Actress Predictions - 2024 Tonys

Respectfully, Beth isn't getting nominated with the amount she has to do in Lempicka.

Yeah, I’d replace Ruff or Leavel with Shoshana Bean in Hell’s Kitchen. I also feel like The Cottage will be forgotten but am not sure if I know who might sneak into those spots. Will be especially eager to see how the Vanya cast does.

bigbelterbaby said: "Lead Actress - Musical

• Kelli O’Hara - Days of Wine and Roses
• Eden Espinosa - Lempicka
• Maleah Joi Moon - Hells Kitchen
• Joy Woods - The Notebook
• Gayle Rankin - Cabaret"

^Is the consencus that Joy Woods is leading? I would've thought supporting, but I could see either way. If not her, maybe Eva Noblezada? The girl from the Wiz?


"Lead Actress - Play

• Sarah Paulson - Appropriate
• Jessica Lange - Mothers Play
• Amy Ryan - Doubt
• Rachel McAdams - Mary Jane
• Laura Bell Bundy - The Cottage"

^This feels about right. Though personally I'd love to see either Metcalf or Maslany get in for Grey House. Also, I guess we don't know yet if Celia Keenan-Bolger is lead or featured for Mother Play -- could change the equation.


Featured Actress - Musical

• Maryann Plunkett - The Notebook
• Bebe Neuwirth - Cabaret
• Kecia Lewis - Hells Kitchen
• Alison Ruff - The Who’s Tommy
• Beth Leavel - Lempicka

^You forgot Lindsey Mendez!!! I haven't seen Lempicka or Tommy so I can't speak to those, but I'd love to see Grace McLean get in for Suffs. And wouldn't it be great if Jennifer Simard got in for Once Upon a One More Time? A guy can dream!



Featured Actress - Play

• Francis Benhamou- Prayer For The French Republic
• Kara Young - Purlie Victorious
• Natalie Gold - Appropriate
• Dana Steingold - The Cottage
• Sarah Pidgeon - Stereophonic

Agreed on Benhamou, Young, and Pidgeon. They all feel pretty strongly positioned. Surprised to see the other 2 on your list though...

Natalie Gold was great, but I found it to be one of the less memorable roles in that show (comparatively -- in a row full of memorable roles).

Don't count out Allison Pill for Uncle Vanya. Despite being a sort of co-leading role, Sonya has historically gone featured. And it's a hell of a role -- every time I've seen Uncle Vanya I've left thinking about the Sonya performance.

I'm seeing Doubt this weekend, and I've never seen the play or the film before. But do we think Kazan or Bernstine stand a chance? I think Bernstine is one of the finest actors in NYC.

Also, I wish we could see one of the Jaja women get in. I'd be happy with almost any of them, but my pick would probably be Zenzi Williams.

Updated On: 3/18/24 at 07:34 PM

I believe the number of eligible actresses will lead to only four Lead Actress in a Play nominees. My current predictions (likely to change before May) are:

Lead Actress in a Musical
Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook (if she's moved to lead, otherwise I'd go with Shaina Taub)
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret

Featured Actress in a Musical
Nikki M. James, Suffs (Maryann Plunkett or Joy Woods here instead if they are Featured)
Leslie Kritzer, Spamalot
Kecia Lewis, Hell's Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret

Lead Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Anika Noni Rose, Uncle Vanya
Amy Ryan, Doubt

Featured Actress in a Play
Frances Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic
Elle Fanning, Appropriate
Jayne Houdyshell, Uncle Vanya
Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

bigbelterbaby said: "The role of Mrs. Walker is historically nominated. Ann Margret was nominated for an Oscar for the film and it was also nominated in the 90s. We will see!”

I think if any performances in Tommy are nominated, it’s more likely to be Ali Louis Bourzgui.

“Eva Noblezada is an alternative for me. People have mentioned Lindsey Mendez attendance being bad but that might not affect a nomination so much as a win.”


Her attendance has improved significantly (I believe she’s back to all 8/week) and I still think she’s the one to beat


I” think Joy Woods makes more sense in lead and it gives MaryAnn the chance to potentially win in Featured. Will be interesting to see what the committee decides.”

Can I ask why you say this? Plunkett by far seems like the leading performance in The Notebook to me. She’s present in the storytelling from beginning to end, while Woods’s role gains importance/presence around halfway through. I’d be surprised if Woods ends up being petitioned up/ruled leading.

Joy Woods was nominated for - and won - a Jeff Award in the supporting actress category for the world premiere at Chicago Shakespeare, for what it's worth.

Regarding Uncle Vanya, Anika Noni Rose and Allison Pill's roles are both more supporting than leading, but could go either way really, since despite the title, the play is really an ensemble piece.

While I recognize many on this board are mixed about the performances themselves, I think we should be prepared that Merrily may likely swipe three Best Featured Actress nominations (Mendez, Clarke, and Brown)

It's the juggernaut, folks.

While Clarke delivers a heartbreaking "Not a Day Goes By" - Beth is a bland and underwritten character. Gussie is a larger/more developed role, but an unlikeable character. I would be surprised if either get in, although I enjoyed both of their portrayals.

Grace McLean should be included in everyones featured, might be the sleeper hit.

ljay889 said: "While Clarke delivers a heartbreaking "Not a Day Goes By" - Beth is a bland and underwritten character. Gussie is a larger/more developed role, but an unlikeable character. I would be surprised if either get in, although I enjoyed both of their portrayals."

If Gabrielle can snag the nomination, I don’t see why Brown can’t. However, I do concede that Gabrielle’s Gussie was far richer, nuanced, and overall heartbreaking in her own unique way.


However, the sentiment of my post is more that I feel we’re all underestimating how much better received Merrily is compared to this really, really crappy crop of new musicals and revivals- and I think that may shine through come nominations, even if a few are a little head scratchy.

getatme said: "Cannot imagine a world where Katie Rose Clarke and/or Krystal Joy Brown are nominated."

I don't even want to imagine it. I honestly thought both were not just weak, but godawful.

I’m hanging my hat on Featured Actress - Play is Kara Young’s to lose. This is going to be her third nomination in a row in this category and I cannot imagine they aren’t going to recognize her for what was an electric performance.

Additionally, it would make her:

- the fourth actress to be nominated for Tonys in three consecutive years (Chita Rivera, Martha Plimpton, and Judith Light)

- the second actress to be nominated in that category (as well as the same category) three times in a row (after Judith Light)

- the first African American woman to be nominated three times in a row in ANY category.