Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread — Page 11

If Haydn Gwynne doesn't win (I think she will), Karen Olivo will probably take the award. Block will be happy with a nomination.

As for Tveit, I thought his performance was stronger than anyone's in his category except perhaps Will Swenson, who may just end up winning. Jbara, in my opinion, was wildly overrated in Billy Elliot (standing around looking bereft for three hours does not a good performance make). Seiber was extremely one note throughout. I don't see 9 to 5 until Saturday, so I won't say anything about Kudisch until afterwards.

Whose seriously in the running for featured actor, this year??
I hoping for Mackenzie Crook as Konstantin in the Seagull, I thought that whole production was amazing and especially his last scene with Nina (Carey Mulligan has to get a nom...), really stays with you, I think, heartbreaking stuff.

This year I've seen (play-wise) Equus, The Seagull, Exit the King and Impressionism, so I can only comment on those really. With Equus, I hear that Radcliffe and Griffiths are both considered leads and I'm sure Impressionism is out of contention really. Maybe some of the supporting men from King though, William Sadler was quite fun to watch as the doctor/executioner.

Guaranteed the 9 to 5 producers only petition Janney as leading actress. That's the only chance they'll have of beating Ripley (which won't happen anyway).

Josefina Scaglione was stunning in West Side Story but I don't think she is a possible winner. I would LOVE to see Megan Hilty take home a Tony award!!!!!

"Stephanie really runs miles around Karen in acting, singing, and especially dancing."

Once again you haven't seen Karen. You can't say Stephanie is a stronger singer. They may be equal, Karen's voice is definitely her strongest point and her acting is incredible as well. I wouldn't be so confident about Stephanie.

I am biased toward Karen but I have seen Karen and Stephanie and Hadyn and I would give it to Karen hands down.

Do people really think, if the 9 to 5 producers petition to have only Janney in the leading category, that the Tony Committee will really go for it? The three women all have equal billing, about equal stage time and they take the final bow together. If Janney had a significantly larger role, or had the final bow to herself, I could see an argument being made - but the producers seem to be making every effort to keep their leading ladies equal.

Anyway, even if they do petition for only Janney to be considered a Lead, that doesn't mean the Tony people will automatically agree.

I've avoided getting into this thus far because I thought it was too early. I still haven't seen everything yet, but, so far, my sense of it is:

Best Play: God of Carnage (winner); reasons to be pretty; Dividing the Estate; and 39 Variations (as a place holder).
Best Musical: Billy Elliot (winner); 9 to 5; Shrek; and Next to Normal. I wouldn't die of shock if [title of show] got a nod.
Best Play Revival (tough one): Desire Under the Elms (winner); The Seagull (very close); Mary Stuart; and Speed-the-Plow. This will be a very close call -- All My Sons, Exit the King, Joe Turner, Waiting for Godot (although I doubt it), and Norman Conquests all stand a chance of getting a nod.
Best Musical Revival: Hair (winner); West Side Story; Guys and Dolls (place holder); and Pal Joey (another place holder).

I'm waiting to see the others before predicting any of the individual performances. To date and being strictly subjective here, my favorite individual performances have been Geoffrey Rush, John Lithgow, David Alvarez, Raul Esparza, Angela Lansbury, Rupert Everett and Will Swenson. Except for Angela, none of the female performances have knocked me out (and yes, that includes The Seagull), but I'm sure that's going to change with Mary Stuart and Desire Under the Elms.

Just my thoughts.

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Updated On: 4/14/09 at 03:44 PM

Well yes, but her role is clearly supporting in relation to Rupert Everett and Jayne Atkinson. It's the combination of factors, not just the curtain call.

ewwwww.

Why would he be put as featured?

I think Radcliffe will be EQUUS' only nomination. And he'll most surely get a Best Actor nod; not Featured.

Raul for best actor in a play for Speed-the-Plow.

Esparza will be going home empty-handed again this year. Don't worry - he has a long career and many, many Tonys ahead of him.

Rush has this one in the bag. I haven't seen many of the plays yet, but solely based on reviews we can safely say that Lansbury and Rush are locks in their respective categories.

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