None of This Year’s Best Musical Nominees Are Likely to Recoup- Page 2

[Huss417]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 10:19am

Owen22 said: "Oh my god this subjectively speculative post has upset the Maybe Happy Ending stans. The worst part of Broadway World is how these silly over-the-top fans (and yes I know a good deal of posters on this site are actually children) makes me sometimes dislike a show I originally believed to be sweet and fun and nice."

I'm concerned you are hearing and seeing things in this thread that don't exist. You might want to have a professional check that out.

Updated On: 5/21/25 at 10:19 AM

[Owen22]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 12:09pm

Kad said: "Owen22 said: "Oh my god this subjectively speculative post has upset the Maybe Happy Ending stans. The worst part of Broadway World is how these silly over-the-top fans (and yes I know a good deal of posters on this site are actually children) makes me sometimes dislike a show I originally believed to be sweet and fun and nice. "

There is absolutely no such behavior in this thread right now."

And there ya go.

[Owen22]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 12:10pm

Huss417 said: "Owen22 said: "Oh my god this subjectively speculative post has upset the Maybe Happy Ending stans. The worst part of Broadway World is how these silly over-the-top fans (and yes I know a good deal of posters on this site are actually children) makes me sometimes dislike a show I originally believed to be sweet and fun and nice."

I'm concerned you are hearing and seeing things in this thread that don't exist. You might want to have a professional check that out."

I'm so sorry I upset you.

[Bwaygurl2]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 12:16pm

Owen22 said: "Huss417 said: "Owen22 said: "Oh my god this subjectively speculative post has upset the Maybe Happy Ending stans. The worst part of Broadway World is how these silly over-the-top fans (and yes I know a good deal of posters on this site are actually children) makes me sometimes dislike a show I originally believed to be sweet and fun and nice."

I'm concerned you are hearing and seeing things in this thread that don't exist. You might want to have a professional check that out."

I'm so sorry I upset you."

They don't seem upset to me. 

[Kad]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 12:17pm

You've upset nobody, you've just confused us and derailed a discussion by reacting to something that wasn't happening and then being smug about it. If your goal was a self-own, then mission accomplished, I guess.

[Owen22]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 1:03pm

Kad said: "There is absolutely no such behavior in this thread right now."

Sorry, Kad. That retort wasn't meant for you.  But I will argue this:  When I read that article I though, "uh oh.  He shouldn't have mentioned Maybe Happy Ending in it.  That will bring out those harpy MHE stans..."  And maybe one sees what they look for...but even though there were five shows mentioned in that post, the people who came to defend were mostly the Maybe Happy Ending people. Of course.  A nice little show that is by no means (IMO) anywhere near as good as some of those mentioned (or some not even nominated). And obviously, it isn't just this particular post I'm thematically referencing.

You come to these forums for different reasons. Information. Reviews. Gossip. But sometimes I come here to just scream at the Void.  And at the theatre fans I believe are lowering our standards bit by bit.  But again, that is just my opinion.

[RussT2]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 1:13pm

OPERATION: MINCEMEAT has been extended til Feb 2026. If they weren't doing steady business I doubt they would have done that.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 1:14pm

Owen22 said: "Kad said: "There is absolutely no such behavior in this thread right now."

Sorry, Kad. That retort wasn't meant for you. But I will argue this: When I read that article I though, "uh oh. He shouldn't have mentioned Maybe Happy Ending in it. That will bring out those harpy MHE stans..." And maybe one sees what they look for...but even though there were five shows mentioned in that post, the people who came to defend were mostly the Maybe Happy Ending people. Of course. A nice little show that is by no means (IMO) anywhere near as good as some of those mentioned (or some not even nominated). And obviously, it isn't just this particular post I'm thematically referencing.

You come to these forums for different reasons. Information. Reviews. Gossip. But sometimes I come here to just scream at the Void. And at the theatre fans I believe are lowering our standards bit by bit. But again, that is just my opinion."

Sounds like you have more feelings about MHE that you need to work through than the so-called stans you are going after. Literally no one has been nonsensical or fanboying/fangirling about MHE in this thread. People made the point that it *could* recoup and it could, especially with a Best Musical win. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 1:17pm

RussT2 said: "OPERATION: MINCEMEAT has been extended til Feb 2026. If they weren't doing steady business I doubt they would have done that."

Oh God, Here come those annoying Mincemeat stans.... jk :)

Mincemeat has been holding steady so we'll see but I'd be surprised if it makes it all the way to Feb

[ACL2006]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 1:21pm

Even if Maybe Happy Ending wins Best Musical, I think Death Becomes Her ends up running the longest. The role of Viola can be given to any name that can sing the role. I don't see either Hilty or Simard doing their respective roles longer than a year. So it'll be interesting to see who replaces those two.

[Huss417]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 2:58pm

Owen22 said: "Huss417 said: "Owen22 said: "Oh my god this subjectively speculative post has upset the Maybe Happy Ending stans. The worst part of Broadway World is how these silly over-the-top fans (and yes I know a good deal of posters on this site are actually children) makes me sometimes dislike a show I originally believed to be sweet and fun and nice."

I'm concerned you are hearing and seeing things in this thread that don't exist. You might want to have a professional check that out."

I'm so sorry I upset you."

Not sure how you think I'm upset by my post as it was addressing the issue You were talking about that wasn't happening here. 

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 3:11pm

Owen said: "uh oh.  He shouldn't have mentioned Maybe Happy Ending in it.  That will bring out those harpy MHE stans..."  And maybe one sees what they look for...but even though there were five shows mentioned in that post, the people who came to defend were mostly the Maybe Happy Ending people. Of course.  A nice little show that is by no means (IMO) anywhere near as good as some of those mentioned (or some not even nominated)." 

Where are these "harpy MHE stans" you are referring to? I just see people enjoying the show and wanting to express that. It seems the Maybe Happy Ending haters such as yourself are far louder and much more condescending ("a nice little show) than the fans could possibly be. 

Updated On: 5/21/25 at 03:11 PM

[Wick3]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 3:34pm

Call_me_jorge said: "I hear you — some of these shows have been holding steady at the box office lately. But the reality is, that stability is largely propped up by awards season buzz and short-term curiosity. Once the Tonys pass and that momentum fades, many of these productions will be facing an uphill battle. They’ll no longer be the shiny new thing and will be forced to compete with the juggernauts like Wicked, The Lion King, and Hamilton for the tourist dollar — a fight most shows simply can’t win without major stars or long-term word-of-mouth appeal. We've seen this pattern before: a post-Tony drop-off is very real, and without consistent, widespread demand, even a few decent months don’t guarantee long-term financial health."

True. I think that normally happens once new shows in the 2025-2026 season starts opening. I'll admit amongst my friends we don't really talk about wanting to see Hell's Kitchen or The Outsiders anymore.

[darquegk]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 4:02pm

A day or two later, I'm still wondering if this season will bear fruit in terms of a show that lingers in the consciousness and the canon or not. I'm leaning towards yes.

Dead Outlaw is never gonna be a superstar, but it strikes me as the kind of show that smaller theatres, colleges and more adventurous indie companies are going to put up frequently when it goes into licensing.

Death Becomes Her will almost certainly tour; like the more popular Beetlejuice, it'll be tricky to license due to the high level of special effect and stunt trickery involved. But it's also maybe the first Broadway meme musical, more famous for its social media content than for the show itself. (It's probably the second meme musical after the Starkid show Firebringer; millions more people have heard the "I don't really wanna do the work today" viral sound than have even heard of the musical itself.)

Operation Mincemeat is a tricky one: it's a small show written and performed by its creators. Does it tour with them? Does it have replacements, or is the troupe itself the show? Similarly, do you license a show like that, and do people actually produce it if you do? For every Tick Tick Boom, there's an Everyday Rapture. (These same questions apply double to Just in Time, which is at a weird space between a book musical and a Jonathan Groff concert.)

Maybe Happy Endings is the show that I think stands the greatest chance of fading into a footnote, which sucks because it's one of the best ones. From a production standpoint it's a bit of an odd-duck: all-Asian cast of not only gifted musical theatre performers but physical performers (almost requiring mime skills), a chamber show in cast but a spectacle in terms of tech and budget. It's a brilliant piece of work but might struggle to find its niche post-tour, and may well be remembered for a great cast recording but not for having legs beyond its run. That said, with the boom in musical theatre in Seoul, I could very well see this being the South Korean "Fantasticks" and running for ages in a theatre custom built for it, possibly even doing the English and Korean-language versions in rep.

[Kad]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 4:07pm

I could see Mincemeat living on in licensing, joining shows like The 39 Steps, Mystery of Irma Vep, The Big Bang, Murder for Two- aka, "a few people doing lots of roles in a silly show". 

[darquegk]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 4:17pm

I love shows like that, and I definitely think there's a market for it, unless the creatives think of it as "their material" associated with their performers, the way Starkid don't license most of their shows and Monty Python only licenses one of theirs (and currently only to schools).

[OhHiii]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 4:20pm

RussT2 said: "OPERATION: MINCEMEAT has been extended til Feb 2026. If they weren't doing steady business I doubt they would have done that."

Oy, that's really not what on sale windows indicate at all.

[binau]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 4:28pm

OhHiii said: "RussT2 said: "OPERATION: MINCEMEAT has been extended til Feb 2026. If they weren't doing steady business I doubt they would have done that."

Oy, that's really not what on sale windows indicate at all."

Yes, Redwood for example announced they were 'extending' in late March until August only to post a closing notice a month later for Mid-May lol. 
 

[ColorTheHours048]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 5:00pm

darquegk said: "I love shows like that, and I definitely think there's a market for it, unless the creatives think of it as "their material" associated with their performers, the way Starkid don't license most of their shows and Monty Python only licenses one of theirs (and currently only to schools)."

Considering it’s still running in London without the original cast, and has plans to tour both the US and UK seemingly without them, that does not appear to be the case.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 5:01pm

I think there's a case to be made for Mincemeat doing such a long extension rather than a more modest 3 month extension, which could say something about the strength of its sales (or it could also be testing the waters, who knows).  At least in my circles, it seems to have GREAT word of mouth, though I'm also curious if it keeps extending past the original cast whether attendance would drop off, but it seems like their departure hasn't affected the popularity of the show all that much in London.

[Timon3]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 5:40pm

It’s mad to suggest that because of a show lacks a star name it is going to struggle to recoup. Bette Midler’s in Hello Dolly didn’t recoup until after Bette departed and that was hitting $3m a week.

Then on Operation Mincemeat you say that the leads housing in NYC would contribute to the shows demise. As the leads are creatives, they’re likely to be producers so it is in their interests to keeps costs low. I wouldn’t think a apartment would cost more than $5k a week, so the apartment costs would be roughly $25k a week, it not less.

 Show that can pull $800k from the small Golden theatre is doing reasonably well. I wouldn’t be surprised if OM costs much more than $500-600k a week to run.

I would be more worried for Cabaret or Stranger Things, both shows haven’t announced a tour where to money is really made.

 

 

[bear88]

Posted: 5/22/25 at 4:16am

Call_me_jorge said: "I hear you — some of these shows have been holding steady at the box office lately. But the reality is, that stability is largely propped up by awards season buzz and short-term curiosity. Once the Tonys pass and that momentum fades, many of these productions will be facing an uphill battle. They’ll no longer be the shiny new thing and will be forced to compete with the juggernauts like Wicked, The Lion King, and Hamilton for the tourist dollar — a fight most shows simply can’t win without major stars or long-term word-of-mouth appeal. We've seen this pattern before: a post-Tony drop-off is very real, and without consistent, widespread demand, even a few decent months don’t guarantee long-term financial health."

My quarrel with your argument, which may turn out to be correct, is that it places more emphasis on ‘awards season buzz and short-term curiosity’ than I think is justified. Dead Outlaw just opened, got glowing reviews and a bunch of Tony nominations and the box office response has been decidedly tepid thus far. That’s cause for concern.

But every other nominated musical has been around for a while and two of them opened last fall. There is lots of data to analyze, and the musicals have either been steady performers or seen box office improvements (with a recent bump, probably due to Tony nominations and publicity). The shows are filling theaters, with the average ticket price increasing steadily.

I have been a little surprised by the strength of Buena Vista Social Club but its numbers are terrific. That suggests there’s more of an audience for this show than either one of us may have expected. When in doubt, trust the numbers.

One of the nominees is going to win Best Musical. We have learned that’s not a magical cure for a struggling show but Maybe Happy Ending and Death Becomes Her (and even Operation Mincemeat if it pulls off an upset) would get a boost when MHE and DBH are already making $1 million per week or more. Death Becomes Her, a commercial comedy, is filling one of Broadway’s larger theaters. I’m not sure that fades fast even if it doesn’t take the top prize for the same reason the road producers like it. Comedy sells right now.

Maybe Happy Ending is the biggest wild card. I guessed previously on another thread that it would win Best Musical. If that happens, the show will get a boost that will draw more tourists, the lifeblood of any musical that lasts. MHE has its critics, but it’s a comfortable, family-friendly musical, albeit with serious, dark themes, that plenty of tourists would enjoy - if they bother to see it. The comparison, whether meant as praise or criticism, to some of Pixar’s better films is accurate. And those movies did great business.

I’m no expert on running costs and capitalization and the depressing business realities of trying to make money with a new Broadway musical. It’s a tough business. It might get tougher if the economy turns further south and tourists, foreign and domestic, stay away. If so, you will definitely be right about the fate of this year’s nominated musicals - just for a different reason.

Updated On: 5/22/25 at 04:16 AM

[jimmycurry01]

Posted: 5/22/25 at 8:01am

ElephantLoveMedley said: "The ChatGPT usage is coming in hot on this thread..."

That was my first thought when reading this. This reeks of AI.

[verywellthensigh]

Posted: 5/22/25 at 9:01am

[Timon3]

Posted: 5/22/25 at 4:10pm

I am no expert on capitalisation, but I wonder a show like Mincemeat, BVSC and MHE, which are in very small houses. So you cannot have big running costs, maybe $500k a week? So I wonder how much these small shows would spend on advertising? With Mincemeat they only have a cast of 5 and would have thought stagehands wouldn’t be that big, as there is hardly any scenery changing? It also has a very small orchestra. So thinking with Mincemeat the stage wage costs maybe $100k a week?