BEST ACTRESS in a musical PREDICTIONS — Page 2

I really don't see Hadestown in the Leading category here; Amber is squarely supporting, and Eva doesn't do much. She is the "lead" in the traditional sense but she sings sweetly and then disappears. Did Eva get raves elsewhere that I don't know about?

Because it seems to me that Block, O'Hara and Rebecca Jones are locks. The rest are up for grabs; I like Leavel but she also struck me as supporting when compared to the show's protagonist, who I think has a solid chance of being included here.

An odd year. Block feels like the front runner by default, but if the critics receive Oklahoma as I expect them to, I think Jones is a dark horse here.

Updated On: 4/4/19 at 12:40 AM

madz3 said: "I’m curious to see who everyone thinks will win best actress in a musical.

My first pick would be Stephanie J. Block

I saw The Cher Show in January. I was not impressed by the show as the whole, mostly due to the poor writing. With that being said, SJB carried that show on her BACK. Not only did she knock Cher out of the park vocally, she brought an incredibly honest and moving acting performance to what was lackluster writing. I did not think it was possible to cry during that show- but she ALONE did that. Beyond her stellar vocals (which she’s proved time and time again) I was surprised and delighted by the grounded-ness she brought to the role and the story. She made the whole thing worth it. The amount of work she does in this role is insane.

Eva Nobelzada seems to be giving consistently great performances, and although I’ve not seen Hadestown yet (going to soon), I’ve heard her role is not big enough (One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)

I predict Hadestown will win Best Musical, and wonder how this will affect her chances?

Here are my worries with SJB- while I’d like to believe she has it in the bag, The Cher Show will not get nominated for Best Musical- will this affect her chances?

It seems like The Cher Show marketing team is going hard to get her as much exposure as possible- I’m not sure how effective this is as I don’t think any of Cher’s songs taken out of the show really show the massive amount she did with the role! Hopefully the earlier opening date of the show won’t affect voters memory of her performance.

A final note on SJB- she has the whole commodity-musical bias up against her; people are growing tired of the jukebox musical despite how outstanding her performance is. She is an industry favorite however, and many people would say it is her “time” even if that doesn’t hold any legitimate weight. I agree she has CONSISTENTLY given outstanding performances: Falsettos (“I’m Breaking Down&rdquo, Drood, Anything Goes (that tapping!), 9 to 5 (“Get Out and Stay Out&rdquo, etc.

If you’d asked me a month or two ago, I’d have said SJB no question, it seems more tentative now. If you consider everything she’s done to not only NOT do just a campy impression, but also give the role and show life- it dwarfs all the other women we predict will be nominated."

Yeah, there is still the whole industry bias against commodity musicals, which was as evidenced last year when The Band’s Visit knocked down Frozen, Mean Girls, and SpongeBob SquarePants in almost every single category. Plus, it's been almost 19 years since a show that wasn't nominated for Best Musical won an acting prize. That's an important stat we should all keep in mind when making predictions. I will say that the one thing that will end up convincing me to predict Stephanie J. Block for the win is if the New York Times voter poll has her way out front. Then again, if Hadestown does really well on Tony night, I would not be surprised to see Eva Noblezada win in a sweep.

^Actually, The Bridges of Madison County became the first non-Best Musical nominee since Aida to have won Best Original Score. The Wiz was not only nominated for Best Musical in 1975, but it also ended up winning.

There were also several stats that got broken in 2017. Andy Blankenbuehler (Bandstand) became the first choreographer to have won for a show that wasn’t nominated for Best Musical nor Revival since Matthew Bourne (Swan Lake) in 1999. Rebecca Taichman (Indecent) became the first person to have won Best Direction of a Play for a show that didn’t go on to win a top award since Mary Zimmerman (Metamorphoses) in 2002, Christopher Ashley (Come From Away) became the first Best Direction of a Musical winner to have done so likewise since John Doyle (Sweeney Todd) in 2006. The Play That Goes Wrong became the first sole Tony nominee to have pulled off a win since Hollywood Arms in 2003.

Updated On: 4/4/19 at 10:48 AM

Block is this year's Headley!


I know they really liked ''Aida'', even giving them Score, but if Headley was able to beat Mazzie, Luker and Collette. It wont be the fact that Cher Show won't be in BEST MUSICAL that will stop Block, and I still think Cher Show can get a nom before AIN'T TOO PROUD and, especially, BE MORE CHILL.

JDonaghy4 said:
An odd year. Block feels like the front runner by default, but if the critics receive Oklahoma as I expect them to, I think Jones is a dark horse here."

Not by default, but, because she gives a fantastic, tour-de-force performance in an otherwise mediocre show. There are actresses in the past, who have won for less impressive performances. Plus, she can only compete against the competition that is available.

kdogg36 said: "madz3 said: "(One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)"

It's interesting how we all see things through different eyes! I thought Katrina Lenk entirely dominatedThe Band's Visit."

I agree with you, Lenk was the lead of that show.

leighmiserables said: "While I understand the impulse for wanting/expecting Grayto be bumped up into Leading category, I don't see how, practically, that would make any sense. In Act One, Persephone only has one real solo number in "Livin' It Up on Top"(and even then, it's an ensemble song), and in Act Two it's only a bit more with "Our Lady of the Underground", as far as I remember. While I agree she was one of the show-stealers, I just don't think there's enough material there for her for anyone to make a case that she'd fit into the Leading category.

Page,maybe,as he does have significantly more material, but I'd still be surprised."

Persephone also has the "how long" duet in Act 2. I don't think Amber is the lead here, but if Beth Leavel can be ruled as the lead with her three songs, then I don't see why Amber cannot.

woeisme3 said: "Beth Leavel is the second most important character in the show and has her own defined arc, I don’t know how anyone can say that she’s not a lead.

Persephone and Hades, IMO, are both large featured roles. They have more stage time them some of the featured players, but it’s fundamentally Orpheus and Eurydice’s story. I think Noblezada will get nominated- the only person i can really see bumping her is Caitlin Kinnuen if the nominators really love The Prom."



I would put Samantha Barks' chances of a nom ahead of Noblezada's, since that may be the only chance to acknowledge PRETTY WOMAN.

JSquared2 said: "I would put Samantha Barks' chances of a nom ahead of Noblezada's, since that may be the only chance to acknowledge PRETTY WOMAN."

You're assuming they WANT to do that...

bjh2114 said: "JSquared2 said: "I would put Samantha Barks' chances of a nom ahead of Noblezada's, since that may be the only chance to acknowledge PRETTY WOMAN."

You're assuming they WANT to do that..."



Yes, I am. That's why I said it.

Updated On: 4/4/19 at 02:42 PM