Come Tony season, I think "BREAK A LEG" stands a chance at best musical, but it's got stiff competition from three shows that also opened this week:
"Girl Anachronism," a biomusical about journalist, adventurer and social crusader Nellie Bly, featuring the first mainstream musical score by Amanda F*cking Palmer, with a book co-written by her and husband Neil Gaiman.
"The Cabinet of Doctor Caligari," an ambitious but nearly incomprehensible Fosse/Kander and Ebb pastiche, which is hemorrhaging money nightly due to its insistence on using a full Golden Age orchestra, dancing and singing choruses, and no microphones, synthesizers or amplification. Written by a complete nobody with zero credentials, rumors fly wildly about who is funding this money pit and why.
And most controversial: "Cats, the Musical, The Movie, The Musical." Part Rocky Horror audience experience and part "Shuffle Along," the show recontextualizes both the stage musical, the movie and the behind-the-scenes story of both as a beautiful series of bad ideas. Conceived by, and written by, Theresa Rebeck (Smash) and Glen Berger (Song of Spider-Man). The Tony committee has not yet announced if this counts as a new show or a revival.