None of This Year’s Best Musical Nominees Are Likely to Recoup

I agree with you broadly but Death Becomes Her is doing ok business and it feels like a Tony could turn it into a hit for a few years. Maybe not recoup but close.

A Tony to Maybe Happy Ending feels like it would be A Strange Loop and Kimberly Akimbo all over again. Also, unlike A Strange Loop and Kimberly, Maybe Happy Ending is doing good business so no one needs to feel they need to vote to save the artistry.

Death Becomes Her feels like a crowd pleaser that’s well crafted enough not to embarrass the Tonys if it won but not isolating to audiences and can tour. If the Best Musical Tony feels too far out of touch with the mass public it loses relevance.

I’m not saying these are good reasons for Death Becomes Her winning or even a likely outcome, I just am starting to feel maybe the Best Musical Tony is also more competitive than I first thought.

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 04:34 PM

I hear you — some of these shows have been holding steady at the box office lately. But the reality is, that stability is largely propped up by awards season buzz and short-term curiosity. Once the Tonys pass and that momentum fades, many of these productions will be facing an uphill battle. They’ll no longer be the shiny new thing and will be forced to compete with the juggernauts like Wicked, The Lion King, and Hamilton for the tourist dollar — a fight most shows simply can’t win without major stars or long-term word-of-mouth appeal. We've seen this pattern before: a post-Tony drop-off is very real, and without consistent, widespread demand, even a few decent months don’t guarantee long-term financial health.

Sunset Blvd in its original Broadway production never made its costs back and ended up deeply in the red despite Glenn Close selling out every performance for 8 months.

Jerome Robbins Broadway never fully recouped its costs since it was too expensive to produce and run.

The 1967-68 season in which Hallelujah Baby won the Tony, none of the musicals recovered their costs -- Golden Rainbow, Happy Time, How Now Dow Jones, Darling of the Day, Education of Hyman Kaplan, Here';s Where I Belong, I'm Solomon .... even George M! closed at a loss. Hair opened after the season ended, and it made millions, but it belongs to the next "season".

I am sure others can come up with other seasons where none of the musicals made back their production costs.

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 05:15 PM

merle57 said: "The 1967-68 season in whichHallelujah Baby won the Tony, none of the musicals recovered their costs -- Golden Rainbow, Happy Time, How Now Dow Jones, Darling of the Day, Education of Hyman Kaplan, Here';s Where I Belong, I'm Solomon .... even George M! closed at a loss. Hair opened after the season ended, and it made millions, but it belongs to the next "season".



Maybe it's related and maybe it's not, but I DO have to note that not a single show on that list of eligible "best musicals" has made it into the canon, or even into the vernacular. I actually had to pull up a list to see how often a year bears no lasting fruit, and it's less than you'd think: since 1968, we've had dry years in 1970, 1974, 1978, 1989 and 2000. Every other year either nominated a show that routinely gets produced to this day, or at least a show that didn't have legs but is still very much in the conversation due to its original production. (Don't get me wrong, there were some fantastic shows in those fallow years, but they just aren't perennial favorites.)

Sauja said: "I mean...we don't know what we don't know, but Buena Vista is doing GREAT business and this,"the show itself hasn’t captured the tourist or theatergoing public’s imagination" seems like pure speculation at best. Suggesting that it's only succeeding because of awards season feels specious.

And as hard of a time as Maybe Happy Ending had getting going, it's been improving and improving and improving. A few sizable Tony wins could then very well give it enough added oomph to develop even stronger legs. I'm not ready to write any of these shows off yet, but especially not those two."

It's hard to say. Most of these show are large with cast and crew. MHE is deceptive. Small cast but the backstage force is large and capitalized INITIALLY (before others came into the picture in fall) at almost 20 million it's now closer to 30.

DBH has a good shot at maintaining a crowd. It's word of mouth is the best in town right now and with summer tourists looking for an IP they know. DBH is sneaking up on the Tony with voters and may indeed pull an Outsiders this year - which went into award night the least positively reviewed of the 5 nominees.

Artistically all 5 shows offer some great theater for different people. This year, in most all categories, being nominated is winning.

I don’t know enough about capitalization and running costs for the five shows (except for the rather eye-popping number for Death Becomes Her) to say anything definitive but the only nominated musical of the five that’s clearly underperforming is Dead Outlaw. One of the reasons I was so determined to see it on my trip in April is that I wondered if the quirky show would survive until my next visit.

As others have said, I’m not sure what more could be asked of Buena Vista Social Club, with its steadily climbing grosses and average ticket price. Maybe it collapses after a few months, but there’s no sign of that. It’s getting stronger.

Maybe Happy Ending got off to a notoriously slow start, and people here were predicting its doom for months before and after it opened. I am sure it lost a fair amount of money during that time, but look at it now. Sold out, $1 million box office. Critical favorite.

Operation Mincemeat isn’t a box office smash, but it shouldn’t be that expensive to run and its average ticket price is holding up along with the box office in a small theater.

Death Becomes Her does have high capitalization, but it’s got movie money behind it and comes close to filling a large theater every night. The box office has perked up lately.

All of these shows have something in common. No big stars. Shoot, the shaky attendance of the DBH stars may matter here, but it’s not hurting the box office.

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 07:41 PM

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Jorge, all you've done is make a bunch of baseless conclusions based on speculation and opinion, and in most cases you've ignored the actual evidence of the box office receipts. Ridiculous."

Rule of thumb- for most shows figure a million dollars per week “all in”, meaning inclusive of theatre rent percentage and minimum royalties (above weekly running costs).

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Nobody should be jumping for joy and planning their retirement off this show yet. But it's a heck of a lot better than where things looked to be in November.It already seems far more resilient and crowd-pleasing than KIMBERLY and STRANGE LOOP (which both had premises that couldn't be easily explained to to the masses), you can take teens/kids,and it has greater potential on the road, internationally, and on screen.

Maybe Happy Ending, just by the numbers, has established that it is more appealing to the masses than A Strange Loop and Kimberly Akimbo ever were, even after they won Best Musical. A Strange Loop was never going for that, and Kimberly Akimbo never really caught on.

MHE felt different, even noticing other people’s responses in the theater. The themes are more universal, and the show already has proven it can draw an audience in another country.

While the Best Musical award is obviously a boost, it’s not a cure-all. I wonder what happens to the runners-up.

My impression is that Buena Vista Social Club has been the least affected by reviews or nominations - although its nominations definitely seemed to help. It might not win the top prize next month but still be helped by a good performance at the ceremony.

Death Becomes Her may have gotten the biggest boost from its nominations, perhaps because it draws some extra tourists and gives the imprimatur of a good show and not just a funny one based on an old movie. It should be OK because it’s a big comedy.

I still think a win is most important for Maybe Happy Ending. The show, by its nature, is less likely to have the Tony Awards performance that people will be buzzing about the next day, especially when you factor in the revivals. It needs to be regarded as the must-see new show from this season.

It would be even more helpful for Dead Outlaw so more people will check it out, but I don’t think that is likely. Same with Operation Mincemeat, though it has done better at the box office.

Oh my god this subjectively speculative post has upset the Maybe Happy Ending stans. The worst part of Broadway World is how these silly over-the-top fans (and yes I know a good deal of posters on this site are actually children) makes me sometimes dislike a show I originally believed to be sweet and fun and nice.

If you go over to the Broadway Reddit? Sure, they pretend like it’s the only show on Broadway (alongside Hadestown). On here…I’m not seeing it.