Sutton Ross said: "So, your example is from 11 years ago, Bridges had been running since January of the year (so months longer than the shows he mentioned), and didn't have producers with hugely deeply pockets.Many, many shows ran for months and months because of the producer's deep pockets despite the not amazing grosses. Boop and Real Women Have Curves have extremely wealthy, famousproducers and they are looking to find their audiences. They will hopefully wait longer for these shows to catch on and gain traction, like Maybe Happy Ending did. So, I think some will wait until after the actual awards but understand Jordan (that poster) has been doing this since joining this site. He is always hugely negative and I hope no one takes anything he says about shows closing at face value."
Yes, my example was a Broadway show from 11 years ago. A small show that opened a few months before Tony season ramped that was struggling to sell full price seats and announced its closing 2 days after not getting a Best Musical Nomination.. Just like Redwood possibly could (if Idina is nominated it has a chance to run the summer, if not...?). Is there an expiration on when we can use a show's success or failure on Broadway as an example? Last year, The Heart of Rock and Roll also clearly had a producer with deep pockets who kept the show running through late June after a Tony nomination shut out.. which was great for the cast and crew but terrible for the producers/investors as the grosses never picked up, even with Huey Lewis all over the NYC talk show circuit.
Sure, Boop and Real Women Have Curves are bigger productions with wealthy producers (who hopefully have huge reserves to give their fantastic productions a chance to find their audiences), but the reality is that they have SO FAR struggled to sell full priced tickets. Without a boost from the Tony nominations, they have an even steeper uphill battle, especially in a season with so many shows vying for ticket buyers. Producers with deep pockets will only float their slow for so long. I am hoping both find an audience so I can see them on my annual Theatre trip this fall (was SO happy Suffs and Water for Elephants ran through the end of last year so I could see them both!).. but I have followed the grosses long enough (25+ years at this point), and worked in the industry for 20y until a forced career shift at the pandemic, to realize that there is a higher probability that the 3 shows he mentioned will not be running in October than it is that they will still be open, something I have learned to consider more now that I live on the other side of the country and only have 1 week a year to see everything I can in NYC.
Maybe Happy Ending has succeeded in getting their Average Ticket Price up, but they are still not making the kind of money they will need to quickly make back their $18M investment. Tony recognition (and hopefully MANY wins) will help MHE that. Does anyone expect MHE to announce a closing if it doesn't win the awards many think it will? No. It has established itself as the little show that could this season, it is in a house that isn't the MOST desired by Broadway producers.. it should have a good run, either way. But Boop/Redwood/RWHC all have much steeper roads ahead (well, a tree to climb in Redwoods case..lol).
My point is that no production is going to indicate that there is any blood in the water before the nominations.. and the general ticket buying public generally won't know if a show is struggling to find a full price paying audience until a closing notice is announced.. but those of us commenting on a Broadway grosses thread, some of us who have been following Broadway grosses for decades, can usually see the unfortunate writing on the wall.