2026 Tony Nomination Predictions - Page 4

[Amy Archer]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 7:40am

Not sure that Giant is such a strong contender for Best Play. It didn't get a Drama Desk nomination for the Play category. It could have gotten Best Foreign Play from the NY Drama Critics Circle, but it didn't. Voters can take care of it with an award for Lithgow. 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 7:49am

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories.

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions (Musicals)"

On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories.

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions (Plays)

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 8:09am

I don’t really see CATS breaking the record held by SOUTH PACIFIC. On its best night, maybe 5 or 6 wins, but LOST BOYS could win 2-3 design awards, orchestrations could go to the Score winner, and I’m just not sure about the two Featured categories.

On its very worst night it could win four (Revival, Director, Choreo, and Costumes).

Updated On: 5/4/26 at 08:09 AM

[Kad]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 9:37am

Hitting 12 nominations is hard for any revival but it’s harder still for Jellicle Ball since they are ineligible for an additional two categories, the leading performances. It would have to have a clean sweep of every other category plus at least 5 nominations in the two featured categories, which is certainly possible but I’m not sure is likely when there are actually a bunch of well-received performances in those categories this season. 
 

Ragtime is actually better positioned to walk away with the most nominations because it can compete in all four performance categories and the competition in technical categories is kind of weak, even if those were its least praised elements. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 9:52am

Kad said: "Ragtime is actually better positioned to walk away with the most nominations because it can compete in all four performance categories and the competition in technical categories is kind of weak, even if those were its least praised elements."

RAGTIME could get 4-5 acting noms and maybe 3 of the design categories, but I think it’s still a long shot for a nom in Choreo and Scenic (and of course its Orchestrations are not eligible). 9 to 10 noms feels like its ceiling. Which is maybe what CATS, LOST BOYS, and possibly SCHMIG get too.

Ellenore Scott might miss out on Choreo noms for both Ragtime and Titanique.

[Kad]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 10:15am

Typically, I'd be surprised by a production like Ragtime getting a choreo nod, but it's another thinner category this year. Jellicle, Chess, and Schmigadoon are all in by default as the dance-heavy shows of the season, leaving two slots up for grabs by productions that are not as choreography-forward. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 10:19am

Kad said: "Typically, I'd be surprised by a production like Ragtime getting a choreo nod, but it's another thinner category this year. Jellicle, Chess, and Schmigadoon are all in by default as the dance-heavy shows of the season, leaving two slots up for grabs by productions that are not as choreography-forward."

I honestly think PUNCH gets a choreography nomination. 

[Rentaholic2]

Posted: 5/4/26 at 11:04am

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Kad said: "Ragtime is actually better positioned to walk away with the most nominations because it can compete in all four performance categories and the competition in technical categories is kind of weak, even if those were its least praised elements."

RAGTIME could get 4-5acting noms and maybe 3 of the design categories, but I think it’s still a long shot for a nom in Choreo and Scenic (and of course its Orchestrations are not eligible). 9 to 10noms feels like its ceiling. Which is maybe what CATS, LOST BOYS, and possibly SCHMIG get too.

Ellenore Scott might miss out on Choreo noms for both Ragtime and Titanique."

 

I think Ragtime is all but a lock for four acting nominations (Caissie, Joshua, Nichelle, Ben), has a decent shot at five (Brandon), and there’s a world in which it gets six (if Shaina or Colin sneak in…not saying it’s likely, but crazier things have happened). Which makes me wonder if it’s possible it could actually win all four categories - it’s definitely the front runner for leading actor/actress, and the supporting categories feel wide open.  Has any musical ever done that?