Broadway.com Handicaps Tonys

[AndersonTours]

Posted: 4/20/12 at 11:31pm

Broadway.com predicts Tonys - Leading Men in a Musical

http://www.broadway.com/buzz/161305/going-for-2012-tony-gold-handicapping-the-race-for-best-actor-in-a-musical/

[AndersonTours]

Posted: 4/20/12 at 11:40pm

Don't know this website, but here's another bunch of predictions...

http://thecraptacular.com/2012/04/tony-tracker-2012-whos-upwhos-down/

[ACL2006]

Posted: 4/20/12 at 11:45pm

as much as I love Once, Norm Lewis should be a frontrunner over Kazee. My five would be Danny Burstein, Jeremy Jordan, Norm Lewis & Ricky Martin with Steve Kazee getting that last nomination.

[broadwaydevil]

Posted: 4/20/12 at 11:57pm

Are we sure Ricky is being considered leading? I know he's above the title but the producers may petition him down. If he is considered leading I'd be shocked if he was nominated. Raul Esparza has a chance if the critics praise him since the show will probably be panned besides him. Just based on word of mouth, I think Broderick has a decent chance at a nomination as well.

My 5 predictions are: (not necessarily in the order of who I think will win)
1.) Danny Burstein
2.) Steve Kazee
3.) Jeremy Jordan
4.) Norm Lewis
5.) Broderick/Esparza

ETA: Once will likely pick up a lot of nominations. I highly doubt Kazee's spot is in as much jeopardy as you suggest. He's delivering a phenomenal performance in a beautiful role that was almost universally lauded. Milotti may steal a bit of his spotlight but I wouldn't mind if each of them picked up an award.

Updated On: 4/20/12 at 11:57 PM

[EricMontreal22]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 12:25am

Wasn't Mandy in the leading man category for Evita? Surely Che being considered supporting would be ridiculous (though stranger things have happened with nominations). Che is present in the show pretty much on an equal level to Evita. Michael Cerveris seems, considering his reviews, pretty certain for best supporting.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 12:34am

Both Mandy and Bob Gunton were nominated in the Featured Actor category for Evita. Mandy was, however, nominated in the Lead Actor category at the Drama Desk Awards (he lost), while Bob Gunton won in the Featured Actor category.

However, I think Ricky Martin will be nominated in the Leading Actor category.

Updated On: 4/21/12 at 12:34 AM

[broadwaydevil]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 12:36am

No, the opposite is true. Mandy won a Tony in 1980 in the featured actor category. Meaning, there is precedent. I too think Che feels like a leading role but arguments can certainly be made to petition him for the featured category.

I agree Cerveris is a lock for a nomination for featured. Martin is probably unlikely to be nominated in either category.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 1:13am

I think ACL's picks are on the money.
If (and when) LOF tanks the Raul could be the victim.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 2:01am

Just looked at craptaculator... Where do they get those predictions from because I agreed with maybe two of them...

[Mildred Plotka]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 2:06am

Leap opens 5 days before the nominations. If they are going to close shop, they'll surely wait that short period before the nominations. In a dreary season for new musicals, I'm sure they'll pick up a few nominations (Raul, choreography, possibly score) and try to get a post nomination boost.

[willep]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 3:22am

Yeah...those craptacular Ups and Downs are pretty strange.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 4:42am

^It doesnt' even sound as if that blogger has seen most of the shows -- he's basing things off of hearsay, reviews and the Olivier Awards. Oy.


I'm going to assume that Broadway.com has installments on their nom predicitons? I can't imagine they are only doing one category.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 7:26am

They did Best Actress in a Play yesterday:

http://www.broadway.com/buzz/161327/going-for-2012-tony-gold-handicapping-the-race-for-best-actress-in-a-play/

as much as I love Once, Norm Lewis should be a frontrunner over Kazee. My five would be Danny Burstein, Jeremy Jordan, Norm Lewis & Ricky Martin with Steve Kazee getting that last nomination.

ACL, I actually think Kazee may be the favorite to win at this point. I didn't think so as of a few days ago, but I've been hearing some buzz from a few friends who are Tony voters. Whether it has anything to do his mom recently passing, I don't know. But from the sound of things, the voters I know seem to be ready to award his performance. As for Norm, as much as I LOVED him (and I would love to see him win), his reviews were far more mixed than many people in the category.

[Mattbrain]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 7:58am

Actually, the craptacular is run by two women. I hate that blog anyway.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 8:04am

Anyone who thinks Lindsay Mendez is getting nominated for Godspell cannot be taken seriously.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 10:51am

Agreed. And the fact that Ricky Martin is a pretty solid bet on snagging a Tony nod is crazy. He's nowhere near Tony-nomination worthy. But he is a celebrity and we know how Tony loves when stars come to Broadway and don't totally suck.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 10:54am

Ricky Martin is billed first so even if the role is technically supporting, he would be nominated for leading actor (if that were to happen).

[dramamama611]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 10:56am

Unless the producers petition otherwise

[tazber]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 11:07am

Is Elena Roger really in contention for a nomination? I thought she was pretty much panned by the critics.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 11:21am

In terms of best actress, my five are Audra McDonald, Jan Maxwell, Cristin Milioti, Kelli O'Hara & Caissie Levy.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 11:59am

Here are Gold Derby's predictions. 5 are predicting Peters will be nominated and 6 are predicting Roger will be nominated. I cannot take Tom O'Neil seriously, as he is predicting nominations for Peters and Roger over Maxwell!

And our very own Wayman Wong is predicting no nominations for Maxwell, Burstein, or Peters. Lol! K!

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/tony-awards-nominations-nominations/actress-(musical).html

Updated On: 4/21/12 at 11:59 AM

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 12:20pm

When the original production of Evita opened, did the producers have to petition to have LuPone nominated in the Leading Actress category, since everyone was billed below the title? If that was the case, I wonder if they decided to leave Patinkin in Featured, thinking that he wouldn't have won against Jim Dale in the Leading Actor category.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 12:20pm

Sorry, duplicate post.

Updated On: 4/21/12 at 12:20 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 12:25pm

I find it hard to believe that none of those critics see Nina Arianda winning Best Actress in a Play. And that two favor Angela Bassett.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 4/21/12 at 12:38pm

Just wait until Monday when the always entertaining Outer Space Critics Circle nominations are announced. That'll really get people going.