How long will the current shows run for?

[Jay94]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 3:04am

Just a thread for some speculation on current shows. Please feel free to contribute to the discussion.

Fun Home - I could see this doing well for most of this year but I think it will begin to struggle when the hot shows from next season arrive; particularly after the expected Hamilton Tony sweep.

Something Rotten - It's doing well now but I can't see it lasting past next summer.

An American in Paris - I'd give it 2-3 years.

The King and I - It will be interesting to see what happens after Kelli O'Hara leaves. It will probably have a similar run to South Pacific, so two more years.

A Gentleman's Guide - Gone by the start of next year.

Kinky Boots - Probably has around a year and a half left; a great run.

Matilda - Hard to tell but it still has a few years left.

Aladdin - It will never struggle but I expect it to make way for Frozen at the New Amsterdam.

Beautiful - I'm not sure how this has been doing lately.

Les Miz - Who knows but they really seem to be sticking with it.

Hamilton - Random guess, four to five years.

Updated On: 7/26/15 at 03:04 AM

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 3:17am

Great thread!

I guessed 3-5 years with the King and I, but someone on here told me that non-profits can't run for that long, but then how do you explain Cabaret running for so many years? I think King and I will run longer than South Pacific. I think we will see lots of Kings and lots of Annas. I wouldnt be surprised if they get big names to play Anna.

Beautiful-still doing really well. I give it 2-4 more years

Les Mis-1 more year. Gone next fall for Saigon

Something Rotten and Paris-2-3 year runs

Gentleman's Guide-Gone by September or January

Kinky Boots-2-3 more years

Matilda-3 more years

Aladdin-idk whenever disney decides to close it. I agree, i think it will always make money

Fun Home-this is hard to predict since its kind of a hard sell, but yet it won best musical. I give it 3 more years

Hamilton-6-10 years

 

[Islander_fan]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 8:28am

Philly,

 

Where did you get your information regarding non profit runs? Are you sure it was someone  on here? I have to say that for someone who hates to cite sources and loves walking away with egg on their face, you're doing a bang up job. Keep up the good work, I love a free show. 

[ChildofEarth]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 10:34am

I'm not sure this is the appropriate place to ask, but do we know what is closing so that Falsettos can open? 

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 10:47am

I think King and I, at least, has 2 years at most. The Lincoln Center is its own independent theater, so they would probably want more room to do their one shows.

Matilda: 2 years 

Aladdin: Holder for Frozen unless they can get someplace else. 

Fun Home: As long as no one needs this tiny space, it can stay for a long time

Lion King/Phantom/Wicked/BOM: Who knows?

Les Mis-1 year more

SR: 2 years

AI Paris: 3-4 years. But, isn't this the rumored spot for Frozen?

Jersey Boys: 1-2 years

Hamilton: 3-5 years

Kinky Boots: 2-4 years

[HogansHero]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 11:17am

Child, I don't think any show "has" to close for Falsettos; I think it will take a house that is scheduled to be vacant. 

[ChildofEarth]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 11:19am

Wrong choice of word on my part - that's what happens when you write from your phone

 

It's going to be a Jujamcyn theater, I would assume, which might help us narrow it and make more accurate predictions about those shows. 

[ZellMorrowsPledge]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 12:17pm

Shows that will be gone in the next year are probably Les Mis, GGLAM, obviously Amazing Grace, maybe Hedwig, Hand To God, and I'll give On The Town maybe till next spring. 

I think some shows that will be running for at least the next 3-4 years or maybe longer are Fun Home, Matilda, Hamilton, and Aladdin unless Frozen takes its place.

Kinky, An American In Paris, and Jersey Boys have at the most 2 years left.

Something tells me Finding Neverland & Something Rotten are gonna be here for a while.

 

& I think The King And I will continue to play packed houses until after the holidays and during Tony season when everyone forgets its running

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 12:26pm

I would't be surprised if Gentleman's Guide closes up shop in January and Falsettos goes into the Walter Kerr.

[Kad]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 12:27pm

Productions can only run as non-profits for a certain amount of time. At a certain point, they can become for-profit and the people employed on it will be paid full rates.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 2:02pm

If Aladdin is still making money whenever Frozen is ready to open, Disney won't close it. They don't close shows that are still profitable. If they really want Frozen to open at the New Amsterdam, they could simply move Aladdin a la Lion King. Alternatively, they could chops to open Frozen at another theater. 

[ChildofEarth]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 2:18pm

Weren't there rumors not so long ago that Disney was building a new theater? I think it was before Aladdin opened, but I'm not sure.

I can't see them closing Aladdin (though has anyone from the OBC left? It'll be a challenge when JMI leaves, maybe) and they definitely aren't closing Lion King.

[snarkmachine]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 2:33pm

I think Les Mis could be gone by spring so Miss Saigon makes the cut-off for Best Revival at the 2016 Tonys.

[mattporter17]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 2:48pm

Any particular reason of why Frozen has to be in the New Amsterdam? Disney owns that theater, right?

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 3:02pm

^Right

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 3:02pm

^Right

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 3:55pm

Technically the New Amsterdam is owned by the City of New York. Disney has a 99 year lease on the property (which they signed in either 1993 or 1994).

But, for all intents and purposes, yes, they "own" it.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 4:04pm

"Any particular reason of why Frozen has to be in the New Amsterdam? Disney owns that theater, right?"

 None at all. I think people are just operating under the assumption that because it's their "flagship" theater, they'd want to open Frozen there. 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 4:39pm

Exactly it's disneys flag ship theatre and with a show the size of frozen they would want to open it in that theatre.

[GreasedLightning]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 5:01pm

"If Aladdin is still making money whenever Frozen is ready to open, Disney won't close it. They don't close shows that are still profitable. If they really want Frozen to open at the New Amsterdam, they could simply move Aladdin a la Lion King. Alternatively, they could chops to open Frozen at another theater. "

 So why did they close Newsies? 

[mattporter17]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 5:03pm

Yeah, I just checked the production history of the New Amsterdam. Makes sense.

[ZellMorrowsPledge]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 5:14pm

I think its safe to assume that Frozen is going to be a huge production so I think it would be great at the Lyric or Palace. I don't think they'll close Aladdin for it, and if the reason that that show is doing so well is because of the original stars, they've all renewed their contracts until February 21, 2016 so it still has a while and there are still so many ittle kids growing up ready to see their first bway show which will most likely be Aladdin. Having all 3 shows running would be a huge financial venture for Disney but I dont think money is an issue for them

[mattporter17]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 5:18pm

"Having all 3 shows running would be a huge financial venture for Disney but I don't think money is an issue for them"

And Frozen (if done right) is going to be a massive Broadway hit of Lion King proportions, so it's not like it won't be pulling in tons of cash each week. 

[Clyde15]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 5:25pm

""If Aladdin is still making money whenever Frozen is ready to open, Disney won't close it. They don't close shows that are still profitable. If they really want Frozen to open at the New Amsterdam, they could simply move Aladdin a la Lion King. Alternatively, they could chops to open Frozen at another theater. "
 So why did they close Newsies? "

 Newsies stopped having Million Dollar weeks, it reached a point where it was barely breaking even. Yes the last few months they started making tons of money again but only after they posted the closing notice.

[ZellMorrowsPledge]

Posted: 7/26/15 at 5:28pm

""Having all 3 shows running would be a huge financial venture for Disney but I don't think money is an issue for them"
And Frozen (if done right) is going to be a massive Broadway hit of Lion King proportions, so it's not like it won't be pulling in tons of cash each week. "

 Exactly. Just hopefully if Frozen is a huge hit people won't stop going to see Aladdin