Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 27

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/21/19 at 3:59pm

There is no science to this. Not only is it subjective, but it is totally case by case. Being above the title, playing one of the title characters, and having a lot of stage time does not NECESSARILY mean that a character is unequivocally leading. And just because another role is smaller doesn’t mean the larger role isn’t still supporting. And vice versa to all of that! Because there will always be exceptions to all of these guidelines. Personally, I think Lithgow’s role could really go either way. At the end of the day, the key thing is whether the character FEELS supporting or whether it FEELS leading. And obviously, that varies from person to person, especially in cases like this.

They would be smart to put him in featured based on the competition.

Also, I think this is a good example of why the category SHOULD be called “supporting” instead of “featured.” Because “featured” makes it sound like a very small role, while “supporting” can cover a much wider range of roles. And historically, people with very large, meaty roles have competed in these non-leading categories.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/21/19 at 4:09pm

IntoTheWords said: "Compare Clinton’s role to Obama’s role in the play and realize the glaring difference between lead and featured. "

The Barack character is a cameo. But the Featured category is always tricky with the sizes of roles.

It’s totally valid that Lith goes to Featured. To me, this felt like HILLARY’s story, and Bill was just one part of that; he’s basically her antagonist here. Even when he was onstage, his actions (and silence) were often in service of her narrative. He’s also deliberately billed second: L comes before M yet she gets top billing, and Lithgow is arguably more famous than Metcalf.

There may be no “right” answer. In Fences, Mary Alice won the Tony for Featured, while Viola Davis won the Tony for Lead and the Oscar for Featured. In Annie, Dorothy Loudon won Lead but Katie Finneran was eligible in Featured. George Rose won the Lead Actor Tony for playing Alfie Doolittle in MFL, unquestionably a Featured role.

Updated On: 4/21/19 at 04:09 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/22/19 at 10:21am

52889j said: "ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Lots of thoughts all at once:

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Scott Rudin always gets a lot of noms, but this year he’ll likely be responsible for the ENTIRE category (7 possibilities: Celia, Julie White, Joan Allen, Ruth Wilson, LaTanya, Erin Wilhelmina, Elizabeth Marvel). I can’t think of others who could crack that list?
"

I would hope Mercedes Ruehl."

And the Ferryman women. I could easily see Fionnula Flanagan and/or Dearbhla Molloy getting nominated.

 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/22/19 at 10:54am

Now if it were up to me, I’d nominate that little girl who goes “Nine kids! F*** me blue!”

Posted: 4/24/19 at 9:38am

Not disagreeing by any means, but the same could be said for Celia in Mockingbird. She’s got more stage time than Atticus.

[Hot Pants]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 3:13am

Current acting predictions

Actor in a musical: Santino Fontana (A very easy win. People love his performance, and none of his competitors have gotten anywhere near as much hype. The only way I can see someone else standing a chance is if Hadestown frauds Page or De Shields into lead)

Actress in a musical: Stephanie J Block (For awhile I didn’t think that she’d win, and while I’ve changed that thought, I still don’t think she’s a strong front runner at all. While she’s been agreed on a test best part of a lackluster show, most people predicting her admit that her status as front runner comes from love of her career rather than her performance. The reason why I changed to predicting her is because it’s now clear that the other potential contenders don’t seem to have enough support, so as of now, I think Block will win)

Actor in a play: Jeff Daniels (Daniels is a beloved actor playing a beloved role. I think most voters will be very excited to reward him. Cranston could very likely win, but as of now, I think the fact that Daniels is giving an acclaimed performance in a strong show will help him pull through against Cranston, who’s giving an acclaimed performance in a weak show)

Actress in a play: Elaine May (She’s a beloved veteran who made a triumphant return to broadway in a performance that people absolutely loved. It’ll be a great opportunity to finally give her a tony that voters are highly unlikely to give up)

Supporting actor in a musical: Patrick Page (He’s in possibly the biggest musical of the season, he’s gotten raves, he seems to have plenty of industry goodwill, and he has a very showy role. Hades is a very big part, which most people agree is still legitimately supporting, he has much more depth than the leading roles, and from a vocal perspective, he has possibly the hardest job of the entire cast. Andre De Shields could definitely provide some internal competition though. He’s another veteran who’s never won giving a raved about performance, and he got in over Page at drama league and outer critics. Of course, the lack of an overlap between those organizations and tony voters means that Page’s snubs could end up meaning nothing. So as of now, I believe Page has the better shot of the two Hadestown actors due to his great notices, and the fact that he has stronger material to work with)

Supporting actress in a musical: Amber Gray (Gray will likely win for some of the same reasons as Page. The strength of the show, she’s playing a great and complex character, people are raving about her, Persephone is a big supporting role, and she won’t have to worry about splitting any votes unlike her costars. The obvious alternative choice is Ali Stroker. I’ve heard several people say that they disliked this production of Oklahoma, yet they liked her. I also know many people loved this production, and she’s likely to receive their support. However I believe the divisiveness of the show is going to hurt all the actors’ chances of winning. As I previously said, while Gray won’t have a costar to split votes with, Mary Testa is most likely going to be nominated alongside Stroker, and there’s a definite chance that she could steal some votes from her. A potentially close race, but I think the new and exciting nature of Gray’s show and character will end up getting her the win)

Supporting actor in a play: Bertie Carvel (He’s already won the Olivier, and I believe the road to the tony looks pretty clear. The footage of him for the show’s opening was totally electric, making his part look big, showy, and very exciting. It brought Roy Cohn in Angels in America to mind for me, which can only mean good things for his awards prospects. Also, the tonys owe Carvel after his Matilda snub)

Supporting actress in a play: Celia Keenan-Bolger (It’s her time. She’s been giving great performances for years, and now she’s got her hands on an iconic character, with most people agreeing that she’s owning it. She’s going to be helped by the fact that Scout is really a leading character that’s eligible in supporting. In the event that the love for the Ferryman and Cranston’s leading performance overcome To Kill a Mockingbird, then Keenan-Bolger could potentially get even more support as a way to reward at least one aspect of the show)

Updated On: 4/25/19 at 03:13 AM

[MollyJeanneMusic]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 10:49am

I haven’t seen anyone discuss choreography awards - what are your thoughts? I could see Denis Jones taking it home for Tootsie, or maybe Head Over Heels. Any other thoughts?

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:02am

MollyJeanneMusic said: "I haven’t seen anyone discuss choreography awards - what are your thoughts? I could see Denis Jones taking it home for Tootsie, or maybe Head Over Heels. Any other thoughts?"

I don't think it's even a race. Warren Carlyle will win for Kiss Me, Kate (probably KMK's only win), with other nominees being Denis Jones, Sergio Trujillo, David Neuman, and Casey Nicholaw. (I think with the criticisms we've heard about the Dream Ballet, Oklahoma will not get nominated.)

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:03am

MollyJeanneMusic said: "I haven’t seen anyone discuss choreography awards - what are your thoughts? I could see Denis Jones taking it home for Tootsie, or maybe Head Over Heels. Any other thoughts?"

 

I think it’s Kiss Me Kate’s to lose! Unless Hadestown does a full sweep. I do like the choreo in Hadestown a lot actually, but I feel like the award usually goes to more traditional dance. I’d love to see Head Over Heels sneak in but they’re definitely at a disadvantage as of now. 

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:07am

Those five seem like the likeliest nominees, but I too wish Head Over Heels would sneak into choreography. If it were still running, I think it would be a no-brainer.

[Hot Pants]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:07am

MollyJeanneMusic said: "I haven’t seen anyone discuss choreography awards - what are your thoughts? I could see Denis Jones taking it home for Tootsie, or maybe Head Over Heels. Any other thoughts?"

Right now I’m fairly confidant that Kiss Me, Kate! is gonna win for choreography. When I saw it I thought that all the dancing was excellent, with too darn hot being a complete and utter showstopper. Even if that number is taken out of the equation, there’s still many other incredibly choreographed moments. Tom, Dick, or Harry was another big crowd pleaser, and Corbin Bleu’s tap dancing in Bianca was unbelievable

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:12am

I really believe Elaine May and Celia Keenan Bolger will win. Doesn't seem to be enough support for the other nominees. I find it crazy that no one from The Ferryman may win for acting though, such a strong and big cast, id find it hard to believe none of them win. For supporting actor, I believe thats their best chance. Likely going to be something like: 

Gideon Glick (TKAM)

Tyler Glenn Carney (The Ferryman, and I believe their best chance to win)

Bertie Carvel (Ink) 

Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This) 

Benjamin Walker (All My Sons) 

 

Pretty strong category to be honest. I could see Walker, Carvel, and Glenn Carney being the strongest contenders. 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:13am

I wouldn’t count out Ain’t Too Proud in choreo. It’s not as flashy as something like Kiss Me Kate, but it was so sharp and consistent, and really tied the whole show together.

[CT2NYC]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:16am

Mike Barrett said: "I really believe Elaine May and Celia Keenan Bolger will win. Doesn't seem to be enough support for the other nominees. I find it crazy that no one from The Ferryman may win for acting though, such a strong and big cast, id find it hard to believe none of them win. For supporting actor, I believe thats their best chance. Likely going to be something like:

Gideon Glick (TKAM)

Tyler Glenn Carney (The Ferryman, and I believe their best chance to win)

Bertie Carvel (Ink)

Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This)

Benjamin Walker (All My Sons)



Pretty strong category to be honest. I could see Walker, Carvel, and Glenn Carney being the strongest contenders."

It's Tom Glynn-Carney, and, yes, I also think he's a serious contender for the win.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:18am

Mike Barrett said: "I really believe Elaine May and Celia Keenan Bolger will win. Doesn't seem to be enough support for the other nominees. I find it crazy that no one from The Ferryman may win for acting though, such a strong and big cast, id find it hard to believe none of them win. For supporting actor, I believe thats their best chance. Likely going to be something like:

Gideon Glick (TKAM)

Tyler Glenn Carney (The Ferryman, and I believe their best chance to win)

Bertie Carvel (Ink)

Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This)

Benjamin Walker (All My Sons)



Pretty strong category to be honest. I could see Walker, Carvel, and Glenn Carney being the strongest contenders."

I could see Justin Edwards get in for The Ferryman as well - I think he and Tom Glynn-Carney will both be nominated. (Personally I’d remove Glick, but I inexplicably hated TKAM which is really throwing me off this year.)

[52889j]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:19am

CT2NYC said: "Mike Barrett said: "I really believe Elaine May and Celia Keenan Bolger will win. Doesn't seem to be enough support for the other nominees. I find it crazy that no one from The Ferryman may win for acting though, such a strong and big cast, id find it hard to believe none of them win. For supporting actor, I believe thats their best chance. Likely going to be something like:

Gideon Glick (TKAM)

Tyler Glenn Carney (The Ferryman, and I believe their best chance to win)

Bertie Carvel (Ink)

Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This)

Benjamin Walker (All My Sons)



Pretty strong category to be honest. I could see Walker, Carvel, and Glenn Carney being the strongest contenders."

It's Tom Glynn-Carney, and, yes, I also think he's a serious contender for the win."

He'd be a great winner, and I think we're wise to predict him for a nomination, but I'm still in disbelief that Justin Edwards isn't running away with the thing. That's the performance that has haunted me most from The Ferryman and I still recall so clearly so many months later.

 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 11:21am

52889j said: "CT2NYC said: "Mike Barrett said: "I really believe Elaine May and Celia Keenan Bolger will win. Doesn't seem to be enough support for the other nominees. I find it crazy that no one from The Ferryman may win for acting though, such a strong and big cast, id find it hard to believe none of them win. For supporting actor, I believe thats their best chance. Likely going to be something like:

Gideon Glick (TKAM)

Tyler Glenn Carney (The Ferryman, and I believe their best chance to win)

Bertie Carvel (Ink)

Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This)

Benjamin Walker (All My Sons)



Pretty strong category to be honest. I could see Walker, Carvel, and Glenn Carney being the strongest contenders."

It's Tom Glynn-Carney, and, yes, I also think he's a serious contender for the win."

He'd be a great winner, and I think we're wise to predict him for a nomination, but I'm still in disbelief that Justin Edwards isn't running away with the thing. That's the performance that has haunted me most fromThe Ferrymanand I still recall so clearly so many months later.

"

Justin Edwards too, yes!!! Id put him in over Glick tbh. Id nominate everyone from The Ferryman if I could, but Tom Glenn Carney just left me so impressed. Not necessarily more than the others, but he was a standout for me. Id be happy with anyone from that show winning any acting award. 

[Fredrich Yeager]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 12:13pm

Not really a prediction, but when will the presenters of the awards be announced? 

Also, I'm seeing a lot of focus on the major awards, what are we thinking for the creative awards? I'm thinking Gary is going to grab set design and costuming for play, and I think it would be a crime if Beetlejuice (for all its mediocrities elsewhere) didn't win set design for a musical, but I'm not sure where everything else will fall.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 12:15pm

Featured Actress in a Play is a category that I feel could end up being a great early indicator on the telecast as to who's going to win the Ferryman vs. Mockingbird Best Play battle.  14 of the last 19 winners for Best Play have taken home at least 1 acting trophy, and this seems like it may be both shows best chances of winning (Daniels of course is a strong contender for Actor, but could easily see that going the way of Cranston, meaning this may be the only category one of these two shows wins).

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 12:18pm

Broadway61004 said: "Featured Actress in a Play is a category that I feel could end up being a great early indicator on the telecast as to who's going to win the Ferryman vs. Mockingbird Best Play battle. 14 of the last 19 winners for Best Play have taken home at least 1 acting trophy, and this seems like it may be both shows best chances of winning (Daniels of course is a strong contender for Actor, but could easily see that going the way of Cranston, meaning this may be the only category one of these two shows wins)."

This is a good point, as the only supporting actresses with a chance of upsetting Celia would be from The Ferryman. Im so itnruged by the battle for best play with The Ferryman, TKAM, and now What The Constitution Means To Me. I'll say it yet again, been a phenomenal season for straight plays! 

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 12:28pm

I don't think any of the supporting women from The Ferryman are Tony worthy at all. They're extremely small parts that I suppose are funny and entertaining, but I'm not sure that I'd put them in over any of the supporting women from Mockingbird or Joan Allen or even Julie White. The Ferryman is such an ensemble play that I can't really pick out any standout performances.

I think play is the toughest category of the year. I think it might actually end up going to Mockingbird. I'm hearing slightly more buzz around it than any of the other nominees. While many love The Ferryman, I'm also hearing a lot of people criticize the writing and directing. I think maybe some of the hype around it from across the pond has harmed it a bit.

As for musical, after seeing Tootsie, Hadestown has this in the bag. I think The Waverly Gallery and Oklahoma! will take the revivals.

[victoriafr]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 12:33pm

I think that the battle for Best Play is really between The Ferryman and TKAM. I just don't see What the Constitution Means to Me winning the award. Part of that is because it's mostly a one-woman show, where as the other two have a big ensemble cast. It's also less of a traditional play, which I think in this case (though it's not always true) will hurt it rather that help it.

[BwayGeek2]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 1:36pm

Woah! With Drama Desk noms coming in, I'm surprised to see that 'The Waverly Gallery' was the only Broadway revival nominated for Best Revival.

Tony nominations are going to be intense, but here's what I think could work for best revival (at least my top four!):

The Boys in the Band

Torch Song

Waverly Gallery

All My Sons

 

 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 1:42pm

BwayGeek2 said: "Woah! With Drama Desk noms coming in, I'msurprised to see that 'The Waverly Gallery' was the only Broadway revival nominated for Best Revival.

Tony nominations are going to be intense, but here's what I think could work for best revival (at least my top four!):

The Boys in the Band

Torch Song

Waverly Gallery

All My Sons



"

I think this is very possible at this point. Reviews for Burn This are mixed, so I could see it losing its spot. Waverly I think will be winning this 100% though, has been the only revival consistently nominated so far, along with Elaine May. Just seems to be one of the plays this season that has a consensus opinion for the most part. 

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/25/19 at 2:49pm

Just pointing out that The Boys in the Band and Torch Song weren’t eligible at the Drama Desks. But I can definitely see both and The Waverly Gallery all getting in for the Tony, which also means all three authors will get nominations.