Altar Boyz, according to its producer, hasn't paid back a dime of its capitalization so far. It constantly hovers around break even, making a few thousand one week and then losing a few thousand the next. It can run for a while like that, but at this rate it'll never recoup and end up as a flop whenever it finally closes.
I Love You, You're Perfect has a cast of 4 and one musician, so it costs nothing to run which is why it has lasted for years.
Tony N Tina is basically glorified dinner theatre (with a top ticket price of $125 for food and the show) and as such has a completely different financial model than regular Off-Broadway shows.
Jewtopia recouped and it has a cast of 6 and no musicians.
Spring Awakening has a cast of 14, plus understudies, plus 4 musicians. Simply put, you can't turn a profit with a show that large anymore, so Broadway is your only option (even if your show really doesn't belong in a Broadway-sized house).
Out of the hundreds of shows that have opened in commercial off-Broadway in the past 5 years or so, fewer than 10 turned a profit (including shows like Orson's Shadow that ran nearly a year). The handful that did all had tiny casts, good reviews, great audience appeal and word of mouth and somehow just got lucky,
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney