Let's Make Ridiculously Uninformed Tony Predictions: 2010 Edition- Page 2

[binau]

Posted: 10/27/09 at 4:15am

Well, Yes.

But the interview was talking about Seattle try-outs in present context (Hairspray, Shrek, Catch Me If you Can), so it would seem inappropriate for Frank Rich to refer to Washington as "more unsophisticated" than Seattle if he was only talking about the 60s and the strange reception to 'Forum'..(It read more like he was using the older example to support his claim that it was currently unsophisticated, which might make his claim less strong. But still).

I concede that since Ragtime has already had a proven Broadway run it's not like the revival is moving into NY 'blind', but still. If Frank Rich's comment (which I still think is meant to refer to present-day, as it was answered presently and as a response to recent try-outs in Seattle) is true, maybe Ragtime won't gain the rave reviews it did in DC, and might not be the absolute-forerunner for Best Revival.

And if I did have a 'bias', it's a positive one towards the ALNM one, not a negative one towards Ragtime, which I do enjoy from the few times I've listened to the cast recording I picked up recently. That is, I'm not trying to have an anti-ragtime vendetta or anything.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 10/27/09 at 4:19pm

I don't think Spiderman will open in time to qualify for the the 2010 Tonys. Plus I'm hoping Sondheim on Sondheim is eligible for Best New Musical. And I'm not going to count American Idiot or any other new musicals until they are officially announced.

BEST NEW MUSICAL
The Addams Family*
Fela!
Memphis
Sondheim on Sondheim

BEST NEW PLAY
A Behanding in Spokane*
Next Fall
Race
Superior Donuts

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
Ragtime*
Promises, Promises
La Cage aux Folles
A Little Night Music

BEST PLAY REVIVAL
A View From The Bridge*
Collected Stories
The Neil Simon Plays
Oleanna

[jennafan]

Posted: 10/27/09 at 4:39pm

Ok, if SONDHEIM ON SONDHEIM is going to have video footage does it still qualify? My guess is at least 20-30 minutes of the musical will be video footage and the rest will be singing?

Heck, I don't even know if there is a storyline with character names.

Updated On: 10/27/09 at 04:39 PM

[wickedfan]

Posted: 10/27/09 at 4:42pm

In an old interview, or review, I can't remember which, Frank Rich said that the West End was always "mystified" by the American musical and rarely revived it well, but most critics there raved about the productions, anyway, and more often than not, the production never lived up to the hype here (he lists the National's '80's production of Guys and Dolls as a main example). That could very well be the case with this Night Music revival, I certainly have my hopes up simply because of the cast. But I saw this revival back at the Chocolate Factory and I can tell you now that the production I saw then would in no way be the Tony front runner.

[Basely Tearful]

Posted: 10/27/09 at 4:52pm

There's really no rule disqualifying Sondheim on Sondheim for using video footage. I can't imagine it's going to take up the majority of the evening (and who knows if there will be staging during this). As far as plot: there's no rule saying a new musical needs a plot to be eligible. There's no revue category (and the special event category is toast).

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 9:49pm

Updates, y'all!

Best Musical:
The Addams Family
American Idiot**
Fela!
Memphis
CHANGES: Spider-Man eliminated, since it may not open in time for the cutoff. Replaced by Memphis, which is basically a placeholder until a better show gets announced.

Best Musical Revival:
A Little Night Music
La Cage Aux Folles
Promises, Promises
Ragtime**

Best Actor:
John Gallagher Jr., American Idiot
Douglas Hodge, La Cage Aux Folles**
Sean Hayes, Promises, Promises
Nathan Lane, The Addams Family
Saur Ngaujah, Fela!

Best Actress:
Kristen Chenoweth, Promises, Promises**
Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music
Bebe Neuwirth, The Addams Family
Christiane Noll, Ragtime
Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music
CHANGES: Wood eliminated, replaced by Chenoweth (probable winner).

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Quentin Earl Darrington, Ragtime
Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian's Rainbow
Alexander Hanson, A Little Night Music**
Terrence Mann, Kevin Chamberlin or Zachary James, The Addams Family
Tony Vincent, American Idiot
CHANGES: Cumming, Petkoff eliminated due to show postponement and lack of strong notices, respectively. Replaced by three possibilities from Broadway's strangest family (although most likely Mann, who has a song about being raped by a squid - I smell a Tony for that alone), and Darrington, who has a flashier role than Petkoff.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Barbara Cook, Sondheim on Sondheim**
Jane Houdyshell, Bye Bye Birdie
Rebecca Naomi Jones, American Idiot
Leigh Ann Larkin, A Little Night Music
Stephanie Umoh, Ragtime
CHANGES: White eliminated because even the Big Black Lady effect won't keep voters from forgetting her by next June, replaced with Houdyshell, who will be swept in because she is the standout, stage veteran performer in a Roundabout cast full of forgettable and/or atrocious leads (aka the Martha Plimpton effect). Larkin replaces Davie based on advance word. But remember, none of us knows f***ing anything.

[binau]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 9:59pm

I find it strange that Lansbury is in for "Best actress" with CZJ but Hanson is only featured actor. (It should be Lansbury featured and Hanson actor)

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:03pm

COME FLY WITH ME will be nominated for Best Musical I bet. Over what show though, who knows...

This is kinda a boring season when you think about it/look at these predictions...blah.

[Kad]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:04pm

Unless Come Fly With Me goes the way of The Times They Are A-Changin'.

[Smaxie]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:07pm

Except Come Fly with Me already has an Isherwood rave.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:09pm

Based on Isherwood's review, I doubt that it will.
( http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/26/theater/reviews/26fly.html )

But it's possible I guess.

[Shakeshafte]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:14pm

Just what I've seen, and from what I might see ahead:


Best Musical Revival:
A Little Night Music
La Cage Aux Folles
Promises, Promises
Ragtime

Best Actor:
John Gallagher Jr., American Idiot
Douglas Hodge, La Cage Aux Folles
Sean Hayes, Promises, Promises
Nathan Lane, The Addams Family
Jim Norton, Finians Rainbow

Best Actress:
Kristen Chenoweth, Promises, Promises
Bebe Neuwirth, The Addams Family
Christiane Noll, Ragtime
Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music
Kate Baldwin, Finians Rainbow

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Bobby Steggart, Ragtime
Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian's Rainbow
Alexander Hanson, A Little Night Music
Robert Petkoff, Ragtime


Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Barbara Cook, Sondheim on Sondheim
Erin Davie, A Little Night Music
Rebecca Naomi Jones, American Idiot
Stephanie Umoh, Ragtime

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:15pm

Alexander Hanson will be eligible in the lead category. He has the largest role in the musical.

And you don't think Angela Lansbury will be nominated?????

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:17pm

I don't think it'll win, but I think that since Finian's Rainbow has been the best reviewed revival of the season...it'll at least be nominated.

[vodkastinger]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 10:55pm

Best Musical
The Addams Family**
Come Fly With Me
Fela!
Memphis

Best Play
A Behanding in Spokane**
Enron
Next Fall
Race

Musical Revival
Finian's Rainbow
La Cage Aux Folles**
A Little Night Music
Ragtime

Play Revival
A View From The Bridge
Collected Stories
Fences
The Miracle Worker**

Actor--Musical
Nathan Lane, The Addams Family
Sahr Ngaujah, Fela!
Douglas Hodge, La Cage Aux Folles
Kelsey Grammar, La Cage Aux Folles**
Chad Kimball, Memphis

Actress--Musical
Bebe Neuwirth, The Addams Family
Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music**
Montego Glover, Memphis
Kristin Chenoweth, Promises Promises
Christiane Noll, Ragtime

Actor--Play
Christopher Walken, A Behanding in Spokane
Denzel Washington, Fences**
_____, Next Fall
James Spader, Race
Liev Schrieber, A View From The Bridge

Actress--Play
Scarlett Johansson, A View From The Bridge
_____, Fences
Allison Pill, The Miracle Worker**
Laura Linney, Time Stands Still
Carrie Fisher, Wishful Drinking

Featured Actor--Musical
Kevin Chamberlin, The Addams Family
Terrence Mann, The Addams Family**
Jim Norton, Finian's Rainbow
Aaron Lazar, A Little Night Music
Robert Petkoff, Ragtime

Featured Actress--Musical
Carollee Carmello, The Addams Family
Jackie Hoffman, The Addams Family
Lillias White, Fela!
Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music**
Barbara Cook, Sondheim on Sondheim

Featured Actor--Play
Sam Rockwell, A Behanding in Spokane**
____, Enron
____, Fences
Richard Thomas, Race
Brian D'Arcy James, Time Stands Still

Featured Actress--Play
Zoe Kazan, A Behanding in Spokane**
Abigail Breslin, The Miracle Worker
____, Next Fall
Kerry Washington, Race
Rosemary Harris, The Royal Family

EDIT: Completely forgot about Fences the first time around. Updated On: 12/1/09 at 10:55 PM

[ACL2006]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 11:41pm

The Best Musical revival nominations comes down to how good or bad Promises, Promises is. I still say Ragtime wins regardless.

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/1/09 at 11:51pm

"I still say Ragtime wins regardless."

- Do you think it will still win even if it's closed?

[brdwybum]

Posted: 12/3/09 at 1:21am

Get most of the changes... But Larkin? Really? NO way. Davie would hands down get a nom before Larkin. Saw the show and was unimpressed with her performance. She does slutty well but thats not what Petra should be. There is no color through Millers son, it's one note slutty. NOt gonna happen.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 12/3/09 at 1:26am

I'm thinking LA CAGE will win Best Revival. And Actor (Hodge).

And I hope Patrick Breen and some of the other cast members of NEXT FALL get some awards attention. They're all absolutely fantastic...I just can't wait to see this show again!

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 12/3/09 at 2:25am

Did I miss something? Are Barbara Cook and Vanessa Williams going to be dropped down to Featured Actress in a Musical? Well, Angela Lansbury certainly will as I'm sure they will not want any competition between Angela Lansbury and Catherine Zeta-Jones and because they both have legitimate shots to win.

~Steven

[jagfkb]

Posted: 12/5/09 at 7:07pm

I'm not entirely sure why everyone is predicting Sondheim on Sondheim to be such a big deal. It's ANOTHER Sondheim revue, SO WHAT? I predict a few acting nods for Cook and Williams, but Best Musical? Really? Anyway, here are my predictions: Predicted Winner- *
Personal Choice- #

Best Musical:
The Addams Family#(* if Fela closes)
Fela*(If it can stay open)
Come Fly With Me(Unless American Idiot transfers)
Memphis (Like it or not, unless it closes, it's going to be nominated)

Best Revival: (Remember 2008?)
Ragtime#* (South Pacific)
La Cage Aux Folles (Sunday in the Park with George)
A Little Night Music (Gypsy)
Promises, Promises (The only other revival that will be open by then, and I don't expect much from this one... I dare them to prove me wrong)

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/5/09 at 7:16pm

I can't see Memphis getting a nod over Sondheim on Sondheim. But we have yet to see SoS.

[vodkastinger]

Posted: 12/5/09 at 10:23pm

Don't forget that the Tonys are business calculations as much as merits of artistic achivement. Whether or not it's your cup of tea, "Memphis" could tour the country and do well, "Sondheim on Sondheim" will not. Honestly, if "Memphis" hangs on business wise, I think it's a contender to win. It's reviews were very similar to "Jersey Boys" and "Wicked".

[Fanb]

Posted: 12/5/09 at 11:15pm

Best Musical:
The Addams Family
Fela!
American Idiot
Come Fly With Me
Sondheim on Sondheim

[ljay889]

Posted: 12/5/09 at 11:16pm

There can only be 4 Best Musical nominees.