94th Oscars: Movie Musical Mania! - News & Discussion Thread- Page 2

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 11:47am

hearthemsing22 said: "On that but for Best Actress, do you think it’s too much to say that Zegler could be nominated? It’s such a tough field…"

It's not too much to say that, but it's just a really, really dense field this year. I think Zegler absolutely has a chance, but right now, she's more of a dark horse than a shoo-in. Of the five slots available, it's apparent at the moment that Kristen Stewart and Olivia Colman are guaranteed to take two of them. Nicole Kidman and Jessica Chastain are strongly favored too, but probably a slight step underneath Stewart and Colman.

The fifth slot is really between Zegler, Lady Gaga, Penelope Cruz, and probably to a lesser extent, Jennifer Hudson. I think Gaga probably nabs it, but we'll see. Zegler could easily swoop in and shock us by taking Kidman's or Chastain's "slot."

SAG nominations come out tomorrow, which will be interesting.

[52889j]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 12:11pm

I would definitely consider West Side Story in the top 3 for best picture. I still think The Power of the Dog has the edge, but a WSS victory wouldn't surprise me.

I would also say that Debose is the frontrunner for Supporting Actress and will pull out even further after she hosts SNL. There's definitely time for someone else to sneak ahead, but I'd bet on her for now.

I'd say Actor is up in the air. Will Smith is a shaky frontrunner, but Garfield and Cumberbatch are absolutely within striking range. All three are great performances, but I'd just love to see Andrew win.

I'd say the 5th Actress spot is between Zegler and three or four other women. 

All of this will become a lot clearer after SAG nominations post.

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 12:51pm

I just looked on Goldderby.com and they have the ranking as follows:

1. Kristen Stewart

2. Olivia Colman

3. Nicole Kidman

4. Jessica Chastain

5. Penelope Cruz

6. Lady Gaga

7. Rachel Zegler

8. Alana Haim

9. Jennifer Hudson

10. Emilia Jones

 

The Academy loves biopics and "Capital A" acting, so I'd love to see Rachel and/or Alana Haim above Gaga. (Frankly, I wasn't that thrilled with Kidman either, but I know she's a shoo-in.)

[SisterGeorge]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 1:14pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: Plus, Best Picture on a preferential ballot needs to be a movie you can plop anyone down in front of and they will get it and enjoy it. .

 Really? Last year's winner "Nomadland" in no way meets this requirement. Not to mention Parasite, Moonlight, The Shape of Water

In the Heigths....sigh. Warner Bros has totally abandoned the campaign for the film. When it failed to make the Sound branches shortlist I knew it was over. This is actual my favorite movie musical of the year. 

Yes! By far my favorite movie musical of the year as well. 



"

 

[Lilly7]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 1:23pm

I wouldn’t count on the SAG bringing much clarity on WSS chances; they reportedly sent out their screeners late. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/12/22 at 10:24am

SAG didn't give West Side Story much love at all this morning. Ariana DeBose secured a nomination in Female Actress in a Supporting Role, but notably absent from the nominations were Rachel Zegler, Rita Moreno, Mike Faist... it also failed to get a nomination for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.

In other movie musical news from the SAG nominations, Andrew Garfield snagged a nomination in Lead Male Actor. (Peter Dinklage did not.)

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 1/12/22 at 11:36am

For the most part, I agreed with the nominations, but Cynthia Erivo and Jennifer Hudson both being nominated for their critically shrugged and commercially ignored Aretha Hudson TV and film biographies is suspect. 

Most egregiously, West Side Story's ensemble being passed over for Don't Look Up's "Good for you for getting all these starts to appear in the same crappy movie" cast nomination is infuriating.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 1/12/22 at 11:37am

Bummed to see West Side Story left off the ensemble list (what a cast, it deserved to be in the mix), but I do think it’s because they didn’t send screeners in time. Accessibility seems to be key for this awards cycle, seeing that so many of these nominees are from streaming films. 

But look at that nomination for Jennifer Hudson. Just when she was counted out, she’s all of a sudden back in the conversation. Yes, I know it was at the expense of Oscar shoo-in Kristen Stewart here, but Hudson also made the BAFTA longlist today. (Rachel Zegler, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Ariana DeBose, and Rita Moreno also all made their respective longlists.)

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 1/12/22 at 4:50pm

SisterGeorge said: "MayAudraBlessYou2 said: Plus, Best Picture on a preferential ballot needs to be a movie you can plop anyone down in front of and they will get it and enjoy it. .

Really? Last year's winner "Nomadland" in no way meets this requirement. Not to mention Parasite, Moonlight, The Shape of Water

I absolutely disagree. Reactions to Nomadland in the industry were through-the-roof. I will say that in any other year it may have had a tough time winning, because it is not the style of filmmaking they usually go for in the top category. But after dealing with the onset of covid, this gentle balm of a film was exactly what people needed. AMPAS voters LOVED this film. They all got it. There's a beautiful simplicity to the movie.

Ditto for the others you mentioned. Shape of Water has a fish creature sure, but it is incredibly straightforward storytelling. There's nothing complicated to it. It's a classic forbidden love story, it's about "outsiders", and it incorporated love of classic movies to boot. Parasite had the "cool factor" to it. And everyone absolutely got it. Not just got it, but said "wow I've never seen this before" and told all their friends they must go see it. Moonlight is perhaps the most daring film they have ever given the BP win to, in terms of style and subject matter. But it swelled in the zeitgeist at just the right time.

 

As for today's SAG nominations:

First off, we should take into account that SAG has become less of a reliable predictor since merging with AFTRA. (Last year, only 2 of the Best Ensemble nominees went on to earn Oscar noms for Best Picture). After all, if a bunch of news anchors or radio hosts end up in the nominating committee...they arent exactly a good barometer of how the industry is thinking. (And the selection of the committee is random and they dont release who is on it). 

The West Side story ensemble miss is noteworthy, but I think they are still firmly one of the three films that can win Best Picture. 

Everyone is shocked at KStew's snub but I nver bought her as the frontrunner and never thought she would win the Oscar. People are tired of Diana stories and the movie is very divisive. Now we have it whittled down to 4 locks: Kidman, Colman, Gaga, and Chastain. Your winner is one of those. Stewart, Zegler, and Hudson will fight over the 5th spot. I'm hoping Zegler can do it (if she was able to give a televised Globe speech I think she would have it in the bag, but alas), and think she might.

DeBose is likely the only acting nominee WSS gets though. I think the category is too competitive for Moreno to get in. She probably needed a bit more material. DeBose has emerged as the Supporting Actress frontrunner, with Balfe and Dunst locked. Negga should be good to go (though as the only viable contender from her film she is vulnerable to a surprise Oscar snub) and I think Aunjanue Ellis can overcome her SAG snub fairly easily.

Garfield seems like the only person who could potentially take Lead Actor away from Will Smith (If Cumberbatch was going to win, Globes would have given it to him as they obviously loved Power of the Dog. Was hoping Dinklage could get in here, but as I said, Cyrano is under-seen and having trouble establishing itself in the race.

And while I would love for Mike Faist to make it, I think he and David Alvarez are cancelling out each other's support (both made the BAFTA long list today). But of all the acting races this one is most fluid. Smitt-McPhee, Kotsur, and Hinds should all get in (Hinds should get BAFTA support and overcome his SAG snub easily). The remaining two slots are totally up in the air. Ben Affleck for a film that otherwise isnt in the race at all? Jared Leto for a ridiculously overacted and frankly terrible showing in Gucci? Jamie Dornan as a second Belfast guy, even though AMPAS hates rewarding handsome young stars and double acting nominations are tough to secure? Bradley Cooper for a 5 minute performance? Two slots could go a bunch of different ways. Im hoping Faist takes a slot, but not predicting him.

 

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 1/12/22 at 9:22pm

In recent years, it looked like SAG nominators were championing diversity in their Ensemble category, sometimes spotlighting lesser-known contenders. Among them: ''Beasts of No Nation'' and ''Straight Outta Compton.'' For 2016, they included ''Fences,'' ''Moonlight'' and ''Hidden Figures,'' which won. For 2018, it was ''Crazy Rich Asians,'' ''BlacKKKlansman'' and ''Black Panther,'' which won. The following year, the South Korean ''Parasite'' won. And last year's SAG Ensemble noms included ''Da 5 Bloods,'' ''Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'' and ''Minari.'' Today's list was less ethnically diverse, with only ''King Richard.''

I'm surprised SAG Ensemble didn't acknowledge that 2021 was poised to be a breakout year for Latino actors. There were two acclaimed Hollywood musicals that put them front and center: ''West Side Story'' (93% rating at Rotten Tomatoes; 94% Audience score) and ''In the Heights'' (94% rating at Rotten Tomatoes; 94% Audience score). Only Ariana DeBose, who's Afro-Latina, has gotten any traction during awards season. Last summer, some pundits predicted Olga Merediz, the grandma in ''In the Heights,'' for the Oscars. And there was hope that all the love for Andrew Garfield in ''tick ... tick ... BOOM!'' would help Robin de Jesus, who played his gay best friend, land a Supporting nomination, but nope!

Updated On: 1/12/22 at 09:22 PM

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 1/31/22 at 7:30pm

Nominations will be announced a week from tomorrow! Any final predictions based on the last couple of weeks?

[Musicnut82]

Posted: 1/31/22 at 9:10pm

Sadly I don’t see WSS wining any Oscars other than for Ariana DeBose.

It is truly heartbreaking to see this given how much the film is loved in the musical world and in this forum but the honest truth is it hasn’t shaken the water hard enough to get the critical recognition it deserves , especially when it has stiff competition from: The Power Of The Dog, Dune, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, King Richard etc. Especially the first two choices cover most media’s and critics predictions of sweeping the awards this year WSS will get the nominations no doubt about it but it’s not strong enough to punch through in that top place for each of the categories apart for support actress. The Power Of The Dog (TPOTD) will easily win Best Picture and Director for Jane Campion. It’s pretty much locked in in those two categories. IMHO Best Director should go to Spielberg. I’ve seen TPOTD and I although I do feel is the better picture it’s not directed as spectacularly as WSS. Still to this day no one frames and moves the camera like Spielberg and in this one he has done some of his best work in a long long time. But I feel the academy in an effort to promote female presence in a male dominant field will push for Jane to get it. 

As far for the technical awards (cinematography, visuals, sound, costumes) most likely will go to Dune. 

[sng]

Posted: 1/31/22 at 11:44pm

They should do a mashup performance on stage like Hugh jackman and Beyonce did in 2009.

[PhumeleleToniJose]

Posted: 2/1/22 at 12:14am

Fifteen films will advance in the Documentary Short Subject category for the 94th Academy Awards.  Eighty-two films qualified in the category.  Members of the Documentary Branch vote to determine the shortlist and the nominees.

The films, listed in alphabetical order by title, are:

“Águilas”
“Audible”
“A Broken House”
“Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis”
“Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker”
“Day of Rage”
“The Facility”
“Lead Me Home”
“Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day””
“The Queen of Basketball”
“Sophie & the Baron”
“Takeover”
“Terror Contagion”
“Three Songs azar for Benazir”
“When We Were Bullies” chatrandom

[TaffyDavenport]

Posted: 2/6/22 at 6:31pm

I know that Lin-Manuel Miranda is pretty much a lock for a Best Original Song nomination for "Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto, but now I'm wondering if the soundtrack's mega-success will improve his chances of winning. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 2/7/22 at 10:56am

Final Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture

*the only five movies who can win BP, stats wise*

1. The Power of the Dog
2. Dune
3. Belfast
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story

*good for nomination, but can't win stats-wise*

6. King Richard
7. Don't Look Up
8.  CODA

*two flexible slots up for grabs. I'm going with:

9. tick, tick...Boom!
10. Being the Ricardos

Alternates who could claim one or both of the last two slots: Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villenueve, Dune
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side story

alt: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (I actually think he takes out Spielberg, I just love WSS too much for me to drop him)

Lead Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
4. Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

alternates: Jennifer Hudson, Respect (I actually know several SAG voters who chose her to win); Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza; Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers; Kristin Stewart, Spencer (this category is NUTS. Prob wrong about Zegler and may switch to Haim or Hudson last second)

Lead Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Andrew Garfield, tick tick...Boom!
4. Denzel Washington, Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

alts: (5th slot is very shaky) Peter Dinklage, Cyrano; Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
5. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

alt: Ruth Negga, Passing; Marlee Matlin, CODA

Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smitt-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

alts: (despite Leto's Razzie nom today I also know several SAG actors who voted for him...choices. In any case, slot 5 is a mystery to me and no one I put there feels right) Jamie Dornan, Belfast; Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog; Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

I think Dune will have the most nominations by a mile, and ultimately walk away with the most wins on Oscar night. But mostly below-the-line. The Power of the Dog seems unchallenged for BP after WSS staggered in the industry portion of the race and Belfast has yet to win a meaningful BP precursor prize. Unless Licorice Pizza has a meteoric rise, its Dog's to lose. Truly bizarre that Netflix looks like they will finally win this year, in a year when the industry has bemoaned the death of movie theaters more than anything.

West Side Story shockingly missed with both the editing guild and cinematographer guild. That sadly puts a major damper on its BP chances. Historically, a movie needs a nomination from DGA to actually win BP at the Oscars. Their nominees were Power of the Dog, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, Dune, West Side Story. So one of those 5 is your ultimate winner.
 

[BritCrit]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 8:48am

Pleased with most of the nominations, but the Oscars decision to snub Ariana Grande and Jay-Z in favour of Diane Warren in the Best Original Song reinforces a lot of the worst stereotypes about the awards - dismissing the popular contemporary artists from well-known films in favour of a women who will NEVER win this category, (no matter how often she gets nominated) who did a song for a film no-one has heard of until now. The positive side effect of this snub is that this may make it easier for Lin-Manuel Miranda to complete his EGOT. I hope that the fact the last two Bond Theme tunes won Best Original Song will count against Billie Eilish...

[BritCrit]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 8:50am

Now I've vented my frustration about one snub, here's the full list of nominees...

 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/2022-oscar-nominations-list-nominees-1235172582/

[TaffyDavenport]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 8:58am

Best Picture

Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem
Benedict Cumberbatch
Andrew Garfield
Will Smith
Denzel Washington

Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain
Olivia Colman
Penelope Cruz
Nicole Kidman
Kristen Stewart

Actor in a Supporting Role

Cirián Hines
Troy Kotsur
Jesse Plemmons
JK Simmons
Kodi Smit-McPhee

Actress in a Supporting Role

Jessie Buckley
Ariana DeBose
Judi Dench
Kirsten Dunst
Aunjanue Ellis

Directing

Kenneth Branagh
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Paul Thomas Anderson
Jane Campion
Steven Spielberg

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World

Documentary Feature

Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire

Animated Feature Film

Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

International Feature Film

Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Yanna (Buhtan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Cinematography

Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of The Dog
The Tragedy
West Side Story

Film Editing

Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!

Live Action Short Film

Ala Kacchu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold

Animated Short Film

Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper

Documentary Short Subject

Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs of Benazir
When We Were Bullies

Music (Original Score)

Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog

Music (Original Song)

Be Alive
Dos Oroguitos
Down to Joy
No Time To Die
Somehow to Do

Production Design

Dune
Nightmare Alley
Power
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Costume Design

Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Makeup and Hairstyling

Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci

Sound

Belfast
Dune
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Visual Effects

Dune
Free Guy
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Updated On: 2/8/22 at 08:58 AM

[bear88]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 9:26am

For West Side Story, it could have been worse. No surprise acting nods but Ariana DeBose is a contender in Best Supporting Actress, with Kirsten Dunst her toughest competition. The movie got Best Director and Best Choreography nominations, which s better than nothing.

I am disappointed Tick… Tick… BOOM! didn’t get a Best Picture nomination. Two nomiinations overall, and whatever chance Garfield had is probably eliminated because the film isn’t a Best Picture candidate.

[theatretenor2]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 9:34am

Tick, Tick...Boom and Denis Villeneuve are the biggest snubs in my opinion. Tick...should've been there instead of Don't Look Up.

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 9:34am

Kind of surprised WSS didn't get nods for best supporting actor and editing.

On the plus side, that HOUSE OF GUCCI mess got snubbed completely. 

[theatretenor2]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 9:35am

bear88 said: "ForWest Side Story, it could have been worse. No surprise acting nods but Ariana DeBose is a contender in Best Supporting Actress, with Kirsten Dunst her toughest competition. The movie got Best Director and Best Choreography nominations, which s better than nothing.

I am disappointedTick… Tick… BOOM! didn’t get a Best Picture nomination. Two nomiinations overall, and whatever chance Garfield had is probably eliminated because the film isn’t a Best Picture candidate."

I don't think he had a chance to win at all. Will Smith is basically a lock for King Richard.

[theatretenor2]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 9:41am

Borstalboy said: "Kind of surprised WSS didn't get nods for best supporting actor and editing.

On the plus side, that HOUSE OF GUCCI mess got snubbed completely."

Deservedly, though I am surprised Gaga wasn't nominated.

[BritCrit]

Posted: 2/8/22 at 9:47am

theatretenor2 said: "Tick, Tick...Boom and Denis Villeneuve are the biggest snubs in my opinion. Tick...should've been there instead of Don't Look Up."

I understand the decision to go with Don't Look Up (I feel like it's a good thing to have a "Message movie" competing in a year defined by smaller, more introspective fare) but it is annoying if you aren't a fan. Tick... Tick... BOOM! was overshadowed by West Side Story as a musical and Belfast as an unconventional coming of age biopic, but it's pretty depressing if this makes it harder for Andrew Garfield. However, as they say in Highlander, The Can Only Be One, so it's not the end of the world if Will Smith gets Best Actor instead. Merely getting nominated is hard enough as it is...