Way too early 2016 Tony predictions- Page 19

[bear88]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 3:44am

I'm preaching to the choir here, but if Shuffle Along is a revival, I'm Ethel Merman. I don't know enough about Tony rules but it seems goofy to take songs from an old musical and write a completely different story and call that a revival. 

Besides, I wonder if it's in the show's interest to be treated as a revival. Sure, that gives the producer a shot at winning a Tony, but it's hardly a sure thing. If the reaction on this board, and the mad scramble to rewrite the second act, is any indication, it would be lucky to win as a revival. And that's not counting voters who might punish the show for gaming the rules. Again, I don't know how this stuff works, so I may be way off. Almost everyone who posts here would have a better idea, so correct me if I'm wrong.

Nobody is going to fault the show for losing to Hamilton, and it's got plenty of star power to do just fine unless the critics really trash it or people decide they just aren't interested. Wouldn't it be worse to lose as a revival, especially a revival that played games and is losing its star for the summer?

Updated On: 4/28/16 at 03:44 AM

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 3:48am

Yes I have to admit I don't understand the logic of the producers wanting it in revival. As an original musical it has a good chance of being nominated, as a revival against 4 other strong revivals it has a poor chance.

 

[TFMH18]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 9:34am

After this gut-wrenching NY Times profile on Carmen Cusack, I am officially predicting a (very, very deserved) nomination in the leading actress category. Not sure if she will knock someone else out, or if they will expand to six, but I can't imagine her and that stellar performance going unrecognized. And I am also thrilled the Times ran this BEFORE nominations, as well, as it can only work in her favor. 

 

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/01/theater/carmen-cusack-puts-her-pain-and-her-joy-into-a-leading-broadway-role.html?smid=tw-nytimestheater&smtyp=cur&_r=0&referer=

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 9:34am

When should we expect the final rulings decisions to come out? Can anyone guarantee tomorrow, or could it be Monday?

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 9:36am

Oh it should be tomorrow. They report it right when they're done meeting, I believe.

[Freeman5]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 10:00am

Why would they place Shuffle Along... in the revival category? It is so clearly a brand new show in the way that Crazy For You was a reworking of Girl Crazy and My One and Only was a reworking mostly of Funny Face. Shuffle Along... belongs in the new musical category. It will be really surprising to me if the committee chooses otherwise....

 

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 10:06am

They won't. It's just what Scott Rudin wants because he doesn't want to be against Hamilton.

[ViniFromBrazil]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 11:32am

I'm submitting these to my friends' prediction game, I hope I get it!!!

Outstanding Play
1. The Humans
2. Eclipsed
3. King Charles III
4. The Father
(5. Therese Raquin)

Outstanding Musical
1. Hamilton
2. Waitress
3. American Psycho
4. School of Rock
(5. Shuffle Along)

Outstanding Revival of a Play
1. A View From the Bridge
2. Long Day's Journey Into Night
3. The Crucible
4. Blackbird
(5. Noises Off)

Outstanding Revival of a Musical
1. The Color Purple
2. She Loves Me
3. Fiddler on the Roof 
(4. Dames at Sea. Kidding. Spring Awakening)

Outstanding Actor in a Play
1. Mark Strong, A View From the Bridge
2. Frank Langella, The Father
3. Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
4. Gabriel Bryne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
(5. Jeff Daniels, Blackbird)

Outstanding Actress in a Play
1. Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
2. Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
3. Nicola Walker, A View From the Bridge
4. Michelle Williams, Blackbird
(5. Annaleigh Ashford, Sylvia)

Outstanding Actor in a Musical
1. Lin Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
2. Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton
3. Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
4. Benjamin Walker, American Psycho
(5. Alex Brightman, School of Rock)

Outstanding Actress in a Musical
1. Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
2. Jessie Mueller, Waitress
3. Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
4. Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
(5. Phillipa Soo, Hamilton)

Outstanding Featured Actor in a Play
1. Reed Birney, The Humans
2. Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night
3. Robert Sella, Sylvia
4. Richard Goulding, King Charles III
(5. Bill Camp, The Crucible)

Outstanding Featured Actress in a Play
1. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
2. Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed
3. Pascale Armand, Eclipsed
4. Lydia Wilson, King Charles III
(5. Zainab Jah, Eclipsed)

Outstanding Featured Actor in a Musical
1. Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
2. Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
3. Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
4. Nicholas Barasch, She Loves Me
(5. Christopher Jackson, Hamilton)

Outstanding Featured Actress in a Musical
1. Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
2. Jennifer Hudson, The Color Purple
3. Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
(5. Lesli Margherita, Dames at Sea)

Outstanding Director of a Play
1. Rupert Goold, King Charles III
2. Joe Mantello, The Humans
3. Ivo van Hove, A View From the Bridge
4. Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
(5. Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night)

Outstanding Director of a Musical
1. John Doyle, The Color Purple
2. Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
3. Bartlett Sher, Fiddler on the Roof
4. Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
(5. Rupert Goold, American Psycho)

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 11:36am

All the acting categories have 5 nominations. That's the default number.

[TFMH18]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 11:42am

I said this in the Drama Desk noms thread, but I'll reiterate here. 

Is there a realistic chance that Audra will not be nominated in the leading actress category? Again, I believe if she were another actress playing that role it would be all but acknowledged that she would not be nominated. She's great in the show, but the work just doesn't hold up to the others in the category who so deserve nods, but do not have her same stature. 

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 11:44am

Anything is possible. I think her work is deserving of a nomination, though. We'll see what happens on Tuesday.

[ViniFromBrazil]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 11:47am

neonlightsxo said: "All the acting categories have 5 nominations. That's the default number."

Oh sorry, this is one of the stupid rules in my friends' game, we can only pick 4.

I know that this is not the topic of this thread, but do you guys miss the PLAYS performances in the telecast? I kind of do, but I also think that some of them were really bad in terms of setting the context of the story. Anyhow, James Corden's bit some years ago is some of my favorite moments ever! So funny and simple (for us to watch, lol)!

[MyLife]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 12:05pm

ViniFromBrazil said: "I'm submitting these to my friends' prediction game, I hope I get it!!!


Outstanding Director of a Musical
1. John Doyle, The Color Purple
2. Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
3. Bartlett Sher, Fiddler on the Roof
4. Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
(5. Rupert Goold, American Psycho)

"

I can't imagine Tommy Kail not getting a nomination for Hamilton, especially since he's my pick to win :)

I think much of Hamilton's success is due to how it was directed. Sure the pieces are individually great but the direction brings the whole show together so perfectly.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 12:12pm

Now that Drama Desk nominations are out and we're only five days away from Tony nominations (no longer "way too early!", I've set up the below thread for the nominations discussion to continue. Please consider using it going forward:

https://forum.broadwayworld.com/readmessage.php?thread=1092338&dt=0

[backwoodsbarbie]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 12:19pm

I predict that the TONY producers will find a way to show the awards for score and book live because of the Hamilton hype and because we know Lin will rap his acceptance speeches. 

[jayinchelsea]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 12:27pm

I have reviewed ViniFromBrazil's list and here are my comments (and yes, tonight's opening of SHUFFLE ALONG may clarify these guesses):

Outstanding Play
1. The Humans
2. Eclipsed
3. King Charles III
4. The Father
(Therese Paquin was terrible, most critics agreed, and is not getting nominated for anything, imo)


Outstanding Musical
1. Hamilton
2. Waitress
3. Shuffle Along
4. School of Rock
(5. American Psycho)

Outstanding Revival of a Play
1. A View From the Bridge
2. Long Day's Journey Into Night
3. The Crucible
4. Noises Off
(5. Blackbird)

Outstanding Revival of a Musical
1. The Color Purple
2. She Loves Me
3. Fiddler on the Roof 
(4. Spring Awakening)

Outstanding Actor in a Play
1. Mark Strong, A View From the Bridge
2. Frank Langella, The Father
3. Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
4. Gabriel Bryne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
(5. Jeff Daniels, Blackbird)

Outstanding Actress in a Play
1. Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
2. Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
3. Nicola Walker, A View From the Bridge
4. Annaleigh Ashford, Sylvia


Outstanding Actor in a Musical
1. Lin Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
2. Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton
3. Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
4. Alex Brightman, School of Rock
(5. Zachary Levi, She Loves Me)

Outstanding Actress in a Musical
1. Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
2. Jessie Mueller, Waitress
3. Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
4. Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
(5. Phillipa Soo, Hamilton)

Outstanding Featured Actor in a Play
1. Reed Birney, The Humans
2. Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night
3. Robert Sella, Sylvia
4. Richard Goulding, King Charles III
(5. Bill Camp, The Crucible)

Outstanding Featured Actress in a Play
1. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
2. Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed
3. Pascale Armand, Eclipsed
4. Lydia Wilson, King Charles III
(5. Zainab Jah, Eclipsed)

Outstanding Featured Actor in a Musical
1. Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
2. Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
3. Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
4. Nicholas Barasch, She Loves Me
(5. Christopher Jackson, Hamilton)

Outstanding Featured Actress in a Musical
1. Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
2. Jennifer Hudson, The Color Purple
3. Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
(5. Lesli Margherita, Dames at Sea)

Outstanding Director of a Play
1. Rupert Goold, King Charles III
2. Joe Mantello, The Humans
3. Ivo van Hove, A View From the Bridge
4. Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
(5. Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night)

Outstanding Director of a Musical
1. John Doyle, The Color Purple
2. Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
3. Bartlett Sher, Fiddler on the Roof
4. Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
5. Thomas Kail, Hamilton

 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 12:45pm

backwoodsbarbie said: "I predict that the TONY producers will find a way to show the awards for score and book live because of the Hamilton hype and because we know Lin will rap his acceptance speeches."

Especially the fact that this year's nominees for Best Original Score are likely going to be all mainstream (Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Andrew Lloyd Webber, and Sara Bareilles).

 

[Broadway Forever2]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 1:03pm

backwoodsbarbie said: "I predict that the TONY producers will find a way to show the awards for score and book live because of the Hamilton hype and because we know Lin will rap his acceptance speeches. 

 

"

I'm pretty sure score will be done live

Updated On: 4/28/16 at 01:03 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/28/16 at 1:42pm

Broadway Forever2 said:

"I'm pretty sure score will be done live"

 

Let's hope it stays that way post-Hamilton. It's crazy that this award isn't part of the main telecast - it's arguably one of the most important elements of a musical's success, if not THE most important.

[ChiTheaterFan]

Posted: 5/13/16 at 1:39am

MNC77 said: "Since everyone is already predicting Hamilton for Best Musical, I wanted to hear who will win all of the other big awards in a year (or if you can't predict the future, your best guess) Clearly it won't be too accurate since I'm sure many more shows will announce runs later on, but it'll be fun to look back on later and see how wrong we were!

 

"

Just read through the first several pages of this again. It really is funny with the benefit of hindsight!    Fun to read through.  Also a little sad for some shows like Allegiance...