2026 Tony Nomination Predictions - Page 3
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions
Broadway Legend Joined: 10/4/04
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #50
Posted: 5/3/26 at 11:46am
gibsons2 said: "n2nbaby said: "gibsons2 said: "KarenValentine'sheadband said: "IsLittle Bear Ridge Road not eligible?"
It is. It's just a god awful play that closed prematurely because nobody cared about it."
Also the best reviewed show on Broadway for the season, but pop off bruh."
WOM was lukewarm at best and it flopped because nobody wanted to buy a ticket for this show and die of boredom."
What is WOM??
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #51
Posted: 5/3/26 at 11:58am
Matt Rogers said: "What is WOM??"
Word of mouth
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #52
Posted: 5/3/26 at 12:34pm
Ptero2 said: "Anyone think Kelli O'Hara has a shot at a nom? They love nominating her almost as much as they love not giving her the trophy. It's been 22 years since the last time she missed a nomination (for Dracula, the Musical) and the last two slots in Leading Actress in a Play feel pretty wide open."
I think she has a shot, but with Byrne, Coon, Manville and Flood seeming almost assuredly, it really comes down to if they like Fallen Angels enough to nominate both of them (as I really don't see her getting in over Byrne). It feels like Metcalf is going to get that last spot to me, but it could go any way (Metcalf, O'Hara, Edebiri--I actually have a strange hunch Jean Smart could shock and get it as well).
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #53
Posted: 5/3/26 at 2:12pm
Ptero2 said: "Anyone think Kelli O'Hara has a shot at a nom? They love nominating her almost as much as they love not giving her the trophy. It's been 22 years since the last time she missed a nomination (for Dracula, the Musical) and the last two slots in Leading Actress in a Play feel pretty wide open."
When I left Oedipus, I thought for sure Manville had the lock on the Tony. Then two weeks after Bug when Coon's performance kept creeping back into my head, I thought the Tony belonged to her. Two weeks ago, I went to see Fallen Angels and just fell in love with Kelli's performance. I know I may be suffering from recency bias, but she completely goes against her grain and does things I have never seen her do. The comedic chops, oh my! So yes, not only do I think she will get a nom but I think she has a strong chance of winning.
Her My Life in the Theater released 5/1/26 on Playbill.com can only help:
https://youtu.be/kw8Uuf3XrfI?si=skMFo5ZoMC4a463R
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #54
Posted: 5/3/26 at 2:20pm
Ptero2 said: "Anyone think Kelli O'Hara has a shot at a nom? They love nominating her almost as much as they love not giving her the trophy. It's been 22 years since the last time she missed a nomination (for Dracula, the Musical) and the last two slots in Leading Actress in a Play feel pretty wide open."
She will absolutely get a nomination and absolutely not win. She should have several more Tonys imo...
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #55
Posted: 5/3/26 at 3:10pm
Kad said: "In terms of "surprises," I wouldn't be shocked to see:
Emma Sofia sneaking into Best Featured Actress in a Musical instead of Hannah Cruz or Nichelle Lewis. In an excellent cast, her Skimbleshanks stands out as one of the most memorable parts of the show. If the nominators really love Jellicle Ball, I could easily see her as part of that wave.
Max Clayton in Best Featured Actor in a Musical. Probably less of a surprise than the above, but he's a beloved performer and the narrative of a chorus member finally originating a principal role is great. It's a strong category in a weak year- we could see an expanded nominee list.
Tye Blue in Best Director of a Musical. I would not be surprised to see Michael Arden shut out this year and Tye Blue getting in, for successfully upscaling a very unlikely Broadway transfer.
you know what I definitely wanna be surprised come Tuesday and these seem like very likely surprises to happen...especially Max Clayton who I have in my predictions for Featured Actor in a Musical
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #56
Posted: 5/3/26 at 3:15pm
2026 Tony Awards Predictions in Every Category
https://variety.com/2026/legit/awards/2026-tonys-awards-predictions-1236735866/
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #57
Posted: 5/3/26 at 5:45pm
MezzA101 said: "2026 Tony Awards Predictions in Every Category
https://variety.com/2026/legit/awards/2026-tonys-awards-predictions-1236735866/"
One of their head-scratchers:
" Featured Actor (Play)
Christopher Abbott, “Death of a Salesman”
Danny Burstein, “Marjorie Prime”
Elliott Levey, “Giant”
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
Charlie Thurston, “Liberation”
Alternate: Alden Ehrenreich, “Becky Shaw”"
Haven't heard buzz about Charlie Thurston (no shade to him) but tons of buzz and acclaim for Alden Ehrenreich ...
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #58
Posted: 5/3/26 at 6:05pm
Their alternate for Best Musical is hilarious and ain't happening. And if they nominate QoV for anything (including costumes), I would be shocked.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/30/17
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #59
Posted: 5/3/26 at 6:07pm
Yeah. This one is wrong. Ehrenreich will be in. If anything, I'd rather Thurston in and Burstein out.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #60
Posted: 5/3/26 at 6:13pm
I think Two Strangers, Cats and Ragtime will get the bulk of the nominations.
Broadway Legend Joined: 9/20/18
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #61
Posted: 5/3/26 at 7:08pm
ACL2006 said: "I think Two Strangers, Cats and Ragtime will get the bulk of the nominations."
Disagree about Two Strangers - I think Lost Boys and Schmigadoon have a lot more “nominateable” elements. (Two Strangers still might be more likely to WIN Best Musical tho)
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #62
Posted: 5/3/26 at 8:11pm
This article is not well-researched, as it cites Stephanie Hsu playing Magenta in "Rocky Horror."
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #63
Posted: 5/3/26 at 8:15pm
ACL2006 said: "I think Two Strangers, Cats and Ragtime will get the bulk of the nominations."
This may sound somewhat ambitious predictions but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cats: The Jellicle Ball makes history and breaks the all-time record for most Tony nominations for a musical revival (which to this day remains held by the 2000 revival of Kiss Me, Kate with 12 nominations)
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #64
Posted: 5/3/26 at 8:22pm
malcs98 said: "ACL2006 said: "I think Two Strangers, Cats and Ragtime will get the bulk of the nominations."
This may sound somewhat ambitious predictions but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cats: The Jellicle Ball makes history andbreaks the all-time record for most Tony nominations for a musical revival (which to this day remains heldby the2000 revival of Kiss Me,Kate with 12 nominations)"
And then it breaks the all-time record for most Tony wins for a musical revival, when it vogues away with at least 8 prizes.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #65
Posted: 5/3/26 at 8:29pm
My only confident prediction is that CATS will eventually win every category it will be nominated for:
- Revival of a Musical
- Direction of a Musical
- Choreography
- Featured Actor in a Musical (André De Shields, Sydney James Harcourt, Dudney Joseph Jr.)
- Featured Actress in a Musical ("Tempress" Chasity Moore, Emma Sofia)
- Orchestrations
- Set Design of a Musical
- Costume Design of a Musical
- Lighting Design of a Musical
- Sound Design of a Musical
Understudy Joined: 2/29/24
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #66
Posted: 5/3/26 at 8:50pm
BEST MUSICAL
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
Ragtime
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Sarah Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titanique
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Max Clayton, Schmigadoon!
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Sydney James Harcourt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Dudney Joseph Jr., Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Layton Williams, Titanique
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
McKenzie Kurtz, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
“Temptress” Chasity Moore, Cats: The Jellice Ball
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Zhailon Levingston & Bill Rauch
Ragtime, Lear deBessonet
The Rocky Horror Show, Sam Pinkleton
Schmigadoon!, Christopher Gattelli
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Tim Jackson
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Death of a Salesman
The Lost Boys
The Queen of Versailles
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
Ragtime
Schmigadoon!
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
The Lost Boys
The Queen of Versailles
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
The Lost Boys
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
Ragtime
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
The Lost Boys
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show
Titanique
BEST PLAY
The Balusters
Giant
Liberation
Little Bear Ridge Road
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Marjorie Prime
Oedipus
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Namir Smallwood, Bug
Mark Strong, Oedipus
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Carrie Coon, Bug
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Laurie Metcalf, Little Bear Ridge Road
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Jessica Hecht, Dog Day Afternoon
Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
Cynthia Nixon, Marjorie Prime
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Death of a Salesman, Joe Mantello
Giant, Nicholas Hytner
Liberation, Whitney White
Marjorie Prime, Anne Kauffman
Odepius, Robert Icke
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
The Balusters
Death of a Salesman
Dog Day Afternoon
Fallen Angels
Waiting for Godot
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
The Balusters
Dog Day Afternoon
Fallen Angels
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Liberation
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Bug
Death of a Salesman
The Fear of 13
Oedipus
Punch
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Bug
Dog Day Afternoon
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Oedipus
Punch
Broadway Legend Joined: 9/20/18
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #67
Posted: 5/3/26 at 9:43pm
Bonnie17 said: "This article is not well-researched, as it cites Stephanie Hsu playing Magenta in "Rocky Horror.""
Clayton Davis of Variety is a film journalist based in LA. I'm not sure why they'd have him do predictions over critics who actually cover theatre for Variety - theatre is not his beat and it's unlikely he's seen many of the shows.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #68
Posted: 5/3/26 at 9:45pm
I've seen Jellicle Ball and I still had to Google "Dudney Joseph Jr" to see if that was a real person or you guys were just making him up.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #69
Posted: 5/3/26 at 10:04pm
EDSOSLO858 said: "malcs98 said: "ACL2006 said: "I think Two Strangers, Cats and Ragtime will get the bulk of the nominations."
This may sound somewhat ambitious predictions but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cats: The Jellicle Ball makes history andbreaks the all-time record for most Tony nominations for a musical revival (which to this day remains heldby the2000 revival of Kiss Me,Kate with 12 nominations)"
And then it breaks the all-time record for most Tony wins for a musical revival, when it vogues away with at least 8 prizes."
May I ask what currently holds the record for most Tony wins for musical revival?
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #70
Posted: 5/3/26 at 10:20pm
malcs98 said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "malcs98 said: "ACL2006 said: "I think Two Strangers, Cats and Ragtime will get the bulk of the nominations."
This may sound somewhat ambitious predictions but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cats: The Jellicle Ball makes history andbreaks the all-time record for most Tony nominations for a musical revival (which to this day remains heldby the2000 revival of Kiss Me,Kate with 12 nominations)"
And then it breaks the all-time record for most Tonywinsfor a musical revival, when it vogues away with at least 8 prizes."
May I ask what currently holds the record for most Tony wins for musical revival?"
The 2008 production of SOUTH PACIFIC, with 7.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #71
Posted: 5/3/26 at 10:49pm
EDSOSLO858 said: "And then it breaks the all-time record for most Tonywinsfor a musical revival, when it vogues away with at least 8 prizes."
May I ask what currently holds the record for most Tony wins for musical revival?"
The 2008 production of SOUTH PACIFIC, with 7."
Thanks, yeah the odds of cats making Tony history seems very highly possible at this point
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/28/05
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #72
Posted: 5/4/26 at 12:02am
EDSOSLO858 said: "My only confident prediction is that CATS will eventually win every category it will be nominated for:
- Revival of a Musical
- Direction of a Musical
- Choreography
- Featured Actor in a Musical (André De Shields,Sydney James Harcourt, Dudney Joseph Jr.)
- Featured Actress in a Musical ("Tempress" Chasity Moore,Emma Sofia)
- Orchestrations
- Set Design of a Musical
- Costume Design of a Musical
- Lighting Design of a Musical
- Sound Design of a Musical
"
Deservedly so.
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #73
Posted: 5/4/26 at 6:34am
Do we think Liberation is the front runner for Best Play?
2026 Tony Nomination Predictions #74
Posted: 5/4/26 at 7:34am
Fred Mason said: "Do we think Liberation is the front runner for Best Play?"
It's a true battle between it and Giant. I'm leaning towards Giant because a) recency bias and b) how timely and relevant it is and therefore the emotional impact it is making on the voters. But Liberation could definitely win.
I also would not completely rule out a late surge by The Balusters. It's extremely well liked among the NY theatre crowd and there's also a bit of a sense among industry folks that Lindsay-Abaire is overdue for a Tony (a Best Play Tony, I mean--he won for Book of a Musical but his plays have never won). I still think it's between the other two, but this could be a real spoiler.
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