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#28

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 4:33pm

I'm going by Piragua Guy's list. These are based on what I think what will happen.

Best Musical
Billy Elliot (Winner)
Next to Normal
Shrek
9 to 5 (Possible Winner, I would love for this to pull through)

Best Revival
Guys and Dolls
Hair (Possible Winner)
Pal Joey
West Side Story (Winner, sorry but I love this production. I hope it wins. I saw both Hair and this and it is VERY close but I'm rooting fro WSS)

Best Director
Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot (Possible Winner, I hope not)
Arthur Laurents, West Side Story (Possible just for being himself)
Joe Mantello, 9 to 5
Diane Paulus, Hair (Winner)

Actor
David/Trent/Kiril, Billy Elliot (Tie, Winner. I'm not sure about this one yet.)
Brian D'Arcy James, Shrek
J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal
Gavin Creel, Hair (Tie, Winner. I hope he wins)
Malcolm Gets, The Story of My Life

Actress (I can't decide on this one till I have seen all of the women)
Allison Janney, 9 to 5 (Possible Winner)
Alice Ripley, Next to Normal (Possible Winner)
Sutton Foster, Shrek
Kate Jennings Grant, Guys and Dolls
Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story (Possible Winner)

Featured Actor
Christopher Sieber, Shrek
Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5 (Possible Winner)
Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot
Will Swenson, Hair (Winner)
Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal

Featured Actress
Karen Olivo, West Side Story (Winner, if this comes true my dreams will all come true)
Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot
Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5
Megan Hilty, 9 to 5
Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey (Will be forgotten about)
#30

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 4:47pm

MUSICAL:
Shrek
9 to 5
Rock of Ages
Billy Elliot

I see Billy Elliot ro 9 to 5 taking this one

MUSICAL REVIVAL:
West Side Story
Guys and Dolls
Hair

I see either Hair or West Side taking this. I would prefer for West Side to take it.

I'd also love for Karen Olivo to atleast get a Featured Actress nomination
#32

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 4:51pm

I don't think Shrek is going to get a best musical nomination. It was a terrible show. truly awful. David Lindsay-Abaire and Jeanine Tesori should be ashamed of the work they did. their talents were completely wasted.
#33

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 6:02pm

I agree with practically all of Drunk Chita Rivera's predictions. Except for Best Director (I think Daldry will get it) and Featured Actor (rooting for Sieber).

And, KingKong, I understand that The Story Of My Life will likely not be eligible, but so far no official announcement has been made.
#34

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 6:07pm

I'm almost positive HAIR will take Best Revival.
I'm a professional. Whenever something goes wrong on stage, I know how to handle it so no one ever remembers. I flash my %#$&. "Jayne just sat there while Gina flailed around the stage like an idiot."
#35

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 7:49pm

Alrighty. I'm mostly taking piraug's noms and changing them up a bit. I'm ordering them in the order of likeliness to win, and *-ing what should win

ex:

Best Musical:

1. Sunday in the Park With George
2. Evita
3. Spring Awakening*
4. Lestat
(SITPWG most likely to win, Evita Second Most Likely, Spring Awakening third most likely, lestat least likely, and SA as what should win)










Best Musical
1. Billy Elliot
2. 9 to 5 *
3. Next to Normal
3. Shrek

Best Revival
1. Hair*
2. West Side Story
3. Guys and Dolls
4. Pal Joey

Best Director
1. Diane Paulus, Hair*
2. Arthur Laurents, West Side Story
3. Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot
4. Joe Mantello, 9 to 5


Actor
1. David/Trent/Kiril, Billy Elliot *
1. Gavin Creel, Hair
?. Brian D'Arcy James, Shrek
?. J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal
?. James Barbour, ATOTC

Actress
1. Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
2. Allison Janney, 9 to 5
3. Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story*
4. Sutton Foster, Shrek
5. Kate Jennings Grant, Guys and Dolls

Featured Actor
1. Christopher Sieber, Shrek*
2. Will Swenson, Hair
3. Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
4. Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot
5. Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal

Featured Actress
1. Karen Olivo, West Side Story*
1. Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5 *
2. Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot
3. Megan Hilty, 9 to 5
4. Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey

There are some where I have question marks, double number 1's, and double stars... all of which are NOT accidents.
"There's nothing good on. The media hates Christmas. The media loves vampires, though. Maybe they will show a Twilight Christmas."
-Danmeg's 10 year old son.
#36

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 7:52pm

Here are my musical predictions.

Best Musical
Billy Elliot (Winner)
Next to Normal
9 to 5 (Spoiler)
Shrek

Best Revival
Guys and Dolls
Hair (Winner)
Pal Joey
West Side Story (Spoiler)


Best Director
Stephen Daldry (Spoiler)
Arthur Laurents
Joe Mantello
Diane Paulus (Winner)

Best Book of a Musical
Billy Elliot (Winner)
Next To Normal
9 to 5 (Spoiler)
Shrek

Best Original Score
Billy Elliot (Spoiler)
Next to Normal
9 to 5 (Winner)
Shrek

Best Actor
David/Trent/Kiril Billy Elliot (Winner)
James Barbour ATOTC
Gavin Creel Hair (Spoiler)
Brian D'Arcy James Shrek
J Robert Spencer Next to Normal

Best Actress
Sutton Foster Shrek
Allison Janney 9 to 5 (Spoiler)
Alice Ripley Next to Normal (Winner)
Josefina Scaglione West Side Story
Kate Jennings Grant Guys and Dolls

Best Featured Actor
Gregory Jbara Billy Elliot
Marc Kudisch 9 to 5
Christopher Sieber Shrek (Spoiler)
Will Swenson Hair (Winner)
Aaron Tveit Next to Normal

Best Featured Actress
Stephanie J Block 9 to 5 (Winner)
Hadyn Gwynne Billy Elliot
Megan Hilty 9 to 5
Karen Olivo West Side Story (Spoiler)
Martha Plimpton Pal Joey


Best Choreography
Billy Elliot ( Winner)
9 to 5 (Spoiler)
Shrek
Hair

Best Scenic Design
Billy Elliot
9 to 5 (Winner)
Shrek (Spoiler)
White Christmas

Best Costume Design
Billy Elliot
9 to 5 (Spoiler)
Shrek (Winner)
White Christmas

Best Lighting Design
Billy Elliot (Winner)
Hair
9 to 5 (Spoiler)
Shrek


Best Sound Design
Billy Elliot ( Winner)
Hair (Spoiler)
9 to 5
Shrek

Best Orchestrations
Billy Elliot (Spoiler)
Next to Normal ( Winner)
9 to 5
Hair

My play predictions are a mess at the moment. It is a very competitive year for them. I will post it once tony time is a little closer.



Current Avatar:The sensational Aaron Tveit in the soon to be hit production of Catch Me If You Can.

Updated On: 4/15/09 at 07:52 PM

#37

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 7:58pm

"Best Scenic Design
Billy Elliot
9 to 5 (Winner)
Shrek (Spoiler)
White Christmas"

West Side Story will be nominated. I don't think Billy will get a nom for that. WSS set is great (most of the time)

"Best Lighting Design
Billy Elliot (Winner)
Hair
9 to 5 (Spoiler)
Shrek"

Hair's lights are really good, they could take that. think their only competition would be 9 to 5
#38

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/17/09 at 7:58pm

Why is there so little love for ROCK OF AGES? I'm not talkin' Best Musical nomination (yet), but what of Best Book? I think it definitely has the potential for a nomination...
#40

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/18/09 at 7:35am

KingKong, Gets is absolutely eligible. The committee did not make an announcement that he would not be, therefore he is as of right now.

I'm very surprised to see all these predictions for Creel and the Billys - something tells me Tony voters will be turned off by the boys and the fact is, Creel is in a show that revolves around the ensemble. I hate to sound like a Shrek fanboy, but don't count out D'Arcy James. He's giving a high-quality performance and has one of the most powerful voices on Broadway - under 2 hours worth of makeup. That's gotta count for something. Don't blame him for the quality of the material he's working with.

Shrek will be nominated for Best Musical, but of course it won't win. The fact is, Best Musical is not as open as anyone thinks. The main question marks are Shrek and Next to Normal. Shrek is very probable, and the question remains how Broadway audiences will recieve Next to Normal. If it closes after a couple days (which I doubt it will, the producers will want to keep it sailing at least 'til the Tonys) expect [tos], which needs a good marketing campaign to remind people of how much they loved the show (not a last-ditch effort to get themselves back on Broadway), to take the last nomination.

The Story of My Life, 13, and ATOTC have been out of the running for months now, and if Rock of Ages gets a Tony nomination for Best Musical I'll eat my hat, Brantley-style.
Formerly SirNotAppearing - Joined 3/08
#41

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/18/09 at 8:11am

I'm not sure if Gets will be eligible, but that is based on the Tony Administration Committee decision on American Buffalo. Buffalo was deemed ineligible because there were not enough performances for Tony voters to attend. The prompt closing of The Story of My Life might mean the same thing for that show, although I don't think the committee has met for a while to rule on eligibility for the last few months of shows.

I think Shrek will fare OK in the nominations, including making it into the Best Musical category. It gets relentlessly beaten up on this board, but I think that there is an industry feeling that it's better than any of the recent Disney shows and a reasonable entertainment. For any of its missteps - and there are a number of them - I was ultimately quite pleased with one of the messages it may impart to young audiences - that if you are a freak, a misfit, an outcast, there are others just like you and people who will love you just the same.
Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.
#42

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/18/09 at 1:14pm

Okay heres mine, forgive the play categories for being a bit sparse, ???= "Free Space"
Also for the non-acting categories I simply listed the show not the people involved

Best Musical:

9 to 5
Next to Normal
Billy Elliot
Rock of Ages / Shrek (Toss Up)

Best Book of a Musical

9 to 5
[title of show] / Shrek (Toss Up)
Billy Elliot
Next to Normal

Best Original Score

Next to Normal
9 to 5
Billy Elliot
[title of show] / Shrek (Toss Up)

Best Revival of a Play

Equus
Speed the Plow
Blithe Spirit
All My Sons

Best Revival of a Musical

West Side Story
Hair
Pal Joey
Guys and Dolls

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play

Daniel Radcliffe, Equus
Rupert Everett, Blithe Spirit
John Lithgow. All My Sons
???
???

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play

Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit
???
???
???
???

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical

J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal
The Three Billys, Billy Elliot
Brian D'Arcy James, Shrek
Gavin Creel, Hair
James Barbour, A Tale of Two Cities

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical

Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
Allison Janey, 9 to 5
Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5
Stockard Channing, Pal Joey
???

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play

Raúl Esparza, Speed the Plow
Patrick Wilson, All My Sons
???
???
???

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play

Christine Ebersole, Blithe Spirit
Elizabeth Moss, Speed the Plow
???
???
???

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical

Christopher Sieber, Shrek
Mitchell Jarvis, Rock of Ages
Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal
Will Swenson, Hair

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical

Karen Olivo, West Side Story
Heidi Blickenstaff, [title of show]
Megan Hilty, 9 to 5
Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey
Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot

Best Direction of a Musical

9 to 5
Shrek
Hair
Next to Normal

Best Choreography

9 to 5
Billy Elliot
Shrek
???

Best Orchestrations
Shrek
9 to 5
Billy Elliot
West Side Story

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

9 to 5
Billy Elliot
Shrek
Hair

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Shrek
Billy Elliot
Guys and Dolls
9 to 5


"Grease," the fourth revival of the season, is the worst show in the history of theater and represents an unparalleled assault on Western civilization and its values. - Michael Reidel
#43

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/18/09 at 1:19pm

^

Sorry. Those seem really far off. WEST SIDE STORY is not eligible for Best Orchestrations. And the production will definitely be nominated for Best Scenic Design. Josefina Scaglione is almost a definite nomination. And depending on tomorrow's reviews, Laurents will probably snag another Directing nomination.

Updated On: 3/18/09 at 01:19 PM

#46

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/19/09 at 8:46am

Here's a "too early" shot at the leading nominees in the PLAY categories so far:

BEST PLAY
"Dividing the Estate"
"God of Carnage"
"reasons to be pretty"
"Irena's Vow"
(The American Plan)

BEST REVIVAL
"The Seagull"
"Exit the King"
"Mary Stuart"
"The Normal Conquests"
(Joe Turner's)

BEST DIRECTOR
Rickson-"The Seagull"
Lloyd-"Mary Stuart"
Armfield-"Exit the King"
Warchus-"The Normal Conquests"
(Sher-"Joe Turner's)
(all revivals...has this happened before?)

BEST ACTOR
Geoffrey Rush-"Exit the King"
Bill Irwin-"Waiting for Godot"
Raul Esparza-"Speed-the-Plow"
Pablo Shreiber-"Desire Under the Elms"
John Gandolfini-"God of Carnage"
(John Lithgow-"All My Sons")

BEST ACTRESS (THE category this year)
Jane Fonda-"33 Variations"
Kristin Scott Thomas-"The Seagull"
Tovah Feldshuh-"Irena's Vow"
Harriet Walker-"Mary Stuart"
Janet McTeer-"Mary Stuart"
(Angela Lansbury & Carla Gugino must also be nominated!)

BEST FEAT ACTOR
Paul Ritter-"The Normal Conquests"
Brian Murray-"Mary Stuart"
William Sadler-"Exit the King"
Someone from-"Joe Turner"
John Goodman or Glover-"Waiting for Godot"
(Thomas Ryan-"Irena's Vow")

BEST FEAT ACTRESS
Hallie Foote-"Dividing the Estate"
Jayne Atkinson-"Blithe Spirit"
Andrea Martin-"Exit the King"
Hope Davis-"God of Carnage"
Someone from-"Joe Turner's"
(Someone else from-"Joe Turner's")
#47

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/19/09 at 9:02am

That's not too dissimilar to how I think the play categories will go, Neil, except that I think Desire Under the Elms may play a bigger hand in the nominations, in the categories of Revival, Actress, Director (and Set). Also, there are several major female roles in Joe Turner - three actresses from Joe Turner filled the slots in the 1988 Tony nominations.

But The Seagull, Exit the King, Mary Stuart and Norman Conquests (with Desire Under the Elms and Joe Turner as wild cards) are also what I've been thinking for Best Revival.

I think I'd also weep if Carey Mulligan from The Seagull doesn't get a featured actress nomination.

Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.

Updated On: 3/19/09 at 09:02 AM

#48

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/19/09 at 9:49am

Zoe Kazan (THE SEAGULL) might be nominated, if the committee wants to reward an up-and-coming American actress (although the people who didn't like THE SEAGULL generally listed her as one of the "misfires").

One thing is for sure: if the EXIT THE KING reviews follow suit with what board-ers have been saying, Raul can kiss that Tony goodbye - at least for this year.
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
#49

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/19/09 at 10:50am

I agree, after what I heard about Rush, poor Esparza will have to wait a little bit longer to give another great performance (shouldn't be hard for him) and hopefully take home a Tony.

It seems like this is going to be Rush's year.


And HAIR certainly deserves to win Best Revival. It's easily the best revival of the year by far. Not so sure if Paulus deserves to win Best Director though...
#50

re: Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread

Posted: 3/19/09 at 11:04am

Neil - I think you have Lansbury and Atkinson in the wrong categories for Blithe Spirit. Atkinson is definitely the lead, and Lansbury is definitely featured. Both are worthy nominees.
"It does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are 20 gods or no god. It neither picks my pocket, nor breaks my leg." -- Thomas Jefferson

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