None of This Year’s Best Musical Nominees Are Likely to Recoup

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 4:07pm

As we gear up for the 2025 Tony Awards, there’s an uncomfortable reality that even a shiny Best Musical trophy may not fix: none of this year’s nominees seem likely to recoup their initial Broadway investments.

Buena Vista Social Club: While the title carries global music recognition, the show itself hasn’t captured the tourist or theatergoing public’s imagination. Lacking major stars, strong narrative momentum, or a must-see spectacle, its appeal is mostly limited to world music fans. In a market driven by word-of-mouth and branding, that’s not enough. Even a Tony win wouldn’t change the fact that this is a hard sell to the average Broadway audience.

Dead Outlaw: An experimental folk-noir piece about a preserved corpse touring the country? Brilliantly original, but commercially fraught. Its dark humor, niche storytelling, and nontraditional soundscape limit its appeal. Touring potential is minimal, merch is nonexistent, and the subject matter doesn’t invite repeat viewings. A win might boost critical cachet, but not enough to fill a large theater eight times a week.

Death Becomes Her: On paper, this should have been the commercial frontrunner — it’s a cult classic film adaptation with big stars and flashy effects. But tepid reviews and middling word-of-mouth have stunted momentum until the Tony nominations came out. The high running costs, plus a reliance on premium pricing that’s now unsustainable without raves, mean even a win is unlikely to reverse its financial trajectory. It may run for a bit on name recognition, but it would need to run for at least 3 years and I can't see lasting past a first replacement cast. Recoupment just seems out of reach.

Maybe Happy Ending: This tender robot love story has won hearts, but not box office battles. With no stars, a quiet tone, and a genre-bending concept, it struggles to compete in a marketplace that favors spectacle and recognizable IP. It’s the kind of show that might flourish Off-Broadway or regionally — but Broadway economics demand scale, and this show doesn’t have it. A Tony win might help with licensing and long-term life, but not immediate financial payoff.

Operation Mincemeat: A massive hit in London, this historical comedy musical has not made the same impact stateside. Its dense, rapid-fire satire and World War II British references haven’t landed as cleanly with New York audiences. Its offbeat charm might earn it a cult following — and possibly a win — but without sustained ticket demand or mainstream buzz, it's hard to imagine a path to profitability in the U.S. market. It also can't be cheap providing NYC housing for 5 of its cast members.

Which begs the question: Has there ever been a Broadway season where none of the Best Musical nominees recouped?
It would be a remarkable (and troubling) first. Even in weaker seasons, one show usually breaks through (Memphis, Once, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder). But 2025 could mark a historic moment — a Tony race where artistic merit is high, but not a single nominee ends up in the black.

[binau]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 4:34pm

I agree with you broadly but Death Becomes Her is doing ok business and it feels like a Tony could turn it into a hit for a few years. Maybe not recoup but close.

A Tony to Maybe Happy Ending feels like it would be A Strange Loop and Kimberly Akimbo all over again. Also, unlike A Strange Loop and Kimberly, Maybe Happy Ending is doing good business so no one needs to feel they need to vote to save the artistry. 

Death Becomes Her feels like a crowd pleaser that’s well crafted enough not to embarrass the Tonys if it won but not isolating to audiences and can tour. If the Best Musical Tony feels too far out of touch with the mass public it loses relevance.  

I’m not saying these are good reasons for Death Becomes Her winning or even a likely outcome, I just am starting to feel maybe the Best Musical Tony is also more competitive than I first thought. 

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 04:34 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 4:46pm

It frankly seems like you've created narratives that fly in the face of the actual box office figures some of the these shows have been consistently maintaining for months.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 4:51pm

I hear you — some of these shows have been holding steady at the box office lately. But the reality is, that stability is largely propped up by awards season buzz and short-term curiosity. Once the Tonys pass and that momentum fades, many of these productions will be facing an uphill battle. They’ll no longer be the shiny new thing and will be forced to compete with the juggernauts like Wicked, The Lion King, and Hamilton for the tourist dollar — a fight most shows simply can’t win without major stars or long-term word-of-mouth appeal. We've seen this pattern before: a post-Tony drop-off is very real, and without consistent, widespread demand, even a few decent months don’t guarantee long-term financial health.

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 4:52pm

I haven't seen Buena Vista Social Club yet, but I don't know what more you could expect from it. Its grosses have increased nearly every week, and it hit its highest gross this week. It has a more-than-respectable average ticket price of $142.51, placing in the top 10 of all shows, and has a top price of $475.00. It's in a moderately sized house, but is playing to capacity. It may be too early to say it will recoup, but the signs don't seem to indicate it's unlikely to.

 

[carolinaguy]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 4:53pm

I'm not convinced Buena Vista doesn't have legs. It's doing very well, keeps growing, and word of mouth is terrific. A Tony telecast spotlight will likely have impact for them as well.

I have no idea about its capitalization, but this should tour well and there is a market for this.

[Sammy232]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 5:00pm

binau said: "I agree with you broadly but Death Becomes Her is doing ok business and it feels like a Tony could turn it into a hit for a few years. Maybe not recoup but close.

A Tony to Maybe Happy Ending feels like it would be A Strange Loop and Kimberly Akimbo all over again. Also, unlike A Strange Loop and Kimberly, Maybe Happy Ending is doing good business so no one needs to feel they need to vote to save the artistry.

Death Becomes Her feels like a crowdpleaser that’s well crafted enough not to embarrass the Tonys if it won but not isolating to audiences and can tour. If the Best Musical Tony feels too far out of touch with the mass public it loses relevance.

I’m not saying these are good reasons for Death Becomes Her winningor even a likely outcome, I just am starting to feel maybe the BestMusical Tony is also more competitive than I first thought."

I think that the biggest problem is a rumored 30 million capitalization - it would have to run for years (with most weeks being profitable) I would think to recoup.

[merle57]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 5:15pm

Sunset Blvd in its original Broadway production never made its costs back and ended up deeply in the red despite Glenn Close selling out every performance for 8 months. 

Jerome Robbins Broadway never fully recouped its costs since it was too expensive to produce and run. 

The 1967-68 season in which Hallelujah Baby won the Tony, none of the musicals recovered their costs -- Golden Rainbow, Happy Time, How Now Dow Jones, Darling of the Day, Education of Hyman Kaplan, Here';s Where I Belong, I'm Solomon .... even George M! closed at a loss.   Hair opened after the season ended, and it made millions, but it belongs to the next "season". 

I am sure others can come up with other seasons where none of the musicals made back their production costs. 

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 05:15 PM

[Sauja]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 5:21pm

I mean...we don't know what we don't know, but Buena Vista is doing GREAT business and this, " the show itself hasn’t captured the tourist or theatergoing public’s imagination" seems like pure speculation at best. Suggesting that it's only succeeding because of awards season feels specious. 

 

And as hard of a time as Maybe Happy Ending had getting going, it's been improving and improving and improving. A few sizable Tony wins could then very well give it enough added oomph to develop even stronger legs. I'm not ready to write any of these shows off yet, but especially not those two. 

[darquegk]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 6:05pm

merle57 said: "The 1967-68 season in whichHallelujah Baby won the Tony, none of the musicals recovered their costs -- Golden Rainbow, Happy Time, How Now Dow Jones, Darling of the Day, Education of Hyman Kaplan, Here';s Where I Belong, I'm Solomon .... even George M! closed at a loss. Hair opened after the season ended, and it made millions, but it belongs to the next "season".

 

Maybe it's related and maybe it's not, but I DO have to note that not a single show on that list of eligible "best musicals" has made it into the canon, or even into the vernacular. I actually had to pull up a list to see how often a year bears no lasting fruit, and it's less than you'd think: since 1968, we've had dry years in 1970, 1974, 1978, 1989 and 2000. Every other year either nominated a show that routinely gets produced to this day, or at least a show that didn't have legs but is still very much in the conversation due to its original production. (Don't get me wrong, there were some fantastic shows in those fallow years, but they just aren't perennial favorites.)

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 6:08pm

Totally true. None of them. Sad. And for those shows all consistently blowing through their reserves week after week, consider “calling it a day” and at least returning something to the investors. 

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 6:52pm

Sauja said: "I mean...we don't know what we don't know, but Buena Vista is doing GREAT business and this,"the show itself hasn’t captured the tourist or theatergoing public’s imagination" seems like pure speculation at best. Suggesting that it's only succeeding because of awards season feels specious.

And as hard of a time as Maybe Happy Ending had getting going, it's been improving and improving and improving. A few sizable Tony wins could then very well give it enough added oomph to develop even stronger legs. I'm not ready to write any of these shows off yet, but especially not those two."

It's hard to say. Most of these show are large with cast and crew.  MHE is deceptive.  Small cast but the backstage force is large and capitalized INITIALLY (before others came into the picture in fall) at almost 20 million it's now closer to 30.

DBH has a good shot at maintaining a crowd.  It's word of mouth is the best in town right now and with summer tourists looking for an IP they know.  DBH is sneaking up on the Tony with voters and may indeed pull an Outsiders this year - which went into award night the least positively reviewed of the 5 nominees. 

Artistically all 5 shows offer some great theater for different people.  This year, in most all categories, being nominated is winning.

[Kad]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 7:24pm

Call_me_jorge said: "I hear you — some of these shows have been holding steady at the box office lately. But the reality is, that stability is largely propped up by awards season buzz and short-term curiosity. Once the Tonys pass and that momentum fades, many of these productions will be facing an uphill battle. They’ll no longer be the shiny new thing and will be forced to compete with the juggernauts like Wicked, The Lion King, and Hamilton for the tourist dollar — a fight most shows simply can’t win without major stars or long-term word-of-mouth appeal. We've seen this pattern before: a post-Tony drop-off is very real, and without consistent, widespread demand, even a few decent months don’t guarantee long-term financial health."

The issue is that you've come to a conclusion- that none of these shows will recoup- and worked backwards from it, disregarding actual box office data going back months and presenting mere speculation about the future or ticketbuyer intention as evidence. DBH, MHE, and Buena Vista are all well-positioned right now to turn a Tony win into a healthy run, and all 3 enjoy very good word of mouth, all 3 have had healthy grosses going back months, all 3 will show well on the Tonys in either compelling performance or actual wins- and all 3 had things in their favor well before the awards season began. They will enjoy the glow as novel productions well into the sparse fall and holiday season, and will also be aided by the fact that a number of other shows will be closing between now and then. Mincemeat is ostensibly a limited run and one has to assume its low-cost production is a big boon here, even with housing foreign performers. Of these 5, Dead Outlaw is clearly the one most at risk of flopping at present. But to say this entire slate of shows is unlikely to recoup, when we now have months of evidence of strength, is silly.

If your barometer for whether a show will recoup is whether it becomes an instant cultural phenomenon, then we may as well not open any new shows at all.

 

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 07:24 PM

[bear88]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 7:41pm

I don’t know enough about capitalization and running costs for the five shows (except for the rather eye-popping number for Death Becomes Her) to say anything definitive but the only nominated musical of the five that’s clearly underperforming is Dead Outlaw. One of the reasons I was so determined to see it on my trip in April is that I wondered if the quirky show would survive until my next visit.

As others have said, I’m not sure what more could be asked of Buena Vista Social Club, with its steadily climbing grosses and average ticket price. Maybe it collapses after a few months, but there’s no sign of that. It’s getting stronger.

Maybe Happy Ending got off to a notoriously slow start, and people here were predicting its doom for months before and after it opened. I am sure it lost a fair amount of money during that time, but look at it now. Sold out, $1 million box office. Critical favorite. 

Operation Mincemeat isn’t a box office smash, but it shouldn’t be that expensive to run and its average ticket price is holding up along with the box office in a small theater.

Death Becomes Her does have high capitalization, but it’s got movie money behind it and comes close to filling a large theater every night. The box office has perked up lately.

All of these shows have something in common. No big stars. Shoot, the shaky attendance of the DBH stars may matter here, but it’s not hurting the box office. 

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 07:41 PM

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 8:42pm

I wouldn't count out Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista or Maybe Happy Ending from recouping but yes, it's definitely possible none recoup. This year was an unusual year with very few big IP offers like The Outsiders, Hell's Kitchen and others last year and no completely dominant cultural touchstone like Hamilton, Dear Evan Hansen and Hadestown at the end of the 2010s. Just an unusual year where a lot of new musicals were loved but not big commercial plays.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 9:38pm

Jorge, all you've done is make a bunch of baseless conclusions based on speculation and opinion, and in most cases you've ignored the actual evidence of the box office receipts. Ridiculous. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 9:53pm

The ChatGPT usage is coming in hot on this thread...

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 10:09pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Jorge, all you've done is make a bunch of baseless conclusions based on speculation and opinion, and in most cases you've ignored the actual evidence of the box office receipts. Ridiculous."

Rule of thumb- for most shows figure a million dollars per week “all in”, meaning inclusive of theatre rent percentage and minimum royalties (above weekly running costs).  

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/20/25 at 10:24pm

MAYBE HAPPY ENDING has made profit every week of 2025 so far.

If we believe its advertised breakeven of $750K (which may or may not be accurate, things change), it's made about $550K profit throughout its run so far –– and it's only that low because it took ~20 weeks to make up for the millions lost in its first 8 weeks.

As far as paying off the capitalization goes, remember that there is probably a hefty Priority Loan involved ($5 mil?), which needs to be paid off before the regular investors see a dime. But if sales continue and increase similar to the past two weeks, as is expected of Best Musical winners (presumptive), it should have no trouble recouping in the next 15-17 months.

Nobody should be jumping for joy and planning their retirement off this show yet. But it's a heck of a lot better than where things looked to be in November. It already seems far more resilient and crowd-pleasing than KIMBERLY and STRANGE LOOP (which both had premises that couldn't be easily explained to to the masses), you can take teens/kids, and it has greater potential on the road, internationally, and on screen.

 

(These numbers generated in 5 minutes of Excel-math, so if something's off, that's why!)

Updated On: 5/20/25 at 10:24 PM

[bear88]

Posted: 5/21/25 at 12:03am

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Nobody should be jumping for joy and planning their retirement off this show yet. But it's a heck of a lot better than where things looked to be in November.It already seems far more resilient and crowd-pleasing than KIMBERLY and STRANGE LOOP (which both had premises that couldn't be easily explained to to the masses), you can take teens/kids,and it has greater potential on the road, internationally, and on screen.

Maybe Happy Ending, just by the numbers, has established that it is more appealing to the masses than A Strange Loop and Kimberly Akimbo ever were, even after they won Best Musical. A Strange Loop was never going for that, and Kimberly Akimbo never really caught on.

MHE felt different, even noticing other people’s responses in the theater. The themes are more universal, and the show already has proven it can draw an audience in another country.

While the Best Musical award is obviously a boost, it’s not a cure-all. I wonder what happens to the runners-up.

My impression is that Buena Vista Social Club has been the least affected by reviews or nominations - although its nominations definitely seemed to help. It might not win the top prize next month but still be helped by a good performance at the ceremony.

Death Becomes Her may have gotten the biggest boost from its nominations, perhaps because it draws some extra tourists and gives the imprimatur of a good show and not just a funny one based on an old movie. It should be OK because it’s a big comedy.

I still think a win is most important for Maybe Happy Ending. The show, by its nature, is less likely to have the Tony Awards performance that people will be buzzing about the next day, especially when you factor in the revivals. It needs to be regarded as the must-see new show from this season.

It would be even more helpful for Dead Outlaw so more people will check it out, but I don’t think that is likely. Same with Operation Mincemeat, though it has done better at the box office.