cushion in any capitalization for contingencies, reserves for losses.

Ahhh, who knows. I just hope it keeps running and running and running. A lot of work for lots of good people...

[yournamehere]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 7:27pm

It will never recoup.

[SNAFU]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 7:28pm

Joey, the postponement of the previews for two weeks did in fact add to the cost of the production, quite a bit. That is why they went ahead with previews even though they really hadn't finished working on the second act.
I believe the $65 million was used up quite a while ago. I have heard too that the costs are up in the $80-$82 million at this point. If things are in fact changing. so too will the costs go up.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 8:12pm

They will recoup selling the Spidey concessions

[Phantom of London]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 8:42pm

"I've heard it's now closer to the $80 million mark now...which just pushes the time they have to run even further."

How would the cost of the show rise by $15m in two months? I do not believe this figure, as the major cost would of been taken up, in show development before the show opened for preview. I do not believe a show could spend a additional $15m whilst in previews.

[bk]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 8:52pm

Mr. Valcourt, along with several other people who keep posting endlessly positive posts about this show, all joined this board in December of 2010. Call me a cynic, call me irresponsible, call me bwana, call me madam, but I just see shill written all over these posts.

[joeyvalcort]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 8:52pm

Snafu -- you are correct! The initial postponement most likely cost them dearly. The weekly cost (figure $1.5m maybe?), plus the loss of revenue ($1m -- maybe?), for a loss of over $2m/week.

I was thinking of the "internal" postponements (once previews began) probably aren't nearly as costly.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 9:01pm

They had to buy insurance for everyone connected with the show even the coat check girl as the show can be hazardous to ones health - hence the extra $ 15 million.

[dramarama3]

Posted: 1/14/11 at 9:16pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTmXHvGZiSY

[PReeves2]

Posted: 1/15/11 at 4:06pm

I'm placing bets that it will be over $90 million by the time this thing opens! the $65 million number is just way to old and came out way before people started getting injured and changes started getting made to the production.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 1/15/11 at 4:09pm

This looks like a massive tax write off for all concerned. Calling Leo Bloom

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 1/15/11 at 7:04pm

And people are starving in NJ.

[JRTO]

Posted: 1/16/11 at 7:59pm

It is utterly impossible for the show's budget to increase $15 million in 2 months (that's the entire cost to mount Wicked).

When they cancelled preview weeks, the only money lost was the revenue. Probably about 2 million. But the running costs comes out of the reserve already built into the budget. Most likely 2 months running costs. It doesn't increase the budget of the show by $2 million. or $4 million. or $15 million.

I'm sure it's still at $65 million. Other claims that they've heard it is $70 or $80 million by now are utterly ridiculous.

[marcblack]

Posted: 1/16/11 at 8:30pm

It's pretty simple how Spider-Man will recoup. Michael Cohl talks about it in a New York Time's article.

"I don’t know if I’ll ever make any money — here’s hoping,” he said. “If it ends up being a big hit and it can go tour everywhere, then I’ll stand to do great. If it just ends up being a big hit in New York, then I’ll have some fun.”

The business plan of Spider-Man is not based on recouping solely in New York. There's enormous front end costs in hoping they can stage subsequent productions globally, and eventually an arena tour. Granted this is a huge gamble. But Broadway is merely a piece of the puzzle, like any other international touring property (ex. Wicked).

[dramamama611]

Posted: 1/16/11 at 8:51pm

Maybe, but it will be considered a flop if it doesn't re-coup on B'way. That's the way it goes.

We will only know with time.

[jdtp12]

Posted: 1/16/11 at 8:55pm

I'm probably just being naive, but what do they spend so much money on that would cause the cost to rise so much when they delay?

[ggersten]

Posted: 1/16/11 at 9:16pm

Completely wild speculuation. The latest delays should not, in and of themselves, increase the cost. The budget is what it always was - the assumptions of cost and revenue are just different. But, since they're getting revenue of over 1m a week - and IF if costs less than the revenue they've been receiving for the same period of time, the total cost hasn't changed just based on the delay. However, who knows if Taymor has a contract that has a cap on it - or if she's getting paid to tinker with the show all this time. Her contract may have said she was to deliver a finished show by X date or she might get paid for whatever time it takes to get a finished show she gets paid X no matter when it is finished. Since the opening has been delayed, they could be paying Taymor extra. Then, who knows if Bono and The Edge are being paid extra to come back and fix music. Then, there is extra orchestration work and time and rehearsals that should not be happening now. And little things for the extra work being done - housing, food, other expenses with keeping Taymor in NYC and Bono/Edge. How much extra that is or if it even is - I have no idea.

There also could be extra money in design work. Since supposedly much of the flying was programmed - every change in the show requires new programming for the flying sequences.

There may be extra expenses in redesign due to NYC "safety" inspections.

But since I'm not an investor, I have no access to the books (the real ones or the Bialystock ones), and so have no idea.

[PReeves2]

Posted: 1/16/11 at 10:38pm

the insurance premium alone has got be be quite costly and could have gone up a great deal recently.

[JacksonMaine]

Posted: 1/16/11 at 11:39pm

"When they cancelled preview weeks, the only money lost was the revenue. Probably about 2 million. But the running costs comes out of the reserve already built into the budget. Most likely 2 months running costs. It doesn't increase the budget of the show by $2 million. or $4 million. or $15 million.

I'm sure it's still at $65 million. Other claims that they've heard it is $70 or $80 million by now are utterly ridiculous."

Actually, I think what's ridiculous is to assume that a show can postpone for six weeks to continue doing work and only lose the box office money. If you've worked on Broadway shows (or even Off Broadway shows) you know that costs go up tremendously when you postpone an opening; from marketing to advertising to personnel to copying costs for the new music. To say that it was $65 million but no way can it be $70 million with a six week postponement of opening night seems naive.