Although I do agree that the most likely scenario for Best Musical noms is Hamilton, Shuffle, Waitress and School of Rock, I am surprised (and admittedly a bit bummed) that On Your Feet isn't in the conversation a little more. If you look at the reviews, I believe it should be in the conversation. According to BroadwayWorld's review aggregate and show-score.com's aggregate, the far and away best reviewed new musical this year was of course Hamilton (9.7 & 94) followed by a clear second place for Shuffle Along (8.0 & 82).
Then things get super-murky. Waitress (7.7 & 75), On Your Feet (7.6 & 75) and School of Rock (7.6 & 74) are all basically in the same place.
American Psycho (7.2 & 62) and Bright Star (6.7 & 66) are both significantly below those other 5.
So if the nominators opinions line up with critics' opinions (which I know they don't always do), then perhaps On Your Feet has a little more of a chance than most are assuming??? On Your Feet also got more nominations (7) than either School of Rock and Waitress from the OCC, but then got completely shut out from the Drama Desks...so who knows...
Personally, I'd love to see a line-up of Hamilton, Shuffle Along, Waitress and On Your Feet. What a diverse group in both form (1 jukebox musical, 1 movie-to-musical adaptation, 1 hip-hop musical, and 1 creative educational piece) and racial diversity (1 written by and about Cuban-Americans, 1 written by and about performers of color, 1 written by and about women-which is sad that that is so unique and diverse, and 1 written by and about a plethora of American minorities)
Any way, just some thoughts...