BEST ACTRESS in a musical PREDICTIONS

I’m curious to see who everyone thinks will win best actress in a musical.



My first pick would be Stephanie J. Block

I saw the Cher Show in January. I was not impressed by the show as the whole, mostly due to the poor writing. With that being said, SJB carried that show on her BACK. Not only did she knock Cher out of the park vocally, she brought an incredibly honest and moving acting performance to what was lackluster writing. I did not think it was possible to cry during that show- but she ALONE did that. Beyond her stellar vocals (which she’s proved time and time again) I was surprised and delighted by the grounded-ness she brought to the role and the story. She made the whole thing worth it. The amount of work she does in this role is insane.



Although Kelli received some positive reviews it seems unlikely that she’d win again so soon for a role that she is not performing up to par with her most recent (tony-winning) role. I know there has been mixed reviews surrounding her casting/performance as Lili, and I think it’s important that her next win not just be based on her showing up, but really knocking the role out of the park.



Any thoughts on Beth Leavel’s chances? What would make her beat SJB? Her role is not nearly as demanding.. not that this is necessarily the deciding factor.



Eva Nobelzada seems to be giving consistently great performances, and although I’ve not seen Hadestown yet (going to soon), I’ve heard her role is not big enough (One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)

I predict Hadestown will win best musical, and wonder how this will affect her chances?



In terms of Rebecca Naomi Jones, she’s been reported more than once to be the weak link of Oklahoma; I predict a nomination but not much else.



Sophia Anne Caruso is an incredible performer and if you haven’t seen her perform “Life on Mars” from Lazarus, look it up now!!! I don’t think Beetlejuice will fair well though. Perhaps she could take Rebecca’s nomination.



Here are my worries with SJB- while I’d like to believe she has it in the bag, the Cher Show will not get nominated for best musical- will this affect her chances?

It seems like the Cher Show marketing team is going hard to get her as much exposure as possible- I’m not sure how effective this is as I don’t think any of Cher’s songs taken out of the show really show the massive amount she did with the role! Hopefully the earlier opening date of the show won’t affect voters memory of her performance.



A final note on SJB- she has the whole commodity-musical bias up against her; people are growing tired of the jukebox musical despite how outstanding her performance is. She is an industry favorite however, and many people would say it is her “time” even if that doesn’t hold any legitimate weight. I agree she has CONSISTENTLY given outstanding performances: Falsettos (“I’m Breaking Down&rdquo, Drood, Anything Goes (that tapping!), 9 to 5 (“Get Out and Stay Out&rdquo, etc.



If you’d asked me a month or two ago, I’d have said SJB no question, it seems more tentative now. If you consider everything she’s done to not only NOT do just a campy impression, but also give the role and show life- it dwarfs all the other women we predict will be nominated.

I could see Samantha Barks taking a slot if Jones misses out. I think Block, Leavel, and O'Hara are in for sure and Noblezada is probably in. That last one is a bit of a toss-up.

I think Block will finally get her win this year.

I will preface by saying that I love SJB, but I'm curious as to why everyone's so positive that she has this in the bag this year? If it was a Celie/Mama Rose/Diana Goodman type role, then I'd 100% agree, but I feel like so much of her buzz this year is around being deserving based on body of work. She was a great Cher, but the role itself is not the kind of tour-de-force that typically would make someone a shoo-in for the Tony.

FWIW... I do think Cher Show has a shot at a Best Musical nomination if there are five (still unclear about this year's rules). I think it would take the fifth slot, with Ain't Too Proud taking the fourth.

And even though she doesn't seem to be in the conversation, I wouldn't rule out Beth Leavel as a dark horse to take this win. She was absolutely flawless as Dee Dee (and critically reviewed as such), and it seems like a very Tony-friendly kind of role. [Edit, to answer OP's question... I think that The Prom is a much, much stronger overall show than Cher Show, which could be a big factor. Again, I like SJB as a performer quite a bit, but wasn't quite as bowled over by her in Cher Show as others seem to be. I thought it was an excellent performance, but not an OMG SHE NEEDS A TONY FOR THIS performance.]

Overall, I think the five noms are going to be Block, Jones, Leavel, Noblezada, and O'Hara.

Updated On: 4/3/19 at 12:21 PM

LarryD2 said: "It seems like there isn't a huge pool to draw from this year. Aside from the women already mentioned in this thread, is Christiani Pitts (King Kong) the only other eligible potential contender?"

There should be nine total:
Samantha Barks, Pretty Woman
Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show
Sophia Ann Caruso, Beetlejuice
Rebecca Naomi Jones, Oklahoma!
Caitlin Kinnunen, The Prom
Beth Leavel, The Prom
Eva Noblezada, Hadestown
Kelli O’Hara, Kiss Me Kate
Christiani Pitts, King Kong

You know, I reread those rules recently too... but I could've SWORN last year that a bunch of categories were bumped up to five based on the number of eligible contenders in each category, including show (which is why there were five nominees for Play and Play Revival last year).

I make a graphic-heavy ballot every year in InDesign for our Tony party, and I remember it being a PITA last year to make room for all of the extra nominees, plus two more categories of sound design.

Am I hallucinating?? (Genuinely asking, lol. I'm so confused.)

Rogerdellibovi said: "You had me til featured actor. I think the only way that no show wins two is SJB, santino, ali stroker and Patrick Page. Corbin Bleu and George aren’t even locks for nominations."

100% agree on this. At the moment, I'd be surprised if either Bleu or Salazar were nominated. (Wrong thread, but my prediction for that category is Page, de Shields, Vaill, Sykes, and one of the Tootsie guys.)

JudyDenmark said: "You know, I reread those rules recently too... but I could've SWORN last year that a bunch of categories were bumped up to five based on the number of eligible contenders in each category, including show (which is why there were five nominees for Play and Play Revival last year).

I make a graphic-heavy ballot every year in InDesign for our Tony party, and I remember it being a PITA last year to make room for all of the extra nominees, plus two more categories of sound design.

Am I hallucinating?? (Genuinely asking, lol. I'm so confused.)"

At the fourth meeting last year, the Administration Committee did announce that if there were nine eligible candidates, there would be five nominees in a category. We'll see if that carries over. This year, it could lead to a lot of questionable nominations.

I think there is a decent chance that Amber Grey could end up being considered leading (along with Page). But even if she's not, I doubt Eva would get a nomination. The role just isn't a heavy hitter in the way others this season are- and barely featured in the second act, to boot.

If the voters really like The Prom (which I suspect they will), I wouldn't be surprised to see both Beth Leavel and Caitlin Kinnunen (who's really the lead in a lot of ways) get nominated. That could make it the two of them, Block, O'Hara and either Jones or Noblezada.

But I agree that Block seems to have a lock on this, both due to the overdue factor and not having a lot of other competition.

Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show
Rebecca Naomi Jones, Oklahoma!
Beth Leavel, The Prom
Eva Noblezada, Hadestown
Kelli O’Hara, Kiss Me Kate

madz3 said: "(One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)"

It's interesting how we all see things through different eyes! I thought Katrina Lenk entirely dominated The Band's Visit.

I second kdogg36, I think Katrina is the obvious lead in The Band's Visit. I would compare Eve more to Caitlin Kinnunen in The Prom (and Amber to Beth), and with Hadestown potentially winning the best musical, Eve would have a higher chance being nominated than Caitlin.

Even though I think Amber Gray would be nominated as leading, I'm sure the show would want to keep her as featured so she has a higher chance to win.