Some initial thoughts and reactions by category:
Musical
American Utopia isn't a musical.
Mrs Doubtfire and Mr Saturday Night getting in over Paradise Square is a bit surprising, but I guess the Drabinsky antipathy is stronger than I expected. Frankly, I think Intimate Apparel and Black No More were both better pieces than either of them as well.
(As previously mentioned in this thread) Very interesting that A Strange Loop and Six were nominated again, while Girl from the North Country was not.
Glad to see The Hang and Oratorio for Living Things sneak in. I didn't see The Hang but heard great thing about it. Oratorio was one of my favorite recent theatre experiences.
Play
Same confusion about The Lehman Trilogy and Dana H being repeat nominees (see also for colored girls...). Also confused as to why Skeleton Crew is being considered a revival, given that the original off-Broadway production was only in 2016, and it retained its director and the majority of its creative team.
But overall I think this is a solid group of shows. I wouldn't have minded seeing Letters of Suresh, Sanctuary City, Is This a Room, or Pass Over on the list, particularly over Merry Wives (which wasn't a revival?). But no major issues with the chosen batch.
Play/Musical Revival
Yeah, no real quibbles here either other than the miscategorization of Skeleton Crew as a revival. Twilight: Los Angeles, 1992 was great, but I wouldn't have gone out on a limb for it.
Play/Musical Direction
Stephen Brackett's exclusion is a travesty.
Michael Mayer's inclusion is a travesty.
Jerry Zaks's inclusion is a surprise.
Wouldn't have minded seeing Jessica Stone (Kimberly Akimbo) or Lileana Blain-Cruz (Skin of our Teeth) in the mix.
Distinguished Performance
Perplexing Inclusions
Shoshana Bean
Beanie Feldstein
Adrianna Hicks
Brittney Mack
Surprise (yay!) inclusions
Gabby Beans
Rachel Dratch
L Morgan Lee
Cecily Strong
Michelle Wilson
Surprise Exclusions
Kara Young (Clyde's) & Jordan Cooley (Kimberly Akimbo), but it seems like they're excluded due to caps on nominations from any individual productions.
No one from The Minutes or Hangmen.
No one from Flying Over Sunset
If I had to make predictions now, I'd say:
Play - The Lehman Trilogy
Play Revival - How I Learned to Drive
Musical - A Strange Loop (with Six right behind)
Musical Revival - Company
Play Director - Sam Mendes
Musical Director - Marianne Elliott
Distinguished Performance (Top 3 Contenders):
Sharon D. Clarke, David Morse, Deirdre O'Connell
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If we map these onto potential Tony Categories:
Musical Actor
Billy Crystal
Myles Frost
Hugh Jackman (ineligible)
Rob McClure
Jaquel Spivey
Musical Actress
Sharon D. Clarke
Beanie Feldstein
Sutton Foster
Adrianna Hicks
Joaquina Kalukango
Brittney Mack
Musical Featured Actor
Matt Doyle
Musical Featured Actress
Shoshana Bean
L Morgan Lee
Patti LuPone (ineligible)
Jane Lynch
Play Actor
Simon Russell Beale
David Morse
Ruben Santiago-Hudson
Jesse Williams
Play Actress
LaChanze
Deirdre O'Connell
Mary-Louise Parker (ineligible)
Sarah Jessica Parker
Play Featured Actor
Jesse Tyler Ferguson
Ron Cephas Jones
Play Featured Actress
Uzo Aduba
Gabby Beans (unless she's in lead)
Rachel Dratch
Kenita R. Miller
Phylicia Rashad
Julie White (unless she's in lead)