Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 7/16/17- Page 5

[Big Apple2]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 5:44pm

HogansHero said: "@Big Apple2. Yes, to an extent, but for starters you need to reduce the gross by 10% to come up with the net gross that is available to the production. And then you need to recognize that the week in which there is an announcement of recoupment is not the same as the week in which the show recouped. There is no requirement to announce at all, and there is no urgency. Moreover, determining if a show has in fact recouped requires that the full accounting be completed and that can take some time. So if you make the deduction and then shave a week or 2 off then you should be closer. There are other factors as well, including the impact of pre-recoupment royalty arrangements and any deferrals that have to be accounted for before you have technically recouped."

Based on your comments (i.e. 10% reduction and shaving off 3 weeks instead of two), the weekly production costs come to $725,000.  That still seems a little high for this show.

 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 5:59pm

Big Apple2 said: "Based on your comments (i.e. 10% reduction and shaving off 3 weeks instead of two), the weekly production costs come to $725,000.  That still seems a little high for this show." 

now factor in the post by Liza's Headband fwiw and you will have a grab bag of alternative scenarios. 

[binau]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 6:45pm

I hope War Paint is advertising in mediums more accessible to the target demographic (particularly older women) and not relying on the internet/facebook/twitter. The Wednesday 2pm show is almost always the best-selling show. This target demographic is probably not best reached using facebook.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 6:50pm

qolbinau said: "I hope War Paint is advertising in mediums more accessible to the target demographic (particularly older women) and not relying on the internet/facebook/twitter. The Wednesday 2pm show is almost always the best-selling show. This target demographic is probably not best reached using facebook."

Good point. For what it's worth, I've taken Metro North trains into Connecticut a couple times over the past few months, and War Paint by far has the greatest number of occupied signboard ad spaces at the Fairfield County stops these days.

[aimeric]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 6:54pm

BroadwayConcierge said: "qolbinau said: "I hope War Paint is advertising in mediums more accessible to the target demographic (particularly older women) and not relying on the internet/facebook/twitter. The Wednesday 2pm show is almost always the best-selling show. This target demographic is probably not best reached using facebook."

Good point. For what it's worth, I've taken Metro North trains into Connecticut a couple times over the past few months, and War Paint by far has the greatest number of occupied signboard ad spaces at the Fairfield County stops these days.

"

It's also well represented at the Westchester County stops. 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 6:59pm

froote said: "Not saying Minchin is a box office draw but you can't compare him to Dave Malloy who is a complete unknown.

 

"Minchin isn't?  He is to me.  

For reasons that I can't articulate, I've never had any interest in seeing Matilda -- I think its because several people whose opinions I respect didn't like it at all; if I had attended, I would have remembered his name.  Short of that, I have no idea who he is.  On the other hand, I have heard of Dave Malloy for several years, if for no other reason for reading about the evolution of The Great Comet in any number of theatre articles.

 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 7:07pm

poisonivy2 said: "Dallas Theatre Fan said: "I would like to add on to the comments I had yesterday concerning GHD.

I never really understood why the producers decided to have its tryout in London if their end goal was to open it on Broadway. If they were smart they should have transferred the show to the West End for about a year to build anticipation for Broadway like they did with Matilda. I think they would had have a better chance because it seems most shows next year are family oriented, (Frozen and Harry Potter) while this year, the show is lost in the dear Even Hanson, Come from Away and, The Great Come sea.

"

Just a conjecture: the role of Phil is extremely taxing and had GHD stayed another year in West End it might have been hard to transfer Andy Karl as well. I mean he's doing the show right now with a blown out knee. 

 

If that were the case -- and an injury is different from fatigue -- I am not sure that his ongoing participation would have mattered if the show had built up a serious identity, per the original post.  It has been made crystal clear that Andy Karl does not sell tickets. 

His being in the show or not would not have been a serious factor IMO unless it was a monster hit on the West End.  

 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 7:09pm

froote said: "Tourists would know Minchin (UK, Australia, New Zealand etc.), he tours regularly. Likely not enough to make it a success but Jarethan's comparison to Malloy is nonsensical as that wasn't done in any way for box office success.

 

In this country, Malloy is the same as Minchin...not gonna sell tickets.  Seriously though, what is Minchin's claim to fame overseas.  I really did never hear of him.

 

[froote]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 7:10pm

Jarethan in the UK and Australia (maybe other places?) Minchin is a household name and not because of his musicals.

[Jarethan]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 7:18pm

froote said: "Jarethan in the UK and Australia (maybe other places?) Minchin is a household name and not because of his musicals.

 

But seriously, especially if it was running in London, how many tickets would he sell?  I can't imagine Australia and NZ account for many ticket sales in NYC -- not sure, but seems reasonable -- so it'd really depend on Great Britain.  I just can't believe that his participation would make much of a different to the NYC box office, particularly if the show was playing in London, which was conjectured somewhere in this series of posts.

I always hate it when a show I love closes because other people could not get excited about seeing it; and, over the past 50 (ugh) years, there have been a lot of them.  I just have not seen stunt casting work in the past for a show that people just didn't want to see in the first place.  If Sting couldn't sell tickets to The Last Ship...

 

[froote]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 7:26pm

As I said before, it probably wouldn't make a big enough difference but he's still not comparable to Malloy and it certainly wouldn't have a negative effect on the box office as you suggested. The show was only on in the UK for a matter of months. As for your question about what he is known for, he does comedy through songs and music.

Updated On: 7/18/17 at 07:26 PM

[JustAnotherNewYorker]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 9:19pm

How about my second idea?

 

"What they really need to do is to get Bill Murray to play the beggar (Mr. Johnson)..".

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 10:42pm

what difference does it make if neither one can save the show? That's the topic at hand. Even if we assume for sake of argument that one is known by more people than the other, you have acknowledged that neither is gonna turn around the sinking ship with which they are involved.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 11:01pm

Liza's Headband said: "DEH's capitalization was not 9.5 mill, despite what the announcement claims. It was higher. The weekly operating costs for DEH hover around $600k. Relatively cheap to run for a smash-hit musical. 

Nope. It was originally capitalized at $9 million, which was raised to $9.5 million not long before it opened. And the nut, prior to royalties, is under $500,000  

 

"

 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/18/17 at 11:10pm

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Nope. It was originally capitalized at $9 million, which was raised to $9.5 million not long before it opened. And the nut, prior to royalties, is under $500,000 ."
 

are you referring to the nut in the offering papers, or the actual nut?

 

[froote]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 12:30am

HogansHero said: "what difference does it make if neither one can save the show? That's the topic at hand. Even if we assume for sake of argument that one is known by more people than the other, you have acknowledged that neither is gonna turn around the sinking ship with which they are involved."

Let it go. I was simply informing Jarethan that Minchin isn't a complete unknown.

[haterobics]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 3:05am

Jarethan said: "Dave Malloy did not help the box office one iota."

Not sure that is entirely true. It likely fell less than it would if it were total understudies in Groban's absence, since the Comet faithful made special trips to see him in it that wouldn't have if it were just the understudy performing.

I bought a $179 onstage seat just to see Dave, and many around me had done the same.

[Lot666]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 8:15am

Jarethan said: "In this country, Malloy is the same as Minchin...not gonna sell tickets.  Seriously though, what is Minchin's claim to fame overseas.  I really did never hear of him."

My awareness of Tim Minchin came from seeing Matilda the Musical, which I loved. I'm not a Bill Murray fan and never saw the Groundhog Day movie; had Mr. Minchin not been the composer/lyricist for Groundhog Day the Musical, I would have had absolutely no interest in the show. He was the singular reason why I decided to give it a try.

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 11:19am

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Liza's Headband said: "DEH's capitalization was not 9.5 mill, despite what the announcement claims. It was higher. The weekly operating costs for DEH hover around $600k. Relatively cheap to run for a smash-hit musical. 

Nope. It was originally capitalized at $9 million, which was raised to $9.5 million not long before it opened. And the nut, prior to royalties, is under $500,000  "

 

Incorrect. It is clear to me you're basing your knowledge off what information is publicly available. Those public filings do not disclose the additional $2.5 million in developmental costs this property has incurred dating back to 2010.  Also, the nut has actually gone down since recoupment -- not up. 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 12:19pm

Headband says: " Those public filings do not disclose the additional $2.5 million in developmental costs this property has incurred dating back to 2010. "

While no doubt those costs were incurred during development, they are not factored into the capitalization of the Broadway production. In other words, those costs were not incurred by anyone who might have been an investor in the Broadway production which was capitalized at $9.5 million. Thus, they were not factored into the calculation of when the show recouped. It recouped when the weekly profits earned by the show reached $9.5 million, not $12 million or whatever you're suggesting.

At least this is what has been explained to me by someone who has invested in Broadway shows in the past. Perhaps she's wrong. If so, I'll stand corrected.

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 12:23pm

Just pm'ed you.  xo 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 1:24pm

Just responded. 

[annenyc2]

Posted: 7/19/17 at 1:42pm

I've seen Bandstand full-price 3 times now, I really hope it holds on. Tomorrow I'm going to get rush tickets. While I know it isn't objectively the best show, it's my favorite show of this season and definitely on my list of all-time. It had me captivated from the opening scene and was an emotional ride all the way through. The musical numbers are the most fun I've ever seen, with emotional scenes that moved me to tears. The finale number is unbelievable, everyone there is insanely talented. 

I feel like it has good word-of-mouth appeal, and I'm guessing it might outlast Groundhog Day. I didn't enjoy that show at all if I'm being honest.