BEST ACTRESS in a musical PREDICTIONS

Posted: 4/3/19 at 11:44am

I’m curious to see who everyone thinks will win best actress in a musical. 

 

My first pick would be Stephanie J. Block

I saw the Cher Show in January. I was not impressed by the show as the whole, mostly due to the poor writing. With that being said, SJB carried that show on her BACK. Not only did she knock Cher out of the park vocally, she brought an incredibly honest and moving acting performance to what was lackluster writing. I did not think it was possible to cry during that show- but she ALONE did that. Beyond her stellar vocals (which she’s proved time and time again) I was surprised and delighted by the grounded-ness she brought to the role and the story. She made the whole thing worth it. The amount of work she does in this role is insane.

 

Although Kelli received some positive reviews it seems unlikely that she’d win again so soon for a role that she is not performing up to par with her most recent (tony-winning) role. I know there has been mixed reviews surrounding her casting/performance as Lili, and I think it’s important that her next win not just be based on her showing up, but really knocking the role out of the park.

 

Any thoughts on Beth Leavel’s chances? What would make her beat SJB? Her role is not nearly as demanding.. not that this is necessarily the deciding factor.

 

Eva Nobelzada seems to be giving consistently great performances, and although I’ve not seen Hadestown yet (going to soon), I’ve heard her role is not big enough (One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)

I predict Hadestown will win best musical, and wonder how this will affect her chances?

 

In terms of Rebecca Naomi Jones, she’s been reported more than once to be the weak link of Oklahoma; I predict a nomination but not much else.

 

Sophia Anne Caruso is an incredible performer and if you haven’t seen her perform “Life on Mars” from Lazarus, look it up now!!! I don’t think Beetlejuice will fair well though. Perhaps she could take Rebecca’s nomination.

 

Here are my worries with SJB- while I’d like to believe she has it in the bag, the Cher Show will not get nominated for best musical- will this affect her chances? 

It seems like the Cher Show marketing team is going hard to get her as much exposure as possible- I’m not sure how effective this is as I don’t think any of Cher’s songs taken out of the show really show the massive amount she did with the role!  Hopefully the earlier opening date of the show won’t affect voters memory of her performance.

 

A final note on SJB- she has the whole commodity-musical bias up against her; people are growing tired of the jukebox musical despite how outstanding her performance is. She is an industry favorite however, and many people would say it is her “time” even if that doesn’t hold any legitimate weight. I agree she has CONSISTENTLY given outstanding performances: Falsettos (“I’m Breaking Down&rdquo, Drood, Anything Goes (that tapping!), 9 to 5 (“Get Out and Stay Out&rdquo, etc. 

 

If you’d asked me a month or two ago, I’d have said SJB no question, it seems more tentative now.  If you consider everything she’s done to not only NOT do just a campy impression, but also give the role and show life- it dwarfs all the other women we predict will be nominated.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:08pm

SJB. There's not much to discuss: Best Actress is one of the few categories without a "horse race." At this point, SJB is the most obvious win of the season (except for maybe Hadestown for Score). With the other nominees being O'Hara, Noblezada, Leavel, and Jones.

[carolinaguy]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:10pm

I could see Samantha Barks taking a slot if Jones misses out. I think Block, Leavel, and O'Hara are in for sure and Noblezada is probably in. That last one is a bit of a toss-up.

I think Block will finally get her win this year.

[quizking101]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:20pm

Throw me in the column that it’s a lock for Block.

I honestly think all of the musical performance categories will go to different shows. If I had to guess

Best Actress- Block (The Cher Show)

Best Actor - Santino Fontana (Tootsie) or Brooks Ashmanskas (The Prom)

Best Featured Actress - Ali Stroker (Oklahoma) or Amber Gray (Hadestown)

Best Featured Actor - Corbin Bleu (Kiss Me Kate) or George Salazar (Be More Chill)

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:21pm

I will preface by saying that I love SJB, but I'm curious as to why everyone's so positive that she has this in the bag this year? If it was a Celie/Mama Rose/Diana Goodman type role, then I'd 100% agree, but I feel like so much of her buzz this year is around being deserving based on body of work. She was a great Cher, but the role itself is not the kind of tour-de-force that typically would make someone a shoo-in for the Tony. 

FWIW... I do think Cher Show has a shot at a Best Musical nomination if there are five (still unclear about this year's rules). I think it would take the fifth slot, with Ain't Too Proud taking the fourth.

And even though she doesn't seem to be in the conversation, I wouldn't rule out Beth Leavel as a dark horse to take this win. She was absolutely flawless as Dee Dee (and critically reviewed as such), and it seems like a very Tony-friendly kind of role. [Edit, to answer OP's question... I think that The Prom is a much, much stronger overall show than Cher Show, which could be a big factor. Again, I like SJB as a performer quite a bit, but wasn't quite as bowled over by her in Cher Show as others seem to be. I thought it was an excellent performance, but not an OMG SHE NEEDS A TONY FOR THIS performance.]

Overall, I think the five noms are going to be Block, Jones, Leavel, Noblezada, and O'Hara. 

Updated On: 4/3/19 at 12:21 PM

[LarryD2]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:23pm

It seems like there isn't a huge pool to draw from this year. Aside from the women already mentioned in this thread, is Christiani Pitts (King Kong) the only other eligible potential contender?

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:26pm

LarryD2 said: "It seems like there isn't a huge pool to draw from this year. Aside from the women already mentioned in this thread, is Christiani Pitts (King Kong) the only other eligible potential contender?"

There should be nine total:
Samantha Barks, Pretty Woman
Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show
Sophia Ann Caruso, Beetlejuice
Rebecca Naomi Jones, Oklahoma!
Caitlin Kinnunen, The Prom
Beth Leavel, The Prom
Eva Noblezada, Hadestown
Kelli O’Hara, Kiss Me Kate
Christiani Pitts, King Kong

[carolinaguy]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:29pm

JudyDenmark said:

FWIW... I do thinkCher Show has a shot at a Best Musical nomination if there are five (still unclear about this year's rules). I think it would take the fifth slot, with Ain'tToo Proud taking the fourth."

Here is the official rule on nominations from 2017-2018:

Show Categories. The number of nominees in each of the four “Best
Show” categories shall be determined in the following manner:
(A) Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show
category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating
Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible
shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be
collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting
Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will
automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A
fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the
Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between
the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show
is three votes or less.

The only time in recent years where we haven't had four nominees was 2016, when we had five and we can assume Bright Star and School of Rock were the fourth and fifth-place shows and were within three votes of each other. Other than that, we've had four nominees back to 1995, when we only had two because that's all that were eligible.

 

Updated On: 4/3/19 at 12:29 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:34pm

You know, I reread those rules recently too... but I could've SWORN last year that a bunch of categories were bumped up to five based on the number of eligible contenders in each category, including show (which is why there were five nominees for Play and Play Revival last year).

I make a graphic-heavy ballot every year in InDesign for our Tony party, and I remember it being a PITA last year to make room for all of the extra nominees, plus two more categories of sound design.

Am I hallucinating?? (Genuinely asking, lol. I'm so confused.)

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:38pm

quizking101 said: "Throw me in the column that it’s a lock for Block.

I honestly think all of the musical performance categories will go to different shows. If I had to guess

Best Actress- Block (The Cher Show)

Best Actor - Santino Fontana (Tootsie) or Brooks Ashmanskas (The Prom)

Best Featured Actress - Ali Stroker (Oklahoma) or Amber Gray (Hadestown)

Best Featured Actor - Corbin Bleu (Kiss Me Kate) or George Salazar (Be More Chill)"

You had me til featured actor. I think the only way that no show wins two is SJB, santino, ali stroker and Patrick Page. Corbin Bleu and George aren’t even locks for nominations. 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:44pm

Rogerdellibovi said: "You had me til featured actor. I think the only way that no show wins two is SJB, santino, ali stroker and Patrick Page. Corbin Bleu and George aren’t even locks for nominations."

100% agree on this. At the moment, I'd be surprised if either Bleu or Salazar were nominated. (Wrong thread, but my prediction for that category is Page, de Shields, Vaill, Sykes, and one of the Tootsie guys.)

[quizking101]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:45pm

Rogerdellibovi said: "quizking101 said: "Throw me in the column that it’s a lock for Block.

I honestly think all of the musical performance categories will go to different shows. If I had to guess

Best Actress- Block (The Cher Show)

Best Actor - Santino Fontana (Tootsie) or Brooks Ashmanskas (The Prom)

Best Featured Actress - Ali Stroker (Oklahoma) or Amber Gray (Hadestown)

Best Featured Actor - Corbin Bleu (Kiss Me Kate) or George Salazar (Be More Chill)"

You had me til featured actor. I think the only way that no show wins two is SJB, santino, ali stroker and Patrick Page. Corbin Bleu and George aren’t even locks for nominations."

Who would you throw in the Featured Actor column. I’m grasping at straws myself to figure out who could fit in. Page aside, the only other two that come in to play for me are Jarrod Spector for CHER SHOW and either Ephraim Skyes or Derrick Baskin for AIN’T TOO PROUD

[carolinaguy]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:46pm

JudyDenmark said: "You know, I reread those rules recently too... but I could've SWORN last year that a bunch of categories were bumped up to five based on the number of eligible contenders in each category, including show (which is why there were five nominees for Play and Play Revival last year).

I make a graphic-heavy ballot every year in InDesign for our Tony party, and I remember it being a PITA last year to make room for all of the extra nominees, plus two more categories of sound design.

Am I hallucinating?? (Genuinely asking, lol. I'm so confused.)"

At the fourth meeting last year, the Administration Committee did announce that if there were nine eligible candidates, there would be five nominees in a category. We'll see if that carries over. This year, it could lead to a lot of questionable nominations.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 12:58pm

quizking101 “Who would you throw in the Featured Actor column. I’m grasping at straws myself to figure out who could fit in. Page aside, the only other two that come in to play for me are Jarrod Spector for CHER SHOW and either Ephraim Skyes or Derrick Baskin for AIN’T TOO PROUD"

I have to think that Derrick Baskin will be considered as lead. Sykes is definitely in the running (as is Jeremy Pope if we’re talking Ain’t Too Proud), plus Patrick Vaill from Oklahoma and a handful of the Tootsie guys... we’ll see who, if anyone, is called out in the reviews. Edit: +Christopher Sieber, especially if The Prom is shown a lot of love in general. 
 

Updated On: 4/3/19 at 12:58 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 1:14pm

I think there is a decent chance that Amber Grey could end up being considered leading (along with Page). But even if she's not, I doubt Eva would get a nomination. The role just isn't a heavy hitter in the way others this season are- and barely featured in the second act, to boot. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 1:23pm

quizking101 said: "Who would you throw in the Featured Actor column. I’m grasping at straws myself to figure out who could fit in. Page aside, the only other two that come in to play for me are Jarrod Spector for CHER SHOW and either Ephraim Skyes or Derrick Baskin for AIN’T TOO PROUD"


Two for HADESTOWN (Patrick Page and Andre DeShields), Patrick Vaill for Oklahoma!, Corbin Bleu for Kiss Me, Kate. Final slot between Michael Salazar, Jarrod Spector, an Ain't too Proud guy, or maaaaybe James Davis from Oklahoma!

A possible spoiler: is Alex Brightman actually a lead in Beetlejuice? Is there any world in which they put him in Featured? Michael Keaton's role in the film is very much supporting, even though he's the title character.

I can't Page and Gray as leads. They could both win in Featured.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 1:35pm

If the voters really like The Prom (which I suspect they will), I wouldn't be surprised to see both Beth Leavel and Caitlin Kinnunen (who's really the lead in a lot of ways) get nominated.  That could make it the two of them, Block, O'Hara and either Jones or Noblezada.

But I agree that Block seems to have a lock on this, both due to the overdue factor and not having a lot of other competition.

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 1:57pm

quizking101 said: "Rogerdellibovi said: "quizking101 said: "Throw me in the column that it’s a lock for Block.

I honestly think all of the musical performance categories will go to different shows. If I had to guess

Best Actress- Block (The Cher Show)

Best Actor - Santino Fontana (Tootsie) or Brooks Ashmanskas (The Prom)

Best Featured Actress - Ali Stroker (Oklahoma) or Amber Gray (Hadestown)

Best Featured Actor - Corbin Bleu (Kiss Me Kate) or George Salazar (Be More Chill)"

You had me til featured actor. I think the only way that no show wins two is SJB, santino, ali stroker and Patrick Page. Corbin Bleu and George aren’t even locks for nominations."

Who would you throw in the Featured Actor column. I’m grasping at straws myself to figure out who could fit in. Page aside, the only other two that come in to play for me are Jarrod Spector for CHER SHOW and either Ephraim Skyes or Derrick Baskin for AIN’T TOO PROUD"

I have Derrick as leading. I have 

Patrick Page (W)

Christopher Sieber

Ephraim Sykes

Andre de Shields

Patrick Vail

After seeing Hadestown I replaced Corbin Bleu with Andre De Shields. Though I’m not 100% with that one (also considering jarrod and the tootsie men.) I’m surprised by the lack of Chris Sieber love here! I preferred his performance to any of the tootsie men, and he has the added bonus of there being no one else from The Prom that would split his vote. A lot of people are saying the tootsie men but I’m not sure which one would be better than the others to actually get the spot. 

[Robbie2]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 2:13pm

Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show
Rebecca Naomi Jones, Oklahoma!
Beth Leavel, The Prom
Eva Noblezada, Hadestown
Kelli O’Hara, Kiss Me Kate

[bwayobsessed]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 2:35pm

I honestly think people calling Jones the weak link saw a different show than I did. I found her mesmerizing. She made different choices than your average Laurey but I thought it was fantastic.

[kdogg36]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 2:47pm

madz3 said: "(One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)"

It's interesting how we all see things through different eyes! I thought Katrina Lenk entirely dominated The Band's Visit.

[ChildofEarth]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 2:51pm

I'm firmly in camp "SJB has deserved a Tony for years and I wish she wouldn't get it for this," HOWEVER, I will say that the scene before "You Haven't Seen The Last Of Me" in The Cher Show was some of the best acting I've ever seen on stage. She deserves a win just for those few minutes.

HOWEVER, I'm also in camp, "This should be Amber Gray's second Tony nomination" and if she gets into leading, it is a rat race. That said, I don't think she should go there.

[Samanthacq]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 2:54pm

I second kdogg36, I think Katrina is the obvious lead in The Band's Visit. I would compare Eve more to Caitlin Kinnunen in The Prom (and Amber to Beth), and with Hadestown potentially winning the best musical, Eve would have a higher chance being nominated than Caitlin. 

Even though I think Amber Gray would be nominated as leading, I'm sure the show would want to keep her as featured so she has a higher chance to win. 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/3/19 at 6:04pm

quizking101 said: "Who would you throw in the Featured Actor column. I’m grasping at straws myself to figure out who could fit in. Page aside, the only other two that come in to play for me are Jarrod Spector for CHER SHOW and either Ephraim Skyes or Derrick Baskin for AIN’T TOO PROUD"

I would not be surprised to see Reg Rogers and/or Andy Grotelueschen make it in for Tootsie.

[Jk86]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:12am

It would be a shame if Amber Grey isn’t nominated for Leading Actress. She stole Hadestown and it’s an extraordinary piece as it is. I do t think Eva will get a nod at all.

Also, Sophia...she’s super talented but I don’t think Lydia is the role that’s getting her a nod. Just my opinion.