Washington was categorized as a lead, so Jackson didn’t get a nomination over him. He did however get the nod over Michael Potts and Ray Fisher who it felt like were acknowledged by many — including the precursors — as giving better performances.
But it’s really not an apt comparison. Potts and Fisher are smaller names than Odenkirk and Burr, and Jackson had better reviews than Culkin. Jackson was generally agreed to be giving a good performance in a thankless role. Culkin’s being called miscast in the show’s plum role. He has a New York Times review that opens saying Richard Roma is one of the greatest characters in theatre before panning his take on the part.
Between his recent industry wins, the strength of the role, and him still earning praise, I’m not ruling out a nomination, but I think he got too many bad reviews for me to actually predict it. I would think Odenkirk and Burr will be ahead of him — love McKean but it’s just not the kind of role that gets in — and I don’t think this production has a strong enough reception to pull off three nominations. For now I think I’ll just stick with a Burr nod. Which feels odd given his role by design shouldn’t be the standout, but he’s the performance I’ve heard the most consistent praise for, and where there’s smoke, there’s fire.