94th Oscars: Movie Musical Mania! - News & Discussion Thread

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 10:54am

This past year delivered a bevvy of movie musicals that hope to be nominated when the Academy announces Oscar nominations on February 8th. What should we expect, with less than a month before nominations are announced? What are your predictions for locks, wins, noms, etc.?

Annette
Cinderella
Cyrano
Dear Evan Hansen
Encanto - animated
Everybody's Talking About Jamie
In The Heights
Respect - biopic
Sing 2 - animated
tick, tick... BOOM!
West Side Story
Vivo - animated

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 11:05am

West Side Story will rack up plenty of nominations on February 8. I'd say it's virtually guaranteed nominations in ten categories: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress for DeBose, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound. Other potential categories it could squeeze into are Lead Actress for Zegler (the chances of which seem stronger than ever now that Zegler is a Golden Globe winner), Supporting Actress for Moreno, and Supporting Actor for Faist.

Right now, I think the strongest chance of a West Side Story win at the Oscars is in the very competitive Supporting Actress race. Ariana DeBose, who won the Golden Globe last night for her performance as Anita, is surging in the race. At the moment, she is poised to take the lead from Kirsten Dunst, who gave a heartbreaking performance in The Power of the Dog. 

Otherwise, I think we'll see only a few nominations for other movie musicals. Peter Dinklage will definitely get nominated in Lead Actor for Cyrano, as will Andrew Garfield for tick, tick... BOOM! (which I think could potentially snag a Picture nomination). Encanto is of course going to be nominated for Animated Feature. Beyond that, I think every other movie musical gets forgotten.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 11:13am

To discuss only nominations:

Cyrano –– Best Actor (long shot)

Encanto –– Best Animated; Best Original Song (long shot)

In The Heights –– SHOULD be considered in Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Director, and Picture, but it seems to have fizzled out with two other major musical contenders in play + poor box office + a studio more focused on Dune and King James.

Respect –– Best Actress (unlikely)

tick, tick... BOOM! –– at least Best Actor, possibly also Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay

West Side Story –– many nominations incl. Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supp Actress, Adapted Screenplay, etc.

 

(I'm never good with "below the line" predix for design and tech categories)

I think everything else is getting shut out entirely.

Some pundits believe WEST SIDE could win Best Picture, considering the Academy's "preferential ballot"...I have a harder time seeing that happen, since there's an air of "we already awarded that in 1962." There's also a chance that it gets two noms for Supp Actress (DeBose and Moreno) + Faist too.

Updated On: 1/10/22 at 11:13 AM

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 11:22am

The only way I see West Side Story winning Best Picture is if Oscar voters split themselves into two evenly divided camps between Belfast and The Power of the Dog and then WSS emerges as triumphant. Personally, I think The Power of the Dog will easily win the top award of the night, but as we all know, stranger things have happened.

A few things I forgot to add to my initial post: first, while I think Spielberg's work in West Side Story is entirely Oscar-worthy, it's feeling like this year's award for Director is Jane Campion's to lose for The Power of the Dog. She seems to be handily the frontrunner in that race (and her work on that film is truly remarkable in its own right).

I'm most curious to see how Best Actress nominations play out. Last night's Golden Globe win for Nicole Kidman over Kristen Stewart was pretty shocking. Right now, it's feeling like Kidman, Stewart, Olivia Colman, and Jessica Chastain are headed toward Oscar nominations, with the final slot up for grabs between Zegler, Lady Gaga, and Penelope Cruz (with Jennifer Hudson, Alana Haim, and Frances McDormand also hovering around the area). Really, really competitive race for nominations in that category.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 11:50am

I want Andrew to win so badly. 

And yes, I think Director is Campion’s to lose right now. She has all the momentum and it’s a bit of a “comeback” story for her, as well. I know it’s blasphemous to say on here right now but I would just love for Dunst to take home the statue for this film. She was remarkable and I feel like she’s been under appreciated her entire career. It would be thrilling to see her getting the Oscar. But I think they will “split the baby” and give the film Director and Picture and acting awards to others. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 11:55am

Jordan Catalano said: "I know it’s blasphemous to say on here right now but I would just love for Dunst to take home the statue for this film. She was remarkable and I feel like she’s been under appreciated her entire career. It would be thrilling to see her getting the Oscar."

I completely agree. I am a massive fan of Spielberg's West Side Story and have been telling everybody I know to go out and see it, but as fantastic as DeBose was, I thought Dunst was absolutely heartbreaking and completely believable in her character's evolution from start to finish. Her frame of mind, her desperation, and her emotional spiral were completely clear and perfectly executed without being overwrought.

If I were an Oscar voter, I'd definitely vote for Dunst. 

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 12:02pm

I think the preferential ballot might actually help West Side Story with voters ranking it high across the board. I do think Jane Campion is the frontrunner for Director, though.

I’d like to throw out a potential surprise nomination for David Alvarez; I’ve seen a few articles about his return to the biz, plus he’s in an Oscar-winning role. If there is a sort of sweep in nominations for WSS, he could be pulled up in it.

Respect may get an Original Song nomination for Carole King and Jennifer Hudson.

I can see tick, tick…BOOM! getting an Editing nomination.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 12:50pm

I agree West Side Story may very well end up taking Best Picture on a preferential ballot, similar to Spotlight a few years ago (which seemed to be hardly anyone's favorite movie, but also hardly anyone's least favorite, so it ended up taking it). Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Don't Look Up, Belfast, CODA, etc. all have plenty of people who love them, but also plenty who seem to hate them. Whereas WSS, even people who don't think it's #1 mostly I think will still rank it in their top 3 or 4. So we shall see.

[SisterGeorge]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 12:53pm

Don't forget "Summer of Soul" for best documentary (I'm guessing a shoo-in to get nominated and win). Not technically a musical, of course, but in my opinion it contains more great music (including some Broadway hits!) and blockbuster performances than any other movie this year. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 1:09pm

I think POWER OF THE DOG is a little too artsy to win Best Picture. It could win Director, Adapted Screenplay, and possibly even Best Actor for Cumberbatch (in an upset over Will Smith), but it feels like BELFAST or WEST SIDE are more in line with Best Picture preferences.

[TaffyDavenport]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 1:20pm

Not a movie musical, but definitely a movie about music that uses 2 classic songs brilliantly, CODA should get a few big nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor), and I'd love to see deaf actor Troy Kotsur win for his performance, although Kodi Smit-McPhee appears to be the frontrunner.

Updated On: 1/10/22 at 01:20 PM

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 1:31pm

Nothing would make me happier than Troy winning this year along with adapted screenplay for CODA.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 1:45pm

CODA is breathtaking. And its star, Emilia Jones, was Young Fiona in SHREK on the West End!

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 1:47pm

I absolutely do not buy Power of the Dog winning Best Picture. There is a huge anti-Netflix bias in the Academy, which will be front and center as the industry frets over this year's disastrous box office. Plus, Best Picture on a preferential ballot needs to be a movie you can plop anyone down in front of and they will get it and enjoy it. The Power of the Dog is decidedly NOT that movie. Belfast is. West Side Story is. Campion seems poised to sweep the season for director, and it may pick up other prizes. But I dont see this academy giving a streaming service their top award right now. I think West Side Story vs. Belfast is the big battle. The Power of the Dog is the critics favorite which dominates early, but will lose when it comes to PGA, SAG, BAFTA, then Oscars.

Back on topic, West Side story is the one musical lock for Best Picture. There are 7 films good to go: West Side Story, Belfast, The Power of the Dog, King Richard, Dune, Licorice Pizza, and CODA. That leaves three slots up for grabs. I'm betting on Tick Tick Boom taking one of them. Mostly on the strength of Garfield's performance (he'll get into Actor) and the film's word of mouth success. It could also show up in Sound and de Jesus is a longshot for Supporting Actor. The other films circling the final slots are Nightmare Alley, Don't Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Spider-Man No Way Home, Drive My Car, Being the Ricardos, and No Time to Die.

Cyrano might get Peter Dinklage into the Lead actor race, but overall I think not enough people have seen this movie. Especially compared to other films in contention. We see the evidence of this as it was left off several of the Oscar shortlists it should have made quite easily. Probably just making it in for Dinklage (and that's iffy), and mayyyybe makeup/hair and costumes.

In the Heigths....sigh. Warner Bros has totally abandoned the campaign for the film. When it failed to make the Sound branches shortlist I knew it was over. This is actual my favorite movie musical of the year. But when it performed poorly at the bo, they shifted awards focus away from it entirely. (Disclosure: I cover some of the awards circuit. I've interviewed folks from In the Heights, and everything is arranged through individual artist's teams...not Warner Bros. Thats never a good sign. So it will sadly be skunked entirely).

Encanto should be able to pick up 3 nominations: Animated Feature, Score, and Song. I think it will win Animated Feature even tho there is strong competition from Luca, Flee, and Mitchells vs the Machines. Those four will all be nominees. Sing 2 could nab the last spot, but I think its much more likely to be Raya and the Last Dragon or Belle.

 

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 2:17pm

That’s really too bad about In the Heights. I thought it was such a fun movie that was mishandled by WB. I’m unsure how Respect did so poorly as well; in a previous year, Jennifer Hudson would be a lock for at least a nomination with Clint Ramos’s costumes winning the Oscar.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 3:17pm

Well RESPECT came out in the summer. It has been forgotten. And it's being handled by MGM/United Artists, which has also been pushing Licorice Pizza, Cyrano, House of Gucci, and James Bond.

Hudson also isn't that good, and the film itself is terrible –– it's almost insulting to Aretha's life and legacy.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 3:58pm

Sounds like a similar situation with ITH regarding release and handling other films (not necessarily about quality). Wonder what would have happened if they would have waited until later in the year or released them in 2020 somehow like they expected. I personally dislike that things released earlier in awards cycles tend to be ignored.

Speaking of, I totally forgot about Dear Evan Hansen.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 4:06pm

Poor Platt probably had his Oscar suit all picked out and ready. But yeah can't imagine DEH getting any Oscar love. 

 

 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 1/10/22 at 4:20pm

The new song Pasek and Paul wrote for the DEH film was shortlisted for the song category....so technically they have a small chance there. But I dont know anybody who thinks it is getting nominated. Probably just made the shortlist due to leftover love for Pasek and Paul after La La Land.

[The Other One]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 4:10am

RippedMan said: "Poor Platt probably had his Oscar suit all picked out and ready. But yeah can't imagine DEH getting any Oscar love."

He could still get a Razzie nomination.  

 

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 8:37am

Power of the Dog is a masterpiece.   

Those doubting its ability to win because it is too arty (gravitas, not obvious, one has to think, etc.), seem to forget another sublime "too arty" movie that was a surprise best pic winner, Moonlight.

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 9:47am

DeBose and Moreno will get nominated, and one of them will win. As good as a Dunst might be, the voters love a good "storyline" and, in the case of DeBose, they love to award Supporting Actress to the "ingenue" of the ballot. West Side Story itself will get a Best Picture nod, as well as for director, cinematography, costume design, editing, sound, best adapted screenplay. Personally I'd love to see a surprise supporting nod for Mike Faist.

Warner Bros seems to want to forget ITH ever happened, even though there is significant quality there, and have set their attention on Dune, which makes sense because it was an incredibly crafted movie, and the actual hit.

Tick Tick Boom came out late in the year and is streaming already, so that'll work very well in its favor. Andrew is a previous nominee and already winning awards, so he's likely frontrunner for a win. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 9:54am

everythingtaboo said: "in the case of DeBose, they love to award Supporting Actress to the "ingenue" of the ballot."

Another very peripheral factor in DeBose's favor is that the Academy has a history of awarding supporting actress roles in movie musicals—Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables (2012), Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls (2006), Catherine Zeta-Jones in Chicago (2002) come to mind.

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 11:38am

ElephantLoveMedley said: "everythingtaboo said: "in the case of DeBose, they love to award Supporting Actress to the "ingenue" of the ballot."

Another very peripheral factor in DeBose's favor is that the Academy has a history of awarding supporting actress roles in movie musicals—Anne Hathaway inLes Misérables(2012), Jennifer Hudson inDreamgirls(2006), Catherine Zeta-Jones inChicago(2002) come to mind."

On that but for Best Actress, do you think it’s too much to say that Zegler could be nominated? It’s such a tough field…

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 11:47am

hearthemsing22 said: "On that but for Best Actress, do you think it’s too much to say that Zegler could be nominated? It’s such a tough field…"

It's not too much to say that, but it's just a really, really dense field this year. I think Zegler absolutely has a chance, but right now, she's more of a dark horse than a shoo-in. Of the five slots available, it's apparent at the moment that Kristen Stewart and Olivia Colman are guaranteed to take two of them. Nicole Kidman and Jessica Chastain are strongly favored too, but probably a slight step underneath Stewart and Colman.

The fifth slot is really between Zegler, Lady Gaga, Penelope Cruz, and probably to a lesser extent, Jennifer Hudson. I think Gaga probably nabs it, but we'll see. Zegler could easily swoop in and shock us by taking Kidman's or Chastain's "slot."

SAG nominations come out tomorrow, which will be interesting.