Tony Awards 2018 Winner Predictions Thread- Page 7

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 11:07pm

I don't think there's any hate for Once on this Island whatsoever. If it was hated, it'd be shut out of nominations or had a Frozen like nomination tally. Really, the word "hate" is being used too loosely in this case. The nominations just turned out the way it did. It got in most of the categories people expected. There were only like two featured performers that were hyped up earlier on that missed out mostly due to Carousel performing better than expected. Rather than "hate" I just think people underestimated how much the nominating committee (and Drama Desk) liked the Carousel production. Even Ben Brantley liked it much more than the posters here and said it SHOULD win Best Revival over both OotI and MFL, both productions much better received by the critics and the posters here. If OotI fails to win a bunch of Tonys tomorrow, it just means more voting members liked other productions' achievements more, but it doesn't mean they hated OotI.

Updated On: 6/9/18 at 11:07 PM

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 6/9/18 at 11:44pm

Elfuhbuh said: "The Sponge soaks in all the big awards."

Well, I just got home after seeing “The Sponge” and I find that statement laughable. It was one of the worst musicals I’ve ever seen and I’ve been going for a long, LONG time. I wish the volcano erupts and buries this mess in steaming lava.

And I have no idea why Slater is the favorite for best actor in a musical. While talented, his performance pales, in my opinion, compared to both Shalhoub and Haden-Patton. 

 

 

[BeadleDeedle]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 2:29am

^ geez, what a Squidward

[theatered100]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 6:12am

First time posting my predictions!

BEST MUSICAL: 
The Band’s Visit
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:
My Fair Lady
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
Katrina Lenk, The Band’s Visit
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
Lindsay Mendez, Carousel
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL:
Mean Girls, Tina Fey
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Band's Visit, David Yazbek
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:
Michael Yeargan, My Fair Lady
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:
Catherine Zuber, My Fair Lady
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:
Tyler Micoleau, The Band’s Visit
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:
Mike Dobson and Walter Trarbach, SpongeBob SquarePants
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL:
Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY:
Justin Peck, Carousel
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS:
Jamshied Sharifi, The Band’s Visit

Updated On: 6/10/18 at 06:12 AM

[lilac3]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 6:45am

Mine

Best Musical - The Band's Visit

Best Revival of a Musical - My Fair Lady

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical - Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical - Katrina Lenk, Tha Band's Visit

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical - Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical - Lindsay Mendez, Carousel

Best Book of a Musical - Tina Fey, Mean Girls

Best Original Score - David Yazbeck, The Band's Visit

Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Dan Laffrey, Once on this Island

Best Costume Design of a Musical - Catherine Zuber, My Fair Lady

Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Once on this Island

Best Sound Design of a Musical - Walter Trarbach & Mike Dobson, SpongeBob SquarePants

Best Direction of a Musical - David Cromer, The Band's Visit

Best Choreography - Justin Peck, Carousel

Best Orchestrations - Jamshied Sharifi, The Band's Visit

 

Totals

The Band's Visit 7

My Fair Lady 2

Carousel 2

Once on this Island 2

Mean Girls 1

SpongeBob SquarePants 1

[Melissa25]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 6:58am

Great Dame said If Bobby Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez don't win score something is seriously wrong in my opinion.

I completely agree.  And I am rooting for The Bands Visit to win best musical but score should go to Frozen.

[After Eight]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 8:15am

The only award that really affects the box office is already a foregone conclusion, so there's nothing to predict there.

And now the big day is here. In the good old days, I would look forward to it. Now, I'm afraid I face it with a sort of grim resignation coupled with dread. Sadder still, this seems to have been the case for eons.

For too many years now, as entertainment, the shows have been lame, even cringeworthy: the forced banter; the sorry attempts at humor; the narcissistic, never-ending acceptance speeches. It was so much better when the awards were televised locally, and presented in a ballroom with people seated at tables. It was short, it was sweet, winners made a few gracious, heartfelt comments, and went back to their seats. And no lectures!  I hope we won't be subjected to any tonight --- but is that likely?

And then the awards themselves. This year offers a repetition of the same sorry scenario we see year after year after year: the coronation of a critics' darling that will induce unsuspecting people to buy tickets to something they will hate. That is not good for the public, and not good for the theatre. 

The New York Times article quoting the attitudes of some Tony Award voters (and do they ever possess attitude!) shows what we're up against. In other words, we're up against it.

Well, enjoy the show!

 

[WaffleOnWheels]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 11:29am

I'm having a gut feeling that there's going to be a 2015 Ruthie Ann Miles situation. I think more voters will go for Fleming than we think, and Ashley Park might take it. 

My brain however, still thinks Mendez will win. My gut disagrees.

[benwilsonn.xo]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 11:43am

Once On This Island was by far the best revival of the season, My Fair Lady didn’t do much different than all the other revivals that have come before it!

[Sauja]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 1:18pm

I had a tough time with predictions this year, especially in the design categories. Will they go for the wacky exuberance of SpongeBob or the sumptuously traditional of My Fair Lady? Or could they split the vote clearing room for a Once on This Island surprise in costumes or scenery? Ditto direction of a musical--I'm still surprised by both of last year's director wins (even though Taichman did my favorite work, I didn't expect her to take it!), and I'm wondering here if it's almost anybody's game. I can see a case to be made for Cromer, Landau, Sher, or Arden (I reallllllly don't see it being Nicholaw's year). And as for Best Actor in a Musical...I legitimately think it's a four way race and any one of them can take the win this year. I don't even know who I'm rooting for anymore.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 1:22pm

benwilsonn.xo said: "Once On This Island was by far the best revival of the season, My Fair Lady didn’t do much different than all the other revivals that have come before it!"

I completely disagree. What it did wasn’t a complete reimagining but it had the more difficult task of taking a truly beloved classic that most people had high expectations for and gave it a fresh energy and vitality and making it work in 2018, by doing many subtle but vital changes in tone and intent. Doing a show like MFL has an extra obstacle of having the production be seen as unimportant or a garden-variety replication of what we’ve seen many times before, and yet this production completely avoids that. That is a lot more difficult than you are understanding.

Updated On: 6/10/18 at 01:22 PM

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 1:37pm

I think it's harder to take a musical that isn't perfect and make a truly stunning production of it that changes how it will be forever viewed. I've seen the last couple of My Fair Lady revivals and this one really isn't special, aside for a great modern ending. Once on this Island though is an example of a truly exceptional revival. I still think My Fair Lady will win and I do sense that there is some sort of agenda against OOTI. Perhaps due to the fact that people really can't stand Ken Davenport.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 1:41pm

I think My Fair Lady will win because it is a superior production than Once on This Island.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 1:59pm

Once on this Island didn't have the high standards and preconceived notions and expectations that My Fair Lady had. I honestly do think it's easier to take an imperfect musical and totally re-conceive it in a way that impresses people because people will give you lots of leeway to do whatever you want to it so long as the book and score remains more-or-less intact. Classic masterpieces have a lot of less wiggle room and people get angry at any alteration. 

Also, I doubt most Tony voters care about Ken Davenport or whatever. I don't understand why some have to make OoTI out to be some sort of victim. If it loses, it loses. It's not like it's going to lose to a production on the level of Escape from Margaritaville, which then I would think there was some agenda against it. I know some really want OoTI to win and don't like where these races are going, but OoTI still has a strong chance to win and it's not like some nobodies are running it. They are succeeding in campaigning as the progressively-minded David against the old-fashioned Goliath (appealing to the Tumblr crowd and advertised their Tony performance with relief victims to get some of the goodwill vote), and trying to paint Lincoln Center as some giant monster to slay. Even if some truly dislike this production My Fair Lady, so many loved it and it received some of the best reviews this season. Therefore, OoTI losing to MFL would not be inconceivable nor would it be a robbery considering how many people liked both productions. 

Anyway, Carousel can still win and truly piss people off.

 

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 2:09pm

I never said OoTI will be robbed. I don't think it's getting robbed. My Fair Lady has been the clear favorite for quite some time. This is no shock. However, it's surprising to me that OOTI, a production that is as well put together as it is, is likely to walk away completely empty-handed. Hopefully they honor it in some way, but I do think the lack of love for Ken Davenport has really hurt it's chances at being recognized at all. I mean, he's REALLY disliked. I think My Fair Lady will win, but I agree with the poster who felt that OOTI had the better production. I just had a problem with how sleepy this production of My Fair Lady was. I also didn't care for the libretto changes.

[Sondheimite]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 2:11pm

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Elfuhbuh said: "The Sponge soaks in all the big awards."

Well, I just got home after seeing “The Sponge” and I find that statement laughable. It was one of the worst musicals I’ve ever seen and I’ve been going for a long,LONG time. I wish the volcano erupts and buries this messin steaming lava.

And I have no idea why Slater is the favorite for best actor in a musical. While talented, his performance pales, in my opinion, compared to both Shalhoub and Haden-Patton.



"

You must be fun at parties....

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 2:12pm

I just don't see how it's "hated" which makes it sound like if it loses any thing, then it's being robbed because it lost for reasons outside of merit. This production OoTI is incredible and creative. However, the competition  in many of the categories is actually surprisingly high for a season with little depth in choices. So it's a situation where beautiful productions will miss out on Tonys because there is actual competition.

[Littleshopofcarrie]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 2:16pm

While I’m wasn’t a huge Michael Arden fan before I saw it, I think the award should go to Once On This Island. No one on broadway is doing what they are achieving in the Circle in the Square. A production like My Fair Lady has been done before and will be done again but I was just totally captivated by Once On This Island.

[benwilsonn.xo]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 2:19pm

Littleshopofcarrie said: "While I’m wasn’t a huge Michael Arden fan before I saw it, I think the award should go to Once On This Island. No one on broadway is doing what they are achieving in the Circle in the Square. A production like My Fair Lady has been done before and will be done again but I was just totally captivated by Once On This Island."

Totally agree!

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 2:25pm

This is why I predict OoTI to be the actual favorite for Best Revival. I keep hearing sentiments like that and I think there's a not-so-quiet whispering about why OoTI is so special among the community and sentiment that reveals that people really are taking what Lincoln Center and Sher did with MFL for granted thinking what they did was easy or what everybody else did before and all he had to do was copy and paste. I think Sher and Lincoln Center are held to a different standard and that will lead to a OoTI Best Revival win.

[Elegance101]

Posted: 6/10/18 at 5:55pm

I think Leading Actor is between Ethan Slater and Joshua Henry. Ethan if they want to give it for the actual performance, but I think they'll give it to Joshua Henry for the same reason they'll give it to Lindsay Mendez; they've been around the block and have consistently given great performances, this one included. Slater and Ashley Park in Mendez's category will have their time a little later. That's my view, at least.

EDIT: I also feel like the critics liked Carousel a lot more than we did on here, so I think they have more of a chance at a lot of awards than we think. Something in my gut says Joshua Henry is winning, I'm not sure why.

Updated On: 6/10/18 at 05:55 PM