Tony Nom Predictions- Page 4

[bdn223]

Posted: 4/23/12 at 11:44pm

@Wickedrocks
Once isnt elligible because none of the songs were written for the stage production...the songs added were off albums of its composers

Newsies has 8 new songs out of 15 in total as well as new reprises and an underscore

does that help clear things up...I am not trying to sound like a jacka**

[Jonwo]

Posted: 4/23/12 at 11:48pm

From a regional theatre POV, Newsies is a lot more sellable to audiences compared to Once which may work in its favour when it comes to winning the Tony but the show IMO doesn't need awards, it's selling really well and likely to do the same on tour.

Set Design I think Nice Work or Once will get that, Newsies' set was effective but I wouldn't give it an award.

[philly03]

Posted: 4/23/12 at 11:50pm

I think Bonnie & Clyde has two shots at nominations: Melissa van der Schyff as Blanche in Featured Actress/musical, and Best Score.

[Back Row]

Posted: 4/23/12 at 11:51pm

I know nothing about the politics of the Tony awards, but is the Broadway community so anxious to run Frank Wildhorn out of town that they would ignore what most consider to be his best score in a year when there is so little competition in that category?

[philly03]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 12:00am

The other two years he was snubbed there was legitimate competition. Last year was legitimately, 100% a snub for WONDERLAND (including only nominating four actresses.. although there were only six in contention).

Also based on the reviews and short runs of the last two, I'd vouch to say that his next piece, Zelda (based off the lives of Zelda and F. Scott Fitzgerald) will have already an extremely difficult time making it any where near New York (despite a great, up & coming director in Vincent Marini).

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 12:02am

I know nothing about the politics of the Tony awards, but is the Broadway community so anxious to run Frank Wildhorn out of town that they would ignore what most consider to be his best score in a year when there is so little competition in that category?

Zzzzzz. Yes, everyone is so anxious to run him out of town.

[theatreguy]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 12:08am

philly03 - the rules state that there must be 7 eligible performers for one of those categories to have 5 nominees. Since there were only 6 leading actresses last year, the category was reduced to 4.

[CockeyedOptimist2]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 12:31am

In my opinion, Wonderland's lack of Tony nominations did not represent a snub, as I found it terrible from start to finish in every single way. I do, however, think that Bonnie and Clyde's score was the best original score of the season (haven't seen Newsies yet) and if it isn't nominated, I would consider that a snub, though a likely one.

[philly03]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 12:42am

Thanks for the info theatreguy. I actually did not know that.

I think it's considered a snub when the only New York theatre award you're nominated for is an Astaire Award. I think WONDERLAND was just as qualified as the others on Choreography (all those styles by Marguerite Derricks) and Orchestrations (by the great Kim Scharnberg), which covered a large variety of genres from salsa to '90s pop to rock. I am not suggesting Janet Dacal should've been nominated (the role itself was terrible).

[bwayrose7]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 2:36pm

With Ghost getting fairly weak reviews will it still sneak into Best Musical? I think it might just for lack of another 4th show. As far as which will win I'd personally like to see Newsies take it.

[roadmixer]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 3:52pm

If we consider ONCE, NEWSIES and NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT to be the first 3 contenders for Best Musical, who fills the 4th spot?

LEAP OF FAITH
GHOST
SPIDER MAN blah blah blah
BONNIE & CLYDE
LYSISTRATA JONES

I think that it is between LEAP and GHOST.

[supersam1026]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 3:59pm

After the reviews for Ghost, I'm now thinking that Lysistrata Jones has a very good chance of sneaking in there. Just look at last year and how well The Scottsboro Boys did, despite it closing in December. Yes, I understand that Scottsboro was a far superior show to Lysistrata, but compared to the other nominees I don't think the idea is too far fetched

Updated On: 4/24/12 at 03:59 PM

[broadwaydevil]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 4:00pm

Honestly, the 4th slot could be anyone's at that point. Unless Leap somehow gets better than expected reviews , I'd be unsurprised if any of those five took the last slot. It could be Lysistrata Jones though since the nominating committee has seemed to fill categories with well-reviewed, closed shows recently.

[broadwaydevil]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 4:00pm

My thoughts exactly, supersam.

[roadmixer]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 4:21pm

Reviews don't necessarily jive with Tony Nominations...

[CukorLover]

Posted: 4/24/12 at 4:25pm

"Newsies will win score, but Once will win Orchestrations
Newsies wins book, Once wins sound design
Newsies Wins choreography, Once wins set design
Newsies and Once fight over director, but i think Newsies will take that
then comes best musical...i honestly think it is all dependent on momentum from the the previous awards so who ever wins the outer critics circle since it will be the first to be announced will likely sweep the rest alla Memphis "

There is no way Jeff Calhoun (Newsies) will win best director over John Tiffany (Once). There was just more creativity in the staging of ONCE than there was in the more pedestrian Newsies.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 8:38am

"If we consider ONCE, NEWSIES and NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT to be the first 3 contenders for Best Musical, who fills the 4th spot?

LEAP OF FAITH
GHOST
SPIDER MAN blah blah blah
BONNIE & CLYDE
LYSISTRATA JONES

I think that it is between LEAP and GHOST."

Your locks are correct but your list of possible round-offs makes me think the Committee might well choose only three contenders.

[roadmixer]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 11:21am

I think that it might be LEAP OF FAITH. The show has many people involved who are long-time Broadway producers and creatives and their friends are the nominators and voters.

LYSISTRATA and B&C are closed. SPIDEY is off limits due to the fact that it has been deemed unworthy by everyone and their dog. GHOST will be an unpopular choice because nominators would see that as elevating the importance of technology as opposed to music, lyric, story and acting content.

This is probably why the LEAP OF FAITH producers are staying the course in the face of financial difficulty... the chance of a Tony nomination for Best Musical.

[chanel]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 1:03pm

Villagevoice.com s predicting Spider-Man for a Best Musical nomination, for good reason.

http://blogs.villagevoice.com/dailymusto/2012/04/will_spider-man_2.php

[roadmixer]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 1:20pm

Let's not forget that Michael Musto is not a theatre critic for starters. He can say whatever he likes and it shouldn't be taken any more seriously than Michael Riedel. Secondly, the fact that tourists are paying big bucks for Spider Man means nothing to Tony nominators who are industry insiders.

[bdn223]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 5:58pm

@CukorLover
I agree with you 100% but as i said i think the two are going to battle the best direction category out...and the winner like the best musical category will be determined by momentum from previous awards with Follies coming out on top
Also i retract the best set design win for once...i think that is going to be a three way race between Newsies Spiderman and Follies

[Copperfield2]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 7:46pm

I want Leap of Faith to get a Tony nomination for Best Musical just to make a lot of people crazy.

[jimcookjr]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 8:24pm

Do I see nomination predictions for Ghost? Let's be realistic here. Newsies and Once all the way.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 4/25/12 at 8:50pm

I agree with the 'locks' but I have no idea who will get that forth -- I don't think any other show is truly worthy of the nom.
I would LOVE to see only 3 shows nominated if those were truly the only 'worthy' ones. (For every category.)

[kyl3fong2]

Posted: 4/26/12 at 12:29am

Has it been confirmed if Ricky Martin and Michael Cerveris will be in the Lead or Featured categories?