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2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

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#1

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 11:16am

It's that time of the year again. Nominations come out tomorrow, and I think we're in for some surprises. Here are my nominations for the major categories, please share yours! I'm listing mine in order of likelihood, feel free to list yours alphabetically.

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short

Spotlight

The Revenant

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Bridge of Spies

Straight Outta Compton

Brooklyn

Sicario

Room

Best Director

Adam McKay, The Big Short

Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Actress

Brie Larson, Room

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Matt Damon, The Martian

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, Ex-Machina

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Best Supporting Actor

Sylvester Stalone, Creed

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Best Original Screenplay

Spotlight

Ex Machina

Bridge of Spies

Straight Outta Compton

Sicario

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short

Steve Jobs

Brooklyn

Room

Carol

"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"
#2

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 11:38am

I just wanted to chime in and say that I think your predictions are pretty great! Cannot wait until the nominations come out tomorrow morning!

I saw three movies last weekend - The Revenant, Bridge of Spies, and The Hateful 8 and enjoyed all three. This weekend will likely be Mad Max: Fury Road and The Martian - possibly a third.

I love this time of the year when it comes to great films!

#3

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 1:05pm

I have my doubts about Cranston but otherwise I think your predictions are pretty spot on.

#4

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 1:13pm

I'm rooting for Rachel McAdams as I've been a long time fan. Also, anyone think Will Smith could ease his way in for "Concussion?"

#5

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 1:45pm

I think Inside Out will score a screenplay nom.

And Cranston snagged a SAG nom, which is voted on by the same block of people who nominate the acting categories for the Oscars so I wouldn't be surprised.

In fact Trumbo did surprisingly well with the SAG so I'm thinking Helen Mirren will get a nom for Hedda Hopper.

....but the world goes 'round
#6

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 2:22pm

Great predictions Ray! Your predictions are for the most part the same as the ones I've been predicting. Best Picture, Supp. Actress, and Original Screenplay are the only places they differ slightly. my Supporting Actress pick is not likely, but I can hope for an upset!

BEST PICTURE

Spotlight

The Big Short

The Revenant

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Bridge of Spies

Straight Outta Compton

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Best Director

Adam McKay, The Big Short

Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Actress

Brie Larson, Room

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Matt Damon, The Martian

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, Ex-Machina

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Best Supporting Actor

Sylvester Stalone, Creed

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Best Original Screenplay

Spotlight

Ex Machina

Bridge of Spies

Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short

Steve Jobs

Brooklyn

Room

Carol

#7

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 2:39pm

I'd be elated to see Kristen Stewart surprise in supporting. Easily one of my favorite performances of the year.

I initially had doubts about Cranston but he consistently got in for all precursors, he campaigned like nobody's business, and he is playing an important figure in Hollywood history. I think he gets in but I'd love to see a spoiler in that category.

"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"
#8

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 3:08pm

Might this be the third consecutive year in which best director goes to a Mexican?

If Inarritu wins again this year it would be only the third time that a director has won two years in a row. The others being John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath and How Green Was My Valley (1940, 1941) and Joseph Mankiewicz for A Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve (1949, 1950).

Updated On: 1/13/16 at 03:08 PM

#9

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 5:03pm

Thanks for the trivia, henrik, have you been on Jeopardy? You are the trivia master of the board.

I have a hard time seeing Inarritu win mostly because a back-to-back win is so rare, and I'm not sure he has the respect or body of work of the directors you mentioned. I think if THE REVENANT wins Picture (and it has a shot), Director will go to someone else. At the same time, Inarritu is the only one of the bunch I see as a traditional Oscar choice. McKay and Miller are too iconoclastic, McCarthy's film lacks the wow factor or the crowdpleasing factor that I associate with the Academy's picks for Director, and THE MARTIAN and Scott haven't been the powerhouse award contenders many thought it would be when the film was a critical and financial hit, I think it's going to be perceived as too much of a "popcorn" movie to win Director. If my logic is correct (and I hope it isn't since I want someone besides Inarritu to win), that leaves us with THE REVENANT taking Director. Like I said in my original post I think there will be major surprises both tomorrow and on Oscar night, which is quite exciting!

"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"
#11

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 6:36pm

Still trying to figure out how the GG classified The Martian as a comedy.

Poster Emeritus
#12

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/13/16 at 10:08pm

"Inside Outside" didn't make the WGA top 5 in original (vs. adaptations) but "Trainwreck" did. I think the WGA demographic is changing, obviously, as are other creative unions. But the Academy membership is not a strict match-up, despite a general tendency. I still think "Carol" could squeeze through, despite the absence of PGA and DGA nods

"I'm a comedian, but in my spare time, things bother me." Garry Shandling
#13

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 8:39am

So far a lot of love for Mad Max and The Revenant. Shocked to not see "See You Again" nominated for Fast and Furious 7.

#14

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 10:07am

Surprised no one has posted a full list yet. Not much out of left field, except that Room got a lot more love than I was expecting (and, frankly, than I think it deserves):

BEST PICTURE

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight

BEST ACTOR

  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
  • Matt Damon, The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

BEST ACTRESS

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Christian Bale, The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone, Creed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

DIRECTING

  • Adam McKay - The Big Short
  • George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revenant
  • Lenny Abrahamson - Room
  • Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • Anomalisa
  • Boy and the World
  • Inside Out
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • When Marnie Was There

COSTUME DESIGN

  • Carol
  • Cinderella
  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Amy
  • Cartel Land
  • The Look of Silence
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Winter on Fire

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Body Team
  • Chau, Beyond the Lines
  • Claude Lanzmann
  • A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
  • Last Day of Freedom

MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING

  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
  • The Revenant

ORIGINAL SONG

  • "Earned It" - Fifty Shades of Grey
  • "Manta Ray" - Racing Extinction
  • "Simple Song #3" - Youth
  • "Til It Happens to You" - The Hunting Ground
  • "Writing's on the Wall" - Spectre

ANIMATED SHORT

  • Bear Story
  • Prologue
  • Sanjay's Super Team
  • We Can't Live Without Cosmos
  • World of Tomorrow

SOUND EDITING

  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant

FILM EDITING

  • The Big Short
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant
  • Spotlight
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Embrace of the Serpent
  • Mustang
  • Son of Saul
  • Theeb
  • A War

ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Carol
  • The Hateful Eight
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Bridge of Spies
  • The Danish Girl
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant

VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Ex Machina
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • The Big Short
  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • The Martian
  • Room

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Ex Machina
  • Inside Out
  • Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

Updated On: 1/14/16 at 10:07 AM

#15

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 10:19am

Surprised Carol did not pick up a Best Picture nomination

Poster Emeritus
#17

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 10:29am

I am not surprised that Carol wasn't nominated, though it deserved to be. My hope is that Mara wins Supporting Actress and that the screenplay wins, as well.

#18

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 10:38am

Seeing clips from Mad Max does nothing for me. Not my type of picture. A real head scratcher that was nominated & not Carol especially as they had open slots they could have filled . No nod for Sicario either ???

Old Quentin must be feeling a bit low today .

Does Rampling pull off an upset? She deserves it for 45 years.

Poster Emeritus
#19

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 10:44am

I'm shocked the good dinosaur wasn't nominated. I know it wasn't well received, but I thought the animation alone would have earned it a spot.

My father (AIDS) My sister (AIDS) My uncle and my cousin and her best friend (AIDS, AIDS, AIDS) The gays and the straights And the white and the spades

Updated On: 1/14/16 at 10:44 AM

#21

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 10:52am

I'm just happy that AMY was nominated for Best Documentary. I think it might actually be the best film I saw in all of 2015, so I'm really hoping it wins.

#23

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 10:57am

I'm thrilled for Rampling. Her first nomination and 45 Years was the best thing I saw this past year.

Disappointed the excellent Phoenix wasn't nominated for best foreign film (or frankly for best picture) and Dior and I was my favorite documentary, but I know both of those categories have funny rules for the nomination process.

Marie: Don't be in such a hurry about that pretty little chippy in Frisco. Tony: Eh, she's a no chip!
#24

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 11:07am

"Boy, that's an awful lot of white people in the acting categories. Jesus H."

Yes, after last year's backlash with the lack of nominations for "Selma," I thought at least Idris Elba in "Beasts of No Nation" would be nominated for Supporting Actor. (or maybe Michael B. Jordan or Will Smith would sneak into the Lead Actor category)

I wonder if the host of the evening, Chris Rock, will mention anything about this in his opening monologue.

#25

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Posted: 1/14/16 at 11:16am

Looking at the nominations, I knew someone would say something like that. But the issue isn't "those awful white people" getting the nominations, the issue is lack of diversity in casting in films and in the stories that are out there getting made. So don't hate on the actors who were nominated because of the color of their skin.

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