Adam Driver - Lead Actor

Saw Adam Driver the other night in Burn This and he was mesmerizing. He commanded the stage. He's also gotten similar buzz from what I've seen on social media. Wondering what everyone thinks regarding his chances at a Tony for lead actor? He's got tough competition in Jeff Daniels, Bryan Cranston etc...

I fear Michael Urie will be forgotten and it breaks my heart.

Luke Mosseau said: "Wondering what everyone thinks regarding his chances at a Tony for lead actor?"

If he's nominated? 20 percent.

JSquared2 said: "haterobics said: "Luke Mosseau said: "Wondering what everyone thinks regarding his chances at a Tony for lead actor?"

If he's nominated? 20 percent."

Incorrect. It's be 20% only if they were picking the winner out of a hat. Would you say that HAMILTON only stood a 20% chance of winning Best Musical because it was 1 of 5 nominated shows?

Of course, you are right re your Hamilton analogy. The difference, of course, was that it was a juggernaut. No matter what reviews Driver gets, he can never be a juggernaut, because his competition already includes at least two performances that would be juggernauts in most seasons. You add the likes of the other actors / performances and some of the reviews that they already received, not to mention the ones to come, and Haterobics is much more accurate than your assessment.

Kimbo said: "IdinaBellFoster said: "I fear Michael Urie will be forgotten and it breaks my heart."

Urie will almost certainly not be nominated.

In a year with thus many performances, any that are not running will be at a disadvantage. For that reason, I even think Paddy Considine is now slightly more of a long-shot, having left the production nearly 5 months before the awards.

If I had to guess right now I’d say Cranston, Daniels, Driver, Lane, and PROBABLY Considine... (though you’ve forgotten Bertie Carvel, the true lead of “Ink”, despite winning supporting actor at the Oliviers).

I could revise that opinion further if prior Tony winners Tracy Letts or John Lithgow wind up getting sensational reviews. (Or if perennial Tony darling Lane surprisingly gets bad ones). But Pope, Urie, and the always-worthy (and never-nominated) Parsons will likely all be also-rans this year."

Having seen both Hillary and Gary, I would definitely put Lithgow in over Lane- his verbal fireworks with Metcalf are incredible and very funny. I sour on Gary the farther I get from it- the set and dance number are great, but Lane and Nielsen are working with some pretty thin material.

Not that I don't love quality performances by celebrity juggernauts, but man wouldn't it be something spectacular if somehow Pope and Urie both got in! Their performances would certainly warrant it.

My dream world would be Pope, Urie, Cranston, Considine, and Lithgow, though I know that won't happen.

Hell, I thought Bobby Cannivale and Daniel Radcliffe were both flawless in Lifespan of a Fact! I wish this wasn't such a crowded year - too many really fantastic performances are going to go unrecognized.

Kimbo wrote in part: "In a year with thus many performances, any that are not running will be at a disadvantage. For that reason, I even think Paddy Considine is now slightly more of a long-shot, having left the production nearly 5 months before the awards.


Staff and cast members at theater told me the equity rules only permitted the Irish/Brit cast to stay for 6 months so they had to leave to be replaced w/an American cast. Only 3 remained and one will leave in April. (Maggie Far Away played by Fionnula Flanagan). I don't know if they had the option to join Equity.

At this point, I have no idea which five will end up making the final lineup. If any acting category could use a tie this year to warrant an additional nomination, this would have to be it.

I’d say Bryan Cranston and Jeff Daniels are both locks. Interestingly enough, they’re both Emmy winners taking on Oscar-winning characters. Early reports for Burn This have been strong for Adam Driver’s performance, same for John Lithgow’s in Hillary & Clinton. Paddy Considine may no longer be in The Ferryman, though he could still remembered based on how strong of a contender it is for Best Play. If Lucas Hedges gets in, that could be a sign of how strong The Waverly Gallery is for Best Play Revival. While I do have Nathan Lane getting in based on early reports for Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus, I wonder if given all the contenders there are this season, that the nominating committee might just snub him like they did with Audra McDonald in Shuffle Along. Jeremy Pope could be helped by his presence this season not only with Choir Boy, but he’s also now in Ain’t Too Proud. We’ve seen that kind of visibility factor help Christian Borle, Jefferson Mays, and Mary Beth Peil receive nominations two years ago. Given how Torch Song pretty much lost momentum with its premature closing, I would not be surprised to see Michael Urie forgotten.

Updated On: 3/28/19 at 07:27 PM

This will all change once the final reviews come in, but I would say the current rankings are

Locks for a nomination: Cranston and Daniels

Most likely: Driver and Considine

Possible contenders for spot #5 (or #6): Letts, Pope, Miller, Parsons

I don't think anyone else has a chance to move past these 8 contenders unless Letts and Miller are disappointing in their roles.

There is typically a prejudice towards currently running shows, but I think Lithgow will be moved down (or just overshadowed by Metcalf's larger role), and it sounds like Lane is predictably good but not doing something special that will get him a nomination against this tough competition.

I think The Ferryman's status as co-front-runner with Mockingbird for general acclaim will bring Considine a nomination. Otherwise, I think Pope and Parsons are the only candidates from closed shows to have a chance to get nominated.