This season's musical revivals...

This is a crazy and exciting season for musical revivals. As of now we know of 6 revivals that have started or will open this season.

Bye Bye Birdie
Finian's Rainbow
A Little Night Music
La Cage Aux Folles
Promises, Promises
Ragtime

I know this is very premature, but I want to know what two musicals you all predict will be snubbed/not nominated?

I say the nominees will be

A Little Night Music
La Cage Aux Folles
Promises, Promises
Ragtime

Unless Promises is a COMPLETE disaster, Finian could possibly take its place. All of these productions besides Promises have been seen, Night Music and La Cage are coming with positive buzz from London.

So just curious, what two musicals do you think will not be nominated? I know it's way too early, but it's interesting to discuss.

Updated On: 10/26/09 at 02:03 PM

RAGTIME is absolutely beautiful, but I think NIGHT MUSIC is also a strong contender.

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The award for musical revival really adds little to the box office. It's nice if you win it and fun to speculate in a competitive year like this one, but it doesn't have the same cachet as Best Musical, Best Play, Best Actor or Actress.

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I don't think it's really fair to call frontrunners until all productions are opened. I just wanted to speculate about which 2 shows could possibly be snubbed.

Let's not forget Brantley hated the original production of Ragtime, but he did enjoy Night Music in London. And I'm sure both productions are relying on a positive review from him, especially Ragtime, which apparently has a low advance.

Updated On: 10/26/09 at 02:28 PM

But the actual production HAS been seen. I doubt CZJ and Lansbury will be disasters.

Updated On: 10/26/09 at 02:32 PM

I am probably in the minority, but I disliked both of the original productions of PROMISES, PROMISES and RAGTIME. The former has a weak score IMO except for "I'll Never Fall In Love Again". I actually found the show boring. The use of a trio of singers in the orchestra pit along with the orchestra was a bad idea to me. With regard to RAGTIME, I just think that they tried to cram too much history into one musical. And the sound system at the Hilton was so bad that even Audra McDonald sounded harsh. It was a disappointing evening for me.

I am looking forward to seeing FINIAN'S RAINBOW in December. The vibes from most posters on this Board are really good. And I love the score. Whether it is nominated for a Tony simply doesn't interest me. Each to his own.

For the most part, I prefer the shows from the Golden Age to most of today's shows. That's why I like revivals. However, I am planning on seeing BILLY ELLIOT in May because of the overwhelming positive response it has gotten.

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Promises, Promises will get nominated over Finian's because of its two stars but I can't see it contending with Ragtime, ALNM or La Cage for the Tony.

Plus South Pacific(200 & Hair(2009) broke the curse of the best musical revival win by becoming the first shows since 42nd Street(2001) to see a respectful box office boost afterwards and not close immediately(Into The Woods, Nine, Assassins, La Cage, The Pajama Game & Company all ran for less than a year).

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...actually this production of RAGTIME is the same one that played in Washington DC. It was raved and raved and raved...

Desire Under the Elms was raved in Chicago as well, though not by me, I admit. Doesn't mean it translates well to NYC audiences and/or critics. I really love the score to Ragtime, but I didn't care for the original production at all. The score and cast were sublime, but I hated pretty much everything else about it.

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A Little Night Music
La Cage Aux Folles
Promises, Promises
Ragtime

Birdie has no shot in hell, and I sincerely doubt Finian's will still be running, not to say thats the only factor, but I fall into the camp that believe that Hayes and Chenoweth will carry Promises to some nominations.

The other three productions are the definitions of locks.

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