2026 Tony Nomination Predictions — Page 2

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#26

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 4:05pm

malcs98 said: "Mr. Wormwood said: "malcs98 said: "Also does everyone think Chess is gonna get completely shut out?"

Nicholas Christopher feels like a near-lock now that the category has 5 slots. Lea Michele seems very likely too.

I also have it for Sound, Orchestrations and Featured Actress (Hannah Cruz) though I'm far less sure about those three."

So best revival feels like a long shot?"

I wouldn't say "long shot" but I predicted Rocky Horror instead

#27

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 4:54pm

Although it would make sense on paper, I would be surprised if QoV gets in for costumes: it's an open secret that William Ivey Long was brought on to do uncredited work.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

#28

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 5:51pm

Kad said: "Although it would make sense on paper, I would be surprised if QoV gets in for costumes: it's an open secret that William Ivey Long was brought on to do uncredited work."

Would that make William Ivey Long eligible though???

#29

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 6:03pm

malcs98 said: "Kad said: "Although it would make sense on paper, I would be surprised if QoV gets in for costumes: it's an open secret that William Ivey Long was brought on to do uncredited work."

Would that make William Ivey Long eligible though???"

No. Uncredited work is not eligible.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

#30

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 7:08pm

Kad said: "No. Uncredited work is not eligible."

Just because uncredited work is ineligible does that necessarily mean they have a chance at getting nominated?

#31

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 7:20pm

malcs98 said: "Kad said: "No. Uncredited work is not eligible."

Just because uncredited work is ineligible does that necessarily mean they have a chance at getting nominated?"

I believe that's what Kad's referring to. The open secret of him being brought bottomed out their chances because he's a pariah.

#32

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 7:27pm

malcs98 said: "Kad said: "No. Uncredited work is not eligible."

Just because uncredited work is ineligible does that necessarily mean they have a chance at getting nominated?"

You’re missing the point. Uncredited work in writing and design is common and hasn’t affected nominations or wins in the past. That they chose the disgraced Long to do it is the issue.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

Updated On: 5/2/26 at 07:27 PM

#33

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 7:47pm

I do wonder if people who perform for a living and know how complicated the score of Chess is ( Lea has said its more challenging vocally than Funny Girl because of the constant switching of genres she has to do, Aaron has joked when he was at college nobody ever chose to sing from Chess as it was too complicated) might have some more appreciation when nominating the likes of Lea and even Hannah and Aaron than some here who seem to not value a vocal performance in a role ( i happen to think their acting is excellent too) when its for a performance in a MUSICAL not a play.

#34

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 7:56pm

GirlFromOz68 said: "I do wonder if people who perform for a living and know how complicated the score of Chess is ( Lea has said itsmore challenging vocally than Funny Girl because of the constant switching of genres she has to do, Aaron has joked when he was at college nobody ever chose to sing from Chess as it was too complicated) might have some more appreciation when nominating the likes of Lea and even Hannah and Aaron than some here who seem to not value a vocal performance in a role ( i happen to think their acting is excellent too) when its for a performance in a MUSICAL not a play."

Oh yeah, I’ve tried singing these songs and let me tell you it is one of the hardest sings.

#35

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 8:17pm

malcs98 said: "GirlFromOz68 said: "I do wonder if people who perform for a living and know how complicated the score of Chess is ( Lea has said itsmore challenging vocally than Funny Girl because of the constant switching of genres she has to do, Aaron has joked when he was at college nobody ever chose to sing from Chess as it was too complicated) might have some more appreciation when nominating the likes of Lea and even Hannah and Aaron than some here who seem to not value a vocal performance in a role ( i happen to think their acting is excellent too) when its for a performance in a MUSICAL not a play."

Oh yeah, I’ve tried singing these songs and let me tell you it is one of the hardest sings."

also just last season you can't tell me Nicole won the Tony over Audra for her acting performance. I didn't get to see either performance beyond a few online clips but Nicole seemed to be favoured for her vocal performance and Audra for her acting.

I still think Caissie will likely win due to her character's storyline and her acting in that, but I dont think Lea should be counted out for a nomination at the very least, and not just due to residual goodwill for her performance in FG or the fact that she's been responsible for two box office hits in recent years, which also brings goodwill.

#36

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 8:31pm

I’d be surprised if QOV gets any nominations. A lean year doesn’t mean the Tonys hand out slots by default just for showing up. Harmony ran longer than QOV and still didn’t get a single nod. And last season there were 13 eligible shows that walked away with zero nominations. The committee has no problem leaving categories partially empty when the work isn’t competitive.

#37

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 8:34pm

GirlFromOz68 said: "malcs98 said: "GirlFromOz68 said: "I do wonder if people who perform for a living and know how complicated the score of Chess is ( Lea has said itsmore challenging vocally than Funny Girl because of the constant switching of genres she has to do, Aaron has joked when he was at college nobody ever chose to sing from Chess as it was too complicated) might have some more appreciation when nominating the likes of Lea and even Hannah and Aaron than some here who seem to not value a vocal performance in a role ( i happen to think their acting is excellent too) when its for a performance in a MUSICAL not a play."

Oh yeah, I’ve tried singing these songs and let me tell you it is one of the hardest sings."

also just last season you can't tell me Nicole won the Tony over Audra for her acting performance. I didn't get to see either performance beyond a few online clips but Nicole seemed to be favoured for her vocal performance and Audra for her acting.

I still think Caissie will likely win due to her character's storyline and her acting in that, but I dont think Lea should be counted out for a nomination at the very least, and not just due to residual goodwill for her performance in FG orthe fact that she's been responsible for two box office hits in recent years, which also brings goodwill."

I mean I think we overestimate the goodwill Lea has for Funny Girl. That was 5 years ago at this point? I have no idea what her reputation is in the industry at this point, but that plays a part in a lot of this as well. Also, I’d compare Nik Christopher to what Nicole was doing last year as far as insane vocal technique and acting through song. Lea I think has gotten better as the run has gone on, but it’s still a pretty one note performance and I think most of that can be blamed on the book.

Also re box office. Denzel and Jake Gyllenhaal were crushing the box office last year and Othello was shut out. So I wouldn’t look much into that.

Updated On: 5/2/26 at 08:34 PM

#38

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 9:03pm

pmensky said: "I’d be surprised if QOV gets any nominations. A lean year doesn’t mean the Tonys hand out slots by default just for showing up. Harmony ran longer than QOV and still didn’t get a single nod. And last season there were 13 eligible shows that walked away with zero nominations. The committee has no problem leaving categories partially empty when the work isn’t competitive."

Definitely possible and I have Beaches getting shut out with the same rationale. But both have a pretty decent chance in Score because they are competing against plays for the last two slots after Two Strangers, Schmigadoon and Lost Boys. While we could see two plays round out the category, I think at least one will get in there (I'm predicting QoV because I think they'll be fine giving SS a nod even for a bad show).

And to be clear, they don't "leave a category partially empty." There are rules about number of nominations per category and that number can be exceeded with ties but not decreased.

Updated On: 5/2/26 at 09:03 PM

#39

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 9:22pm

goodtimes123 said: "GirlFromOz68 said: "malcs98 said: "GirlFromOz68 said: "I do wonder if people who perform for a living and know how complicated the score of Chess is ( Lea has said itsmore challenging vocally than Funny Girl because of the constant switching of genres she has to do, Aaron has joked when he was at college nobody ever chose to sing from Chess as it was too complicated) might have some more appreciation when nominating the likes of Lea and even Hannah and Aaron than some here who seem to not value a vocal performance in a role ( i happen to think their acting is excellent too) when its for a performance in a MUSICAL not a play."

Oh yeah, I’ve tried singing these songs and let me tell you it is one of the hardest sings."

also just last season you can't tell me Nicole won the Tony over Audra for her acting performance. I didn't get to see either performance beyond a few online clips but Nicole seemed to be favoured for her vocal performance and Audra for her acting.

I still think Caissie will likely win due to her character's storyline and her acting in that, but I dont think Lea should be counted out for a nomination at the very least, and not just due to residual goodwill for her performance in FG orthe fact that she's been responsible for two box office hits in recent years, which also brings goodwill."

I mean I think we overestimate the goodwill Lea has for Funny Girl. That was 5 years ago at this point? I have no idea what her reputation is in the industry at this point, but that plays a part in a lot of this as well. Also, I’d compare Nik Christopher to what Nicole was doing last year as far as insane vocal technique and acting through song. Lea I think has gotten better as the run has gone on, but it’s still a pretty one note performance and I think most of that can be blamed on the book.

Also re box office. Denzel and Jake Gyllenhaal were crushing the box office last year and Othello was shut out. So I wouldn’t look much into that."

Funny Girl ended September 2023, Less than 3 years ago. Her reputation amongst every one she has worked with at FG and Chess is excellent.

Updated On: 5/2/26 at 09:22 PM

#40

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 10:36pm

Jessica Vosk has best actress in a musical in the bag.

#41

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 11:32pm

DrMonicaDeMoneco said: "Jessica Vosk has best actress in a musical in the bag."

In Jan Maxwell's bag?

#42

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 11:36pm

DrMonicaDeMoneco said: "Jessica Vosk has best actress in a musical in the bag."

Security will make her give it back to Caissie Levy.

#43

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/2/26 at 11:54pm

Best Musical
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Best Revival of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show

Lead Actor in a Musical
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers...
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime or Aaron Tveit, Chess

Lead Actress in a Musical
Sarah Chase, Schmigadoon!
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Lea Michele, Chess
Marla Mindelle, Titanique
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers...

Featured Actor in a Musical
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Junior LaBeija or Sydney James Harcourt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Layton Williams or Jim Parsons, Titanique

Featured Actress in a Musical
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
McKenzie Kurtz or Anna Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
Tempress Chastity Moore, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Direction of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Schmigadoon!
The Rocky Horror Show
Two Strangers...

Original Score
Death of a Salesman
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Book of a Musical
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers...

Choreography
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
Schmigadoon!
The Rocky Horror Show

Scenic Design of a Musical
The Lost Boys
The Queen of Versailles
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Costume Design of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers...

Lighting Design of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
The Rocky Horror Show
Two Strangers...

Sound Design of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Orchestrations
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Best Play
The Balusters
Giant
Little Bear Ridge Road
Liberation
Punch

Best Revival of a Play
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Marjorie Prime
Oedipus

Lead Actor in a Play
Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus

Lead Actress in a Play
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Laurie Metcalf, Little Bear Ridge Road

Featured Actor in a Play
Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman
Ben Ahlers, Death of a Salesman
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Elliot Levey, Giant
Ruben Santiago-Hudson or Joshua Boone, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Featured Actress in a Play
Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Kayla Cash, Giant
Linda Emond, Becky Shaw
Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime

Direction of a Play
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Liberation
Oedipus

Scenic Design of a Play
Death of a Salesman
The Ballusters
Bug
Fallen Angels

Waiting for Godot

Costume Design of a Play
Death of a Salesman
Dog Day Afternoon
Fallen Angels
Liberation
Oedipus

Lighting Design of a Play
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Oedipus
Punch
Waiting for Godot

Sound Design of a Play
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Oedipus
Punch

Nomination Totals:
11 nominations: Death of a Salesman, Two Strangers (Carry A Cake Across New York), SchmigadoonI
10 nominations: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
8 nominations: The Rocky Horror Show
7 nominations: Oedipus, Ragtime, Chess
6 nominations: Titanique
6 nominations: Bug
5 nominations: Liberation, Becky Shaw
4 nominations: Punch, Giant, The Lost Boys
2 nominations: Little Bear Ridge Road, Marjorie Prime, The Ballusters, Fallen Angels, Waiting for Godot, The Queen of Versailles.
1 nomination: Dog Day Afternoon, Every Brilliant Thing, Joe Turner's Come and Gone
0 nominations: Art, The Fear of 13, Beaches, Call Me Izzy, Mamma Mia

Updated On: 5/2/26 at 11:54 PM

#44

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/3/26 at 12:03am

Best featured actor in a play will be a fight to the death between Christopher, Alden and Ruben. I would not nominate Sarah Chase for Best Actress in a musical. While looking for love in the enchanted village I was hoping she would stumble upon a character and forgo setting up punch lines. Lacking chemistry with her male partner, she looked bored to death when she wasn’t speaking and lacked a romantic and hopeful quality.

The best musical category is weak this year. I can see why the New York critics did not come up with a winner in that category.

#45

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/3/26 at 2:58am

Anyone think Kelli O'Hara has a shot at a nom? They love nominating her almost as much as they love not giving her the trophy. It's been 22 years since the last time she missed a nomination (for Dracula, the Musical) and the last two slots in Leading Actress in a Play feel pretty wide open.

#46

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/3/26 at 9:33am

Ptero2 said: "Anyone think Kelli O'Hara has a shot at a nom? They love nominating her almost as much as they love not giving her the trophy. It's been 22 years since the last time she missed a nomination (for Dracula, the Musical) and the last two slots in Leading Actress in a Play feel pretty wide open."

I’ve been wondering this myself since the conventional wisdom is that Byrne is getting the nomination. I actually thought Kelli was better than Byrne but I do think the nominating committee may want to give a nod to a well known film actor giving a very strong performance.

#47

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/3/26 at 10:11am

CoffeeBreak said: "Best Musical
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Best Revival of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show

Lead Actor in a Musical
Nicholas Christopher,Chess
Luke Evans,The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry,Ragtime
Sam Tutty,Two Strangers...
Brandon Uranowitz,Ragtimeor Aaron Tveit,Chess

Lead Actress in a Musical
Sarah Chase,Schmigadoon!
Caissie Levy,Ragtime
Lea Michele,Chess
Marla Mindelle,Titanique
Christiani Pitts,Two Strangers...

Featured Actor in a Musical
Ali Louis Bourzgui,The Lost Boys
Andre De Shields,Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Junior LaBeija orSydney James Harcourt,Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ben Levi Ross,Ragtime
Layton Williams or Jim Parsons,Titanique

Featured Actress in a Musical
Shoshana Bean,The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz,Chess
McKenzie Kurtzor Anna Gasteyer,Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis,Ragtime
Tempress Chastity Moore,Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Direction of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Schmigadoon!
The Rocky Horror Show
Two Strangers...

Original Score
Death of a Salesman
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Book of a Musical
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers...

Choreography
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
Schmigadoon!
The Rocky Horror Show

Scenic Design of a Musical
The Lost Boys
The Queen of Versailles
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Costume Design of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
TheRocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
Titanique
Two Strangers...

Lighting Design of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
The Rocky Horror Show
Two Strangers...

Sound Design of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Rocky Horror Show
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Orchestrations
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Chess
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Two Strangers...

Best Play
The Balusters
Giant
Little Bear Ridge Road
Liberation
Punch

Best Revival of a Play
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Marjorie Prime
Oedipus

Lead Actor in a Play
Will Harrison,Punch
Nathan Lane,Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow,Giant
Daniel Radcliffe,Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong,Oedipus

Lead Actress in a Play
Rose Byrne,Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon,Bug
Susannah Flood,Liberation
Lesley Manville,Oedipus
Laurie Metcalf,Little Bear Ridge Road

Featured Actor in a Play
Christopher Abbott,Death of a Salesman
Ben Ahlers, Death of a Salesman
Alden Ehrenreich,Becky Shaw
Elliot Levey,Giant
Ruben Santiago-Hudson or Joshua Boone, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Featured Actress in a Play
Betsy Aidem,Liberation
Kayla Cash, Giant
Linda Emond, Becky Shaw
Laurie Metcalf,Death of a Salesman
June Squibb,Marjorie Prime

Direction of a Play
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Liberation
Oedipus

Scenic Design of a Play
Death of a Salesman
TheBallusters
Bug
Fallen Angels

Waiting for Godot

Costume Design of a Play
Death of a Salesman
Dog Day Afternoon
Fallen Angels
Liberation
Oedipus

Lighting Design of a Play
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Oedipus
Punch
Waiting for Godot

Sound Design of a Play
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Oedipus
Punch

Nomination Totals:
11nominations: Death of a Salesman,Two Strangers (Carry A Cake Across New York),SchmigadoonI
10 nominations:Cats: The Jellicle Ball
8 nominations:The Rocky Horror Show
7 nominations: Oedipus,Ragtime,Chess
6 nominations: Titanique
6 nominations:Bug
5 nominations:Liberation,Becky Shaw
4 nominations:Punch,Giant,The Lost Boys
2 nominations:Little Bear Ridge Road,Marjorie Prime, The Ballusters,Fallen Angels, Waiting for Godot, The Queen of Versailles.
1 nomination:Dog Day Afternoon, Every Brilliant Thing,Joe Turner's Come and Gone
0 nominations:Art, The Fear of 13,Beaches, Call Me Izzy, Mamma Mia"

There are going to be 4 nominees (at least) for Best Musical and Book and 5 for Director, Choreography and Score per Tonys rules just so you know...

Updated On: 5/3/26 at 10:11 AM

#48

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/3/26 at 11:03am

Yes. I did know this. When deciding, these were the ones worthiest. I may add in some filler noms, at some point.

#49

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/3/26 at 11:45am

On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories.

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions (Musicals)

#50

2026 Tony Nomination Predictions

Posted: 5/3/26 at 11:45am

In terms of "surprises," I wouldn't be shocked to see:

Emma Sofia sneaking into Best Featured Actress in a Musical instead of Hannah Cruz or Nichelle Lewis. In an excellent cast, her Skimbleshanks stands out as one of the most memorable parts of the show. If the nominators really love Jellicle Ball, I could easily see her as part of that wave.

Max Clayton in Best Featured Actor in a Musical. Probably less of a surprise than the above, but he's a beloved performer and the narrative of a chorus member finally originating a principal role is great. It's a strong category in a weak year- we could see an expanded nominee list.

Tye Blue in Best Director of a Musical. I would not be surprised to see Michael Arden shut out this year and Tye Blue getting in, for successfully upscaling a very unlikely Broadway transfer.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

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