Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread- Page 4

[KingKong]

Posted: 3/20/09 at 9:00pm

Most people do, except for the most delusional.

[ljay889]

Posted: 3/20/09 at 9:25pm

I think it's between Hadyn and Karen.

[Amaranth9]

Posted: 3/20/09 at 9:26pm

I think the dynamics of the race are very intriguing. By all accounts Haydn Gwynne and Martha Plimpton are worthy contenders but it doesn't seem they'll have momentum in the minds of Tony voters.

I wonder if Megan Hilty will be in the mix (The opposite could happen with SJB but I have a very hard time imagining her being shut-out.) I really enjoyed her and she charmed the press but I think back to our little exercise in category placement for the 9 to 5 women and can't help but think that the possibility of canceled-out votes would weigh on the minds of producers.

Between Olivo and SJB, Olivo definitely has the more exciting role (I mean, come on, it's the "fiesty," "sexy" girlfriend of a gang leader vs. the square-ish "frazzled divorcé.") Both have a knock-out number. Comparisons to Chita or Debbie Allen might hurt Olivo but doesn't seem to in reviews.

Olivo is hailed as the best performer in a flawed cast/ production of a classic show. Would that be enough to make her the best against her co-nominees? I'm hoping for the best, but 9 to 5 may not get the best critical reception despite the fact that many of the elements are strong, including costume, sets, choreography, sound and the performance by the ensemble and leads (I liked the book and score too but those are more debatable.) Would it hurt SJB that she is one in a cast that were all highly praised and thus appear to stand out less, or, does that work in her favor and against Olivo's?


Can you tell I've thought about this a lot? =) I can't wait for the show to open so we can get a better picture of the race.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 3/20/09 at 10:53pm

It's still down to Haydn, Karen, and Stephanie. The reviews are helping Karen.

[Testing1232]

Posted: 3/21/09 at 12:51am

<< I think it's between Hadyn and Karen.
>>

Saw "WSS" tonight, and Karen is excellent, but I would give the Tony to Hadyn. Just my .02

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 3/21/09 at 1:11am

I don't really think Haydn will win.

Won't she be out of the show by then? I thought I read that somewhere. So that should help the other nominees, granting that they're all (as they should be if they are what everyone seems to think they'll be) still in their shows at Tony time.

Plus, I think her performance will be forgotten by then. She'll certainly get nominated but with the plethora of estrogen on Broadway this season, it's a tough year for her to pull off a win.

[dapperchapper]

Posted: 3/21/09 at 2:51am

No one has mentioned her, but I think Dianne Wiest will be nominated for Leading Actress in a Play for "All My Sons."

[Smaxie]

Posted: 3/21/09 at 9:53am

Dianne Wiest is a wonderful actress, but the season is unusually busy with plays and you could fill the category with Kristin Scott Thomas, Marcia Gay Harden, Janet McTeer, Harriet Walter, Tovah Feldshuh, Jane Fonda, Angela Lansbury, Jayne Atkinson or Carla Gugino before ever getting to Wiest. I don't think she'll get a nomination this year.

[TheActr97J]

Posted: 3/21/09 at 10:20am

I think Geoffrey Rush is pretty much a lock for Best Actor. He's doing work so phenomenal that it just can't be ignored Once the reviews come out, I think it will pretty much solidify that race. Raul will get his day...

And I'm honestly baffled by all the support for Irena's Vow on this board. I just don't get the love for it. Compelling story? Yes. Good theater? Nuh uh.

[Smaxie]

Posted: 3/21/09 at 10:37am

Posts on this board and All That Chat can be deceiving. Sometimes the internet chatter matches up pretty closely to the professional reviews, and sometimes it can be wildly out of sync. The professional Shrek and West Side Story reviews were a lot more gentle than the posts here. Passing Strange had some very big detractors here, but opened to mostly raves. Irena's Vow played in New York previously to what I would call good, respectful but not ecstatic reviews, but with praise for Tovah's performance. We'll see how it fares very soon.

[neil30043]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 9:00am

After reading the thread, I'm wondering if there are any 'gamechanging' productions that will open...We know that Hair, Mary Stuart, Exit the King, etc. will get very favorable reviews. I suppose "The Normal Conquests" could arrive from England and blow the critics away with a boatload of nominations...I think that while "9 to 5" might be a crowd-pleaser, I don't think it will be a 'gamechanger' at this point? Any other ideas?

[Jersey Girl2]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 9:12am

>>>I'm ashamed of this message board if THIS thread, with these braindead thoughts, becomes the "Official" predictions thread.

So start your own.

But- Predictions are nothing more than a guess.
How official could they be?

[Smaxie]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 9:14am

Norman Conquests got raves across the board in London, so I do expect it will fare well when it gets here. NY critics loved House and Garden a few years back, and Norman is the better play.

I don't know if 9 to 5 is the type of show that can topple Billy Elliott, but sight unseen I do think it's at least in the races for Best Score for the Dolly Parton factor, Best Featured Actress and Best Set.

[dg22894]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 9:15am

Best Musical
"Billy Elliot"
"Next to Normal"
"Shrek"
"Nine to Five"

Best Revival
"Pal Joey"
"West Side Story"
"Hair"*
"Guys and Dolls"

Best Director
Daldry-"BE"
Laurents-"WSS"
Paulus-"Hair"
Mantello-"9 to 5"*

Actor
The Billys-"BE"
Creig Bierko- Guys and Dolls
Gavin Creel-"Hair"
BD James-"Shrek"
JR Spencer-"Next to Normal"

Actress
Sutton Foster-"Shrek"
Allison Janney-"9 to 5"
Alice Ripley-"Next to Normal"
Josephina Scaglione-"WSS"
Stephenie J Block- 9 to 5


Featured Actor
Chris Sieber-"Shrek"
Aaron Tveit-"Next to Normal"
Will Swenson-"Hair"
Greg Jbara-"BE"
Marc Kudisch-"9 to 5"

Featured Actress
Karen Olivo-"WSS"
Martha Plimpton-"Pal Joey"
Megan Hilty-"9 to 5"
Sasha Allen-"Hair"
Hadyn Gwynne-"BE"

Score
"13" I do not like BE score
"Next to Normal"*
"9 to 5"
"Shrek"
("Title of Show")

Book
"Title of Show"
"Next to Normal"*
"9 to 5"
"Shrek"

Choreography
"BE"*
"9 to 5"
"Shrek"
"Hair"

Lighting
"BE"*
"White Christmas"
"9 to 5"
"Shrek"

Costumes
"BE"
"White Christmas"
"9 to 5"
"Shrek"

Scenery
"BE"
"White Christmas"*
"Next to Normal"
"9 to 5"

Sound
"Title of Show" did not like Billy Elloit's sound
"WSS"
"9 to 5"
"Hair"*

* is who I think will win in some categories. This thread is a bit early though.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 9:18am

[tos] for Sound? What?

Why all the talk about what you liked and didn't? Are you the sole member of the Tony nominating committee?

[jagfkb]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 9:32am

Also, a touring show... for scenery? I doubt it'll even be nominated, let alone win. 9 to 5 has that category in the bag.

[biggest CHENO fan]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 2:22pm

All I'm saying is I really want Seiber to win for best supporting Actor.

[sgv123]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 2:40pm

I think Haydn is in BE until July.

[snarkywannabedreamer]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 4:47pm

all that are showing so much love for "9 to 5", have you actually seen the show? I'm just curious because I have heard more negative comments than good from those that have actually seen it in Los Angeles and many say that it is a bit of a mess. It has some great people in it and I love me some Dolly, I guess I am just curious where all the chatter about what a lock it is is coming from.

[CSonBroadway]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 4:51pm

9 to 5 is really anticipated and has some good word of mouth

[TheCharleston]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 5:41pm

9 To 5 is an absolute lock for a "Best Musical" nomination, Snarky.

But a win..? Doubtful.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 5:45pm

Yeah, 9 TO 5 is hardly a mess.

It's not perfect but it's not a mess. Probably the best musical comedy based on a film since HAIRSPRAY.

I think this year's going to totally depend on what the Tony voters want not which is clearly the best. 9 TO 5, NEXT TO NORMAL, and BILLY ELLIOT are all great but it will depend on which show they feel like awarding this year. (I'm ready for the barrage of attacks that NEXT TO NORMAL has no shot in hell at winning...)

[ljay889]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 5:55pm

"Probably the best musical comedy based on a film since HAIRSPRAY. "



9 TO 5 is better than DIRTY ROTTEN SCOUNDRELS??

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 5:58pm

I don't know. I mean I loved, loved, loved DRS but it's very different than 9 TO 5.

I guess it's the best since DRS...but I like 9 TO 5's score better than DRS's. I don't know...but good point, ljay.

[snarkywannabedreamer]

Posted: 3/22/09 at 10:02pm

I still haven't heard any of you say if you actually SAW it.

Sure it may be a lock for best musical (I mean, let's get real. there is hardly any competition in the world of the Tonys, unlike say the Oscars). And "word of mouth" and "buzz" are very easy to create without the merit of actually being good. (Hell, I remember when Vanity Fair told me Gretchen Mol was going to be the next Julia Roberts ten years ago)

Just curious if these predictions were actually based on something you saw.