BEST ACTOR in a Musical Predictions

[Robbie2]

Posted: 4/5/19 at 9:51pm

What are we thinking...Here's my 5:

• Santino Fontana - Tootsie
• Damon Daunno - Oklahoma
• Brooks Ashmanskas - The Prom 
• Will Chase - Kiss Me Kate
• Derrick Baskin - Ain't Too Proud

 

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 4/5/19 at 11:13pm

Would Patrick Page count as leading Actor for Hadestown?

[CedricOates]

Posted: 4/5/19 at 11:38pm

Alex Kulak2 said: "Would Patrick Page count as leading Actor forHadestown?"

I don’t think so. He doesn’t say a word until 33 minutes into the first act. Then doesn’t appear again until @ 42 minutes for Chant and Hey Little Songbird, and Why We Build a Wall to float Act 1. I think total time for the first Act he’s on stage for less than 20 minutes. Act 2 he’s featured more but Reeve Carney is clearly the lead for Hadestown. 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/6/19 at 7:39am

Those will be the nominees unless Alex Brightman manages to get in over Derrick Baskin. I'll be curious to see how they rule on Reeve. If he's leading, I say he gets the fifth slot only because the committee will look to nominate Hadestown everywhere it can.  Either way, this is Santino's to lose. In fact, I'm pretty confident that this is the easiest acting award to predict.

Updated On: 4/7/19 at 07:39 AM

[Wick3]

Posted: 4/6/19 at 8:03am

I know each season is different and it all depends on the actor but in recent years it seems like Tony voters loved the leading actor in the musical that wins best musical or best musical revival (i.e. Tony Shalhoub, Ben Platt, Leslie Odom Jr, Michael Cerveris, Neil Patrick Harris, Billy Porter, Steve Kazee)

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/6/19 at 9:53am

Wick3 said: "I know each season is different and it all depends on the actor but in recent years it seems like Tony voters loved the leading actor in the musical that wins best musical or best musical revival (i.e. Tony Shalhoub, Ben Platt, Leslie Odom Jr, Michael Cerveris, Neil Patrick Harris, Billy Porter, Steve Kazee) "

I feel like all of those can be explained. Last year there wasn't a heavy frontrunner, so Shaloub got swept up in The Band's Visit's wave. Ben Platt was easily the best reviewed musical performance of that season. Leslie Odom Jr was well received but also... Hamilton.  Cerveris received love letters from almost everyone. NPH won the minute that revival was announced. The two tightest races on your list were actually the ones from longest ago.  Kazee was in a race with Danny Burstein for Follies, which had long since closed. And Billy Porter was in a race with Bertie Carvel (who absolutely should have been in the featured category rather than leading). I don't think the correlation is as strong as you seem to think. Like would you any that any of those winners were particularly undeserved? The only one I could make an argument for would be Odom Jr, but that's because I thought Berstein's Tevye was phenomenal. He was never going to win though.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/6/19 at 11:04am

There definitely has been a strong correlation between actor and musical (or revival) recently (10 of the last 11, with the only miss being Book of Mormon, where Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells likely split the vote).  There's also been a strong connection between Book and Musical (9 of the past 10, including "upsets" of Band's Visit over Mean Girls and Dear Evan Hansen over Come From Away).  So not to get off topic, but, if we all seem mostly to be predicting Santino for Actor and Tootsie for Book....perhaps Tootsie is a real threat for Best Musical after all?  (Or, conversely, perhaps Hadestown is a real threat for Book (can't say Reeve Carney stands a chance, but who knows)).

[Wick3]

Posted: 4/6/19 at 3:08pm

bjh2114 said: "Wick3 said: "I know each season is different and it all depends on the actor but in recent years it seems like Tony voters loved the leading actor in the musical that wins best musical or best musical revival (i.e. Tony Shalhoub, Ben Platt, Leslie Odom Jr, Michael Cerveris, Neil Patrick Harris, Billy Porter, Steve Kazee) "

I feel like all of those can be explained. Last year there wasn't a heavy frontrunner, so Shaloub got swept up in The Band's Visit's wave. Ben Platt was easily the best reviewed musical performance of that season. Leslie Odom Jr was well received but also... Hamilton. Cerveris received love letters from almost everyone. NPH won the minute that revival was announced. The two tightest races on your list were actually the ones from longest ago. Kazee was in a race with Danny Burstein for Follies, which had long since closed. And Billy Porter was in a race with Bertie Carvel (who absolutely should have been in the featured category rather than leading). I don't think the correlation is as strong as you seem to think. Like would you any that any of those winners were particularly undeserved? The only one I could make an argument for would be Odom Jr, but that's because I thought Berstein's Tevye was phenomenal. He was never going to win though."

It was just an observation. I’d say last year a lot of people were surprised Shalhoub won over Slater (Spongebob) since Slater won drama desk and outer critics awards leading up to the Tonys. There are tons of discussion about that in other threads.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/7/19 at 5:14pm

^Yes but Shaloub wasn't eligible for the OCC or the Drama Desk last year since The Band's Visit was off-Broadway in 2017. So while some people may have predicted Slater to win the Tony based on his other wins, he wasn't a frontrunner necessarily when it came to the Tonys. There have been MANY examples of Tony winners in recent memory not winning winning Drama Desks or OCCs in the same season because of their shows being eligible in previous seasons. Ben Platt, Leslie Odom Jr, Michael Cerveris, Daveed Digs, Christian Borle (for Peter and the Starcatcher) Rachel Bay Jones, Katrina Lenk, Alice Ripley, and Nina Arianda are ALL examples of that from just the last 10 years. And in most of those cases, those winners weren't considered surprises or upsets.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 5:35am

Here is my current predicted lineup:

Brooks Ashmanskas-The Prom
Derrick Baskin-Ain’t Too Proud
Reeve Carney-Hadestown
Damon Daunno-Oklahoma!
Santino Fontana-Tootsie

Updated On: 4/8/19 at 05:35 AM

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 10:34am

I'm conflicted for this one! WIth Santino, Damon, and Brooks being 100% in. I originally thought Derrick and Will Chase would join them, but with all the Hadestown hype (coupled with KMK's general forgettability) I think Reeve might knock Will out. I think if Reeve isn't called out for his vocals in any major review I'll make this change.  

[fashionguru_23]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 11:25am

I'm really feeling Derrick Basin for Ain't Too Proud. To me, he carries the entire show. I feel as if his nomination is one in which the real award is the nomination and his truly deserves it. 

[BroadwayGuy12]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 11:59am

I thought Will Chase was a true bright spot in Kiss Me, Kate, so I'm really hoping to see him nominated.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/8/19 at 12:05pm

For nominations, Im guessing: 

Derrick Baskin

Santino Fontana

Brooks Ashmanskas 

Will Chase 

Damon Daunno. 

 

I think Damon will win, my guess is either Hadestown or Oklahoma will be the best reviewed musicals of the season, and I expect many awards to go their way. 

[uncageg]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 1:06am

After tonight, I Take Baskins, who I love, off and put in Brightman. Saw Beetlejuice tonight and he was wonderful.

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 3:49pm

Wouldn't Brooks A. be better (and better off) in featured...I would imagine he'd have a great chance of winning in featured).  The Prom really is an ensemble show; I don't see anyone being lead, all are featured IMO.  Frequently, featured performers get nominated in lead to fill-up the category.  Don't see that here.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 3:54pm

Jarethan said: "Wouldn't BrooksA. be better (and better off)in featured...I would imagine he'd have a great chance of winning in featured). The Prom really is an ensemble show; I don't see anyone being lead, all are featured IMO. Frequently, featured performers get nominated in lead to fill-up the category. Don't see that here."

The Tony nominators have already met about and discussed THE PROM, Their determination was:

• Brooks Ashmanskas, Beth Leavel and Caitlin Kinnunen will each be considered eligible in the Best Performance by an Actor/Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical categories for their respective performances in The Prom.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 4:02pm

I haven’t seen Tootsie, Hadestown, or Kiss Me Kate yet. But I saw Oklahoma last week and honestly can’t stop thinking about Damon Daunno. I feel like Curly is usually pretty blah on paper, and yet he created such a nuanced, memorable character. Right now he easily gets my vote. (My totally irrelevant unofficial vote, haha.)

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 4:04pm

Thanks, didn't know that.  I still personally would prefer that he be placed in featured, where I do believe he would have an excellent chance of winning.  I enjoyed The Prom, but was disappointed, mainly by the score ad choreography, which I thought was cheesy; butI definitely think he was the best thing about the show, along with the book, which was hilarious.

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 4:41pm

I had the time of my life at The Prom and loved Brooks Ashmaskas' performance, but I think overall the musical is too fluffy to get any Tony awards. It's a shame because I really enjoyed the musical and thought the book was one of the funniest in years.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 5:10pm

poisonivy2 said: "I think overall the musical is too fluffy to get any Tony awards."

Eh... I don't know. Plenty of fluff has been rewarded through the years (I do think The Prom is more than fluff FWIW), and I feel like Tony voters love a good self-indulgent show about Broadway. 

I mean, going category by category I'm not sure it's an obvious frontrunner anywhere, but I think it has a solid chance of picking up an award or two. Pending reviews of what hasn't yet opened (namely Tootsie in this category), I think Brooks Ashmanskas has a reasonable chance of being one of them. I think he wouldn't necessarily be the expected choice, but I also think a lot people would be satisfied with him winning. Most of the reviews called him out as a highlight of the show. 

 

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 5:34pm

I expect The Prom to get a whole bunch of nominations but no wins. It’s sad but I think it will be the unofficial runner up in best musical and best book. I just don’t think it can beat out Hadestown. Brooks blew me away when I saw it. I’m a Beth Leavel fan so I expected her to be my favorite but his Barry was flawless. Not sure it’s a big enough role to win unfortunately.

[woeisme3]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 6:31pm

Could The Prom get choreography? I don't really know who the strong contenders are there but it's dance-heavy and we know Tony voters love Casey Nicholaw.

i agree that it will likely be Ashmankas/Baskin/Chase/Daunno/Fontana, with an outside chance of Reeve Carney. There are a lot of people both here and other places who are saying Alex Brightman was straight up bad so I don't think he'll get in based on that. The only other real possibility is WIll Roland if the nominators love Be More Chill, but I don't want to speak that into existence.

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 6:58pm

woeisme3 said: "Could The Prom get choreography? I don't really know who the strong contenders are there but it's dance-heavy and we know Tony voters love Casey Nicholaw.

i agree that it will likely be Ashmankas/Baskin/Chase/Daunno/Fontana, with an outside chance of Reeve Carney. There are a lot of people both here and other places who are saying Alex Brightman was straight up bad so I don't think he'll get in based on that. The only other real possibility is WIll Roland if the nominators love Be More Chill, but I don't want to speak that into existence."

I think choreography would face some stiff competition from Warren Carlyle in Kiss Me Kate.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/9/19 at 8:07pm

woeisme3 said: "Could The Prom get choreography? I don't really know who the strong contenders are there but it's dance-heavy and we know Tony voters love Casey Nicholaw."

It'll get nominated, but I don't see it winning. Warren Carlyle will win #2, for great work and no real competition.

I wouldn't say Tony voters love Casey Nicholaw. He actually has a weird track record at the Tonys: he has 6 noms for Choreography and 4 noms for Directing, but his only win is for co-directing Book of Mormon.