Hey guys, I haven't checked in for a while. But I have been paying attention and here's my 2 cents.
I haven't seen American Sniper, Selma, or Inherent Vice. I'd really love to see all 3, but being in Upstate NY means no dice pre-December and even in AS's case it will be AFTER nomination day. I loved Inherent Vice the book and am fascinated by the stories of both Selma to Montgomery March and a character study of Chris Kyle. Anyway, thoughts on the awards films.
Foxcatcher premiering at Cannes and Bennett Miller getting rewarded by a jury that featured Jane Campion, Nicolas Winding Refn, and Sofia Coppola makes so much sense. It's really his most arthouse film yet. Sometimes it felt like an Andrey Zvganitsev film. Other times it felt like a Joseph Losey or Robert Aldrich stylized but smart tabloid twist that could be both critical and entertaining. When the film is much like the latter, I like it a lot. The cocaine on the helicopter scene? Such a crib from Pygmalion/My Fair Lady and I loved it. But this film was missing something. It couldn't decide between the two versions I mentioned. Perhaps the film was tinkered on for too long- remember this was meant to be released last year. The American flag imagery and motifs felt like such a continuation of last year (from The Wolf of Wall Street to Spring Breakers to even Pain & Gain) but also felt like Miller took notes from watching Soderbergh's Behind the Candelabra. The gay subtext that feels more obvious than the real DuPont's mental illness and everything after the major event feels rushed, as though many things were cut out. I thought Carell was at odds with the script. His performance felt like the Adrich/Losey film and at times so did Tatum, but Ruffalo was most rewarded by the script with the perfect Oscar submission scene in his interview in trying to praise DuPont. I'm not a fan of Bennett Miller at all and Greig Fraser's washed out cinematography was more memorable in better, earlier films so if this lands nothing on nomination morning, I won't lose sleep. I have Ruffalo getting nominated. Carell could still get in but he frankly should be in supporting. Tatum would make my personal ballot at this point, but he's getting no traction.
I really dug Nightcrawler but even I'm surprised by its run at nominations at the Globes, SAG, and even with critics groups. Jake Gyllenhaal getting nominated would be my favorite acting nomination since PSH and Joaquin both got in for The Master. It still seems like a long-shot if just because although it's a great LA film that immediately could appeal to the Academy, its charms for me was its Midnight movie, seedy quality. Like I could see Academy members turning off their screeners when Gyllenhaal propositions Russo (who I'd love to see as an out of nowhere nomination). I think it's going to be like In Bruges, a first feature film that was a buzzy title in its year but its qualities will likely only get it a Screenplay nod. Dream would be its score, editing, cinematography (Robert Elswit POWAH), supporting actress, supporting actor, screenplay, and actor nomination, but I would say its ceiling is 2 at this point.
I think Boyhood's still in the first position for Best Picture. It's like The Hurt Locker year. The film made hay at festivals by a kinda outsider director who is both a populist and an art house filmmaker who makes a labor of love film that I would say had not pretense to be an awards film that becomes one because a lot of the big studio fare in contention feels underwhelming. Add into the fact IFC/Sundance Selects, who distributes the film, hired the Cynthia Swartz, who has done the Best Picture campaigns for The Hurt Locker and Argo films that gained momentum in an underdog role (latter because the directors branch said, 'Thanks, but no thanks' to an Affleck nomination). Linklater is also a previous nominee for his work on the Before Midnight and Before Sunset screenplays and I think both Hawke and Arquette have so much goodwill not just for their work in the industry but their roles are so vanity-free and relatable. Personally speaking, it ain't Linklater's best but it is a good marriage of his art and commerce side plus it is the shortest 2 hours and 40 minute film I've ever seen. Its feat of 12 years of story told as an entire cohesive narrative feature is still the biggest is still the most talked about thing in awards season. It is hard to dismiss.
Birdman would seem to have a good grip on the Best Picture race for its acting and maybe even its cinematography with Lubezki repeating as a winner. But its screenplay and it 'looks like no edits' trick still feels like in the categories of editing, script, and directing lagging behind Linklater and Boyhood. It's short and entertaining, but I saw it a week ago and don't remember any monologues from it despite there being so much of it. It's a departure from AGI's films that have connected with AMPAS but it feels like he is cribbing from his own friend Cuaron (who made the better film that I found more engaged by), all the way down to having Lubezki as DP and having even less cuts. The score by Antonio Sanchez sadly got disqualified, which is a shame. It's literally the only non-visuals I remember from the film. But I think Keaton, Stone, and Norton are editing locks. Will be curious if this does get an editing nomination.
Now for categories:
Actress- Julianne Moore's to lose. It will probably be like Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart (again, mirrors of The Hurt Locker year). I think Reese Witherspoon is next but is hurt by the fact she still faces patronization as a not-serious actress (read as a bankable beautiful movie star who mostly has done comedies) despite being a previous winner. Like Bullock last year, the film she is in is mostly her on-screen and having a follow-up nomination after a win is a small victory in of itself. Then we get to a messy final 3. I think Rosamund Pike gets in but is a stronger year she would be those WTF snubs. Her role and performance is divisive but Gone Girl's showings early on this awards season has been strange for such box office smash that still managed good reviews despite negative attention. Then Felicity Jones as a coat-tail nomination for Redmayne in The Theory of Everything. Fifth spot, I can believe Marion Cotillard can be like Penelope Cruz in Volver for Two Days, One Night (Harvey Weinstein's treatment of The Immigrant this year has been so criminal) despite the Dardennes again failing to get short-listed for Foreign Language Film. Cotillard has benefited from critical support from NYFCC and Boston but she needs a lot of help and visibility. So her closest competition is Jennifer Aniston in Cake whose late upswing personally does feel like some cosmic joke, especially if Jolie gets nominated for directing Unbroken. I think she is helped by Globes and SAG nominations, obviously, but in looking up Cake, half of SAG is in that film and HFPA loves to get tabloid stars on their awards show. I still won't believe it even if she is announced nomination morning.
Actor- I think Keaton has a good narrative although I feel like know so little about his Birdman character (the film felt like a dreamlike death wish, but that's another story). So, who falls next? Redmayne and Cumberbatch repping the Brits in films about science figures who transcend due to other human interest attributes to them. Then you have David Oyelowo as MLK in Selma. I still think that film's late charge makes it hard to tell how it will do nomination-wise, but he's probably the most crucial nomination for it as a Best Picture threat after Ava DuVernay being nominated. Then you have Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler, Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner, and Steve Carell for Foxcatcher. I think it is Gyllenhaal vs. Cooper, the only two previous nominees of the contenders. I think American Sniper is going to do well with the steak eaters at the Academy and Cooper's transformation are going to be taken into account. Gyllenhaal is the rare portraying an original character of the contenders (Keaton is ostensibly doing a meta version of himself) so it has that appeal plus transformation in looking so ghoulish- which I think really hurts Carell in that the ghoul spook in a very showy role of the contenders didn't end up being him. But still, that role of Louis Bloom is for a cult film that never had the pretense of an Oscar contender. So, for me, Cooper takes the last spot as the only returning nominee included in this group.
Best Director- I think it is Linklater's to lose and then it gets strange. I think AGI is the next lock. Then you have somewhat unknown Ava DuVernay for Selma followed by Clint Eastwood for American Sniper. Those are the other two I can see getting in but it wouldn't shock me if either is an OMG Snub on nomination morning. Then there are Morten Tyldum and Angelina Jolie fighting it out for a WWII picture. Tyldum seems like such a Harvey nominee that I can believe he could be nominated but I still find The Imitation Game as a total paper lion than The King's Speech threat redux. Jolie is hurt by her star power and I'm already seeing sexist undertone whispers that Roger Deakins did the 'heavy-lifting'. I think the Directors Branch is capable of some curve ball picks. I think Fox Searchlight has done an excellent job with The Grand Budapest Hotel. It's such a crowd-pleaser that I can really see it as Wes Anderson's breakthrough. I really do want to see what the DGA puts out. If he's on that list, I think he's in. But another WTF pick I can see is Damien Chazelle for Whiplash. The Benh Zeitlin, 'Um... who is he?' pick so to speak. But my heart wants Wes Anderson to be picked.
Original Score- Prayer circles for Jonny Greenwood for Inherent Vice (shaddup I heard the score), James Newton Howard for Nightcrawler, and Mica Levi for Under The Skin to join Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross in Gone Girl as the non-stuffy music scores to get nominated this year. The music branch is so incestuous and uninspired by their choices. Also hoping that Alexandre Desplat is nominated for the correct score (that being The Grand Budapest Hotel).
Cinematography- Another one where a lot of the default selections are to Best Picture nominees but then again, they can make some interesting nominations e.g. The Grandmaster nomination last year. I would love to see Robert Yeoman be nominated for The Grand Budapest Hotel and I can see Bradford Young for Selma be nominated as the newcomer. I think this is Lubezki vs. Deakins, though. Followed by Gone Girl and Mr. Turner (it's honestly my least favorite Leigh, but Dick Pope's camera work is gorgeous). So I think in the end the final spot is likely Yeoman vs. Young as first time nominees (amazing Yeoman has never been nominated) with maybe Tom Stern for American Sniper as a dark horse.
Updated On: 12/29/14 at 04:50 PM
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