Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 18

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 10:53am

Joan has a shot since I think Waverly may get the most love out of the play revivals, so the love for that show may jolt her into that category. Such a competitive season for plays though. As someone who hasn't followed them too closely, are the plays generally this strong and competitive? I feel the past few musical seasons have been so weak, and are often more imbalanced in terms of consistent quality of productions, but I have seen a lot of plays this year and while some were better than others, all were very high quality imo. But comparing Hadestown to Pretty Woman, they're just on different levels I feel. Wasnt sure if this is just the way the industry is gong or if the plays that land on broadway tend to be more consistent. 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 3:24pm

Mike Barrett said: "As someone who hasn't followed them too closely, are the plays generally this strong and competitive?"

This is an exceptionally crowded season for great plays! I feel like the musicals usually get most of the Tony buzz, but it's really about the plays this year. I do not envy the nominating committee, particularly when it comes to Best Play and the acting awards. Hell, I think there could be 8 nominees for Leading Actor in a Play and it would be totally justified.

But as with any awards show, it's all cyclical. This is a very strong play year, but certainly not the first time. And just like there are a few really solid musicals and a handful of meh musicals this particular season, the same often happens with plays, and it could easily reverse next year. I'm not sure it's any indication of industry direction... all any producer wants in any year is a show that captures an audience and becomes a hit. 

FWIW, I agree that I can see Joan Allen getting a nod.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 3:37pm

IdinaBellFoster said: "Kelli got some nice notices, but nothing on the level of her performance in THE KING & I or BRIDGES. The only person standing in the way of Block winning is Rebecca Naomi Jones - and even then I think Block takes it."

I wouldn't rule out Beth Leavel. Previous Tony winner + across-the-board (yes?) raves for her standout performance could be a justified win. The Prom got overall better reviews than Cher Show, which might help it, and O'Hara's reviews were more mixed than either Block or Leavel. But I'm super interested to see the Oklahoma reviews, especially for the performances. 

Also, none of the women in discussion this year have the kind of Celie/Dolly Levi/Reno Sweeney type of role where there's a clear star, so I think this is potentially more open than we think!

[WestEndGal]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 4:10pm

IdinaBellFoster said: "Kelli got some nice notices, but nothing on the level of her performance in THE KING & I or BRIDGES. The only person standing in the way of Block winning is Rebecca Naomi Jones - and even then I think Block takes it."

I think Block could win it by virtue of it being a weak year for the Tonys, and the fact that the voters may deem that “it’s her time” (which I hate btw).  Kelli’s gotten good reviews overall for Kiss Me Kate but not agreed not at her usual level. However, her advantage is that Kiss Me Kate, whilst not receiving rave reviews, definitely has better reviews than The Cher Show, which likely won’t get a best musical nom, which could harm Stephanie’s chances.

[Miles2Go2]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 4:41pm

Out of the 18 reviews I read, I would say five to seven leaned negative of the production as a whole. The rest leaned much more positive. Even some of those negative reviews highlighted O’Hara’s performance as a positive. I do think this will be Block’s year (I haven’t seen The Cher Show) because she hasn’t won before and because she is reportedly the overwhelmingly best thing about a show that many feel is mediocre.

[undercoveractor]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 5:53pm

I have a question about SJB being the front runner for the Tony. She was out when I saw the show, but I have to say that it was the most disappointing evening I’ve had on broadway in a while. I thought the show was just BAD!  It looked cheap, seemed haphazardly cobbled together, and worst of all...boring. How do you make Cher..of all people...boring ?!?! 

So my question. Is SJB the whole show? Perhaps all of the elements only work when she is in it, but even so I can’t imagine that role setting up an actor to take home trophies. What did she do that the standby couldn’t?

( I am seriously not being snarky. It sucks that she was out because I would have liked to see her, but there is just no way I can sit through that show again.)

Updated On: 3/15/19 at 05:53 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 8:02pm

She’s a great Cher. But I do think a lot of the Tony praise & hope this year is based around body of work, and the fact that a very talented and well-liked actress doesn’t yet have a Tony award.

[AngusN]

Posted: 3/16/19 at 6:44am

In much the same way that Kelli won for The King and I. SJB can only compete against others that season, let’s not diminish her talent. Her performance in Falsettos was one of the greatest performances I’ve ever wirnesses; she didn’t win, and yet a performer from a much popular show did - it’s swings and roundabouts.

[WestEndGal]

Posted: 3/18/19 at 9:37am

AngusN said: "In much the same way that Kelli won for The King and I. SJB can only compete against others that season, let’s not diminish her talent. Her performance in Falsettos was one of the greatest performances I’ve ever wirnesses; she didn’t win, and yet a performer from a much popular show did - it’s swings and roundabouts."

No one is diminishing her talent but I’m strongly in the camp that the best performance in the year in question should win, and the body of work / it’s their time factor shouldn’t apply. Same applies with the Oscars. It’s so annoying that Meryl Streep, for instance, only has to appear in a movie these days, regardless of quality of her performance compared to others that year, to get a nomination. That to me takes away a nomination from some who may have actually been more deserving that year. 

 

 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/18/19 at 9:52am

Its still very early in their previews, but Im expecting Gary and the coming in very well reviewed INK to take up the last 2 remaining Best Play slots. IF there is a 5th, Im thinking its going to be Hillary and Clinton. While I think Cranston cold bring Network alone into that 5th slot, I suspect Hillary and Clinton will snatch it up. Should be fun to see how it all plays out however. 

 

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 3/18/19 at 11:26am

I'm not sure Gary will be nominated for Best Play. I think it's deserving of a nom, but I think it might be too divisive. I do think it's possible that all three leads land nominations and they get a ton of tech awards. I hope it makes it in for play.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/18/19 at 12:51pm

GeorgeandDot said: "I'm not sure Gary will be nominated for Best Play. I think it's deserving of a nom, but I think it might be too divisive. I do think it's possible that all three leads land nominations and they get a ton of tech awards. I hope it makes it in for play."

Even tho it is technically a sequel, Im hoping they appreciate the originality of the piece. Granted I have not seen Gary but from what I have read and know, seems like they are expanding on an idea and I love that. Not sure that will matter to folks however. I also keep forgetting What The Constitution Means To Me. I believe that has a chance as well. Especially since Latin History for Morons just played last season I believe. Honestly its fun that this awards show likely won't be very predictable. In an age of the Oscars where we know who will win all the acting categories months ahead of time, who the likely best picture is, same with the Emmy's, its refreshing that seeing who will make nominations and who will actually win seems to be a legit competition. Really exciting if youre an awards nerd! 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 5:30pm

After seeing Ain't Too Proud last night, I'm really rooting for Derrick Baskin to take a Lead Actor in a Musical nomination. He was truly the heart of that show and held it together so beautifully. 

Obviously too early to call with so many other contenders in that category not open yet, but right now my prediction/hope will be Ashmanskas, Baskin, Daunno, Fontana... and either Will Chase or Alex Brightman depending on Beetlejuice's reviews. 

(All assuming that Baskin will be considered as Lead, of course.)

[Miles2Go2]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 5:58pm

This may have already been discussed, but will Hadestown even be eligible for best original score since the music was mostly featured on Anais Mitchell’s 2010 album?

[JBroadway]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 7:31pm

Miles2Go2 said: "This may have already been discussed, but will Hadestown even be eligible for best original score since the music was mostly featured on Anais Mitchell’s 2010 album?"

 

It has been discussed, but I don't blame you for asking again. I participated in those discussions and I don't even remember when/in what thread those discussions took place. Anyway, I'll say basically what I've said before: 

The score should be, and likely will be eligible because the stage show show has had a very long development period, which predates the concept album. According to Wikipedia (the most trustworthy of sources!) the album was made after workshops of the material had already been done. So the score was written for the show, but they recorded it as a concept album so the music could be preserved even though the album wasn't directly attached to an existing production. Shows like JCS and Evita also had concept albums prior to their onstage premieres, and both shows went on to get nominated or win Best Score

This is in contrast with a show like American Idiot; even though that album was written with a loose narrative in mind, and is sometimes referred to as a "concept album," the album was still an independent entity, which was only later taken and turned into a musical. 

 

[Miles2Go2]

Posted: 3/19/19 at 7:36pm

Makes sense I suppose it would be like Sara’s album of Waitress songs before there was the show was on Broadway and their was an OBCR.

[TFMH18]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 6:55pm

^The Sara/Waitress album likening is very apt. Yes, Hadestown will be eligible for score (and IMO is already the lock to win). 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/20/19 at 7:45pm

I'm thinking Best Play right now is going to be:

The Ferryman

Gary: A Sequel To Titus Andronicus

Ink

To Kill A Mockinbird



5th spot would go to Hillary and Clinton

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/21/19 at 12:30pm

Bebe Neuwirth and Brandon Victor Dixon will announce the nominees on April 30. Id assume on CBS This Morning? Cant believe were just about a month away! 

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 3/21/19 at 12:42pm

Play:

The Ferryman 

To Kill A Mockingbird

Ink

Choir Boy - Hillary and Clinton - What The Constitution Means To Me

Updated On: 3/21/19 at 12:42 PM

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/21/19 at 12:47pm

Mike Barrett said: "Bebe Neuwirth and Brandon Victor Dixon will announce the nominees on April 30.Id assume on CBS This Morning? Cant believe were just about a month away!"

Usually it's live-streamed online and some of it is shown on NY1? And occasionally CBS airs the Musical/Play/Revival categories.

Don't count out Choir Boy for Best Play. IMHO, that's the third slot after Ferryman and Mockingbird, though I haven't seen everything yet.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/21/19 at 12:53pm

Oh If were talking in terms of deserving, I think Choir Boy should be in there totally. I always felt it didn't have enough buzz, which isn't even really a fair argument haha. Especially with the early mixed reviews with Gary, it'd be amazing if Choir Boy could get that 4th slot! And Jeremy some acting recognition as well! 

[Miles2Go2]

Posted: 3/21/19 at 12:57pm

CoffeeBreak said: "Play

THE FERRYMAN, TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD, INK, HILLARY & CLINTON or LIFESPAN / AMERICAN SON.

GARY isn't worthy of a Tony nom. even with extended opening announce. Julie White nom. and set."

I’d say these are definitely getting nominated:

The Ferryman 

To Kill a Mockingbird

I enjoyed Lifespan of a Fact, but I doubt it’ll get a nomination for best play. Ditto for American Son. 

I think Network might get a nom. And Ink (depending on reception to it once it opens) and Hillary and Clinton. 

If any of these don’t get nominated, I’d think Gary or What The Constitution Means To Me might have a shot,

The Tony still belongs to either The Ferryman or TKAM. 

Bit I have to admit as someone who lives further away (Oklahoma), of the above I’ve only seen:

Lifespan of a Fact

American Son

The Ferryman

Network

 

[Miles2Go2]

Posted: 3/21/19 at 1:12pm

Oh yes, I forgot about Choir Boy. I def think it has a shot. And I forget, will there be 5 nominees if the vote between #4 and #5 is 3 votes or less?

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/21/19 at 1:21pm

I think there will be five nominees regardless, because of the number of eligible shows. (Wasn't that a formal change they made last year?) So if there's a tie in the voting, I imagine we'll see six, not five. And honestly, with the strength of the plays this season, I wouldn't be totally floored if that happened. (Though I think if any category will see extra nominees, it'll be Lead Actor in a Play.)

Rooting for Ferryman to win either way. Mockingbird is clearly a polished production, but wasn't my cup of tea.