Posted: 5/4/26 at 7:40am
Not sure that Giant is such a strong contender for Best Play. It didn't get a Drama Desk nomination for the Play category. It could have gotten Best Foreign Play from the NY Drama Critics Circle, but it didn't. Voters can take care of it with an award for Lithgow.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 7:49am
Jeffrey Karasarides said: "On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions (Musicals)"
On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions (Plays)
Posted: 5/4/26 at 8:09am
I don’t really see CATS breaking the record held by SOUTH PACIFIC. On its best night, maybe 5 or 6 wins, but LOST BOYS could win 2-3 design awards, orchestrations could go to the Score winner, and I’m just not sure about the two Featured categories.
On its very worst night it could win four (Revival, Director, Choreo, and Costumes).
Updated On: 5/4/26 at 08:09 AM
Posted: 5/4/26 at 9:37am
Hitting 12 nominations is hard for any revival but it’s harder still for Jellicle Ball since they are ineligible for an additional two categories, the leading performances. It would have to have a clean sweep of every other category plus at least 5 nominations in the two featured categories, which is certainly possible but I’m not sure is likely when there are actually a bunch of well-received performances in those categories this season.
Ragtime is actually better positioned to walk away with the most nominations because it can compete in all four performance categories and the competition in technical categories is kind of weak, even if those were its least praised elements.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 9:52am
Kad said: "Ragtime is actually better positioned to walk away with the most nominations because it can compete in all four performance categories and the competition in technical categories is kind of weak, even if those were its least praised elements."
RAGTIME could get 4-5 acting noms and maybe 3 of the design categories, but I think it’s still a long shot for a nom in Choreo and Scenic (and of course its Orchestrations are not eligible). 9 to 10 noms feels like its ceiling. Which is maybe what CATS, LOST BOYS, and possibly SCHMIG get too.
Ellenore Scott might miss out on Choreo noms for both Ragtime and Titanique.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 10:15am
Typically, I'd be surprised by a production like Ragtime getting a choreo nod, but it's another thinner category this year. Jellicle, Chess, and Schmigadoon are all in by default as the dance-heavy shows of the season, leaving two slots up for grabs by productions that are not as choreography-forward.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 10:19am
Kad said: "Typically, I'd be surprised by a production like Ragtime getting a choreo nod, but it's another thinner category this year. Jellicle, Chess, and Schmigadoon are all in by default as the dance-heavy shows of the season, leaving two slots up for grabs by productions that are not as choreography-forward."
I honestly think PUNCH gets a choreography nomination.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 11:04am
ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Kad said: "Ragtime is actually better positioned to walk away with the most nominations because it can compete in all four performance categories and the competition in technical categories is kind of weak, even if those were its least praised elements."
RAGTIME could get 4-5acting noms and maybe 3 of the design categories, but I think it’s still a long shot for a nom in Choreo and Scenic (and of course its Orchestrations are not eligible). 9 to 10noms feels like its ceiling. Which is maybe what CATS, LOST BOYS, and possibly SCHMIG get too.
Ellenore Scott might miss out on Choreo noms for both Ragtime and Titanique."
I think Ragtime is all but a lock for four acting nominations (Caissie, Joshua, Nichelle, Ben), has a decent shot at five (Brandon), and there’s a world in which it gets six (if Shaina or Colin sneak in…not saying it’s likely, but crazier things have happened). Which makes me wonder if it’s possible it could actually win all four categories - it’s definitely the front runner for leading actor/actress, and the supporting categories feel wide open. Has any musical ever done that?
Posted: 5/4/26 at 11:10am
It appears the only time that has happened was for the original production of South Pacific.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 12:28pm
Posted: 5/4/26 at 1:36pm
Time Out New York's (very questionable, and misleading) *TONY* nominations prediction list. (they choose what they think should be nominated for Tonys, not what they think will be nominated). Yeah...
https://www.timeout.com/newyork/theater/the-2026-tony-nominations
Posted: 5/4/26 at 1:47pm
CoffeeBreak said: "Time Out New York's (very questionable, and misleading) *TONY*nominations prediction list. (they choose what theythinkshouldbe nominated for Tonys, notwhat theythinkwillbe nominated). Yeah...
https://www.timeout.com/newyork/theater/the-2026-tony-nominations"
Fwiw they do this every year, and they don't refer to it as a predictions list, just a nominations list.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 4:21pm
Leading actress in a musical: Marla Mindelle, Jessica Vosk, Caissie Levy, Kristin Chenoweth, Sara Chase
Leading actress in a Play: Susana Flood, Rose Byrne, Kelli O’Hara, Leslie Manville, Carrie Coon
Posted: 5/4/26 at 10:33pm
I think it’s quite possible Laurie Metcalf and Joe Mantello could be nominated twice tomorrow. I know there wasn’t a lot of love for Queen of Versailles, but I think that Kristin Chenoweth and F. Murray Abraham gave comparable performances to many names that have been mentioned for those particular categories. Kristin basically carried the show on her back and Abraham playing the selfish and mentally abusive husband gave a three dimensional performance. I’m not feeling a lot of love for Schmigadoon, which to me was a bit lazy in many respects but I imagine it will get some nominations only because the straight play season was far superior to the musical season.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 10:37pm
I will eat a brick if F. Murray Abraham gets nominated tomorrow.
Posted: 5/4/26 at 11:04pm
Ptero2 said: "I will eat a brick if F. Murray Abraham gets nominated tomorrow."
I think you can have a regular breakfast after the highly anticipated announcements. I more or less was making an analogy about how weak the musical theater season was especially when it came to new musicals. So some people that will be nominated in the morning would not be nominated in a stronger season.
