Tony's 2025 - who will be this year's The Great Gatsby?

By "this year's The Great Gatsby," do you mean what show will be shut out, or be shut out but still successful?

Regardless- I suspect Smash will be either over-represented at the awards or largely shut out, with little middle ground.

Updated On: 4/17/25 at 04:01 PM

I don't expect the following shows will receive any nominations:

• Home
• The Roommate
• Left On Tenth
• Romeo + Juliet
• Tammy Faye
• Elf
• The Last 5 Years

Some shows might only receive 1-3 noms in lower-level categories:

• Swept Away
• A Wonderful World
• Redwood

Then there's the gray area:

• Cult of Love gets a Best Play nom and maybe a Scenic nom, or it gets zero noms.
• The two biggest hits of the spring -- Othello and GN&GL -- could get 0 noms. Or both could be in the respective Revival & Play categories and noms across other categories.
• Smash could get virtually nothing, or it could overperform. A lot of Stro Shows have overperformed with nominations even when critically disliked.
• Real Women Have Curves?

There will be plenty of shows that don't get nominations. I'm currently predicting 0 nominations for the following shows:
- All In
- Elf
- Home
- JOB
- The Last Five Years
- Left on Tenth
- Once Upon a Mattress
- Romeo + Juliet
- Tammy Faye

There's several more I expect to only get a couple below the line nominations.

Interesting, I definitely think Mia Farrow gets in for The Roommate. It was an affecting performance from a legendary actor with lots of moments that still stand out months later.

And I do think Kit Connor, while certainly not guaranteed, has good odds at breaking in for Romeo + Juliet. I mean...he certainly did a way better job than Denzel in another Shakespeare production, or Clooney in a part that doesn't offer him much. Lead actor feels super fluid since Cole Escola is the only one who feels like a lock.

Other assumed "0 nom" shows could get design nominations that aren't always top of mind. For instance, I think JOB has a great shot at sound design. And while I thought The Last Five Years was dreadful, I could see it sneaking into lighting design. 

I think I'm more interested in this Gatsby parallel: which show could actually WIN on its ONLY nomination?

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Interesting, I definitely think Mia Farrow gets in for The Roommate. It was an affecting performance from a legendary actor with lots of moments that still stand out months later.

And I do think Kit Connor, while certainly not guaranteed, has good odds at breaking in for Romeo + Juliet. I mean...he certainly did a way better job than Denzel in another Shakespeare production, or Clooney in a part that doesn't offer him much. Lead actor feels super fluid since Cole Escola is the only one who feels like a lock.

Other assumed "0 nom" shows could get design nominations that aren't always top of mind. For instance, I think JOB has a great shot at sound design. And while I thought The Last Five Years was dreadful, I could see it sneaking into lighting design.

I think I'm more interested in this Gatsby parallel: which show could actually WIN on its ONLY nomination?"

I do think Mia Farrow will get in. I see the argument for Kit Connor but I still think that production will get blanked. If it gets anything, it will be Kit though. I agree JOB could get in for Sound but I don't currently have it predicted. Don't see Last Five Years getting in for lighting or anything.

I'd be surprised if any show wins its only nomination. That was very unusual last year. I didn't want to take the time to look but I can't imagine that's happened many times in Tonys history.

DramaTeach said: "I also anticipate RDJ and all of McNeal to be ignored."

I completely forgot about that show.

Joining the chorus of voices hoping that Kit Connor is recognized. He was excellent, shockingly better than a lot of the big names treading the boards at the moment.

If by GATSBY, you mean a show that was overall ignored at awards with mixed to negative reviews that became a hit, I’m not sure what that show would be. I’d say SMASH if it didn’t get the rave from the Times. My concern now is that DEATH BECOMES HER is gonna get the LEGALLY BLONDE treatment, where it is nominated for a ton of major awards but misses the Best Musical slot to SMASH a la CURTAINS. That would be insane to me but perhaps not to others.