PREDICTIONS ON WHAT WILL CLOSE?

[nzagier]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 11:00am

any predictions from y'all on what will close post Tony's ?   

[nophibbing]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 11:38am

I think the only firm closing is Paradise Square. Even with Joaquina's "Let It Burn" it's not going to save the show from the poor grosses they've had every week since opening. The show's just a mess and needed another try out or two before trying a Broadway run. I give them until this Sunday at the earliest. They'll be closed by 7/3. I think everything else should run through at least Labor Day or their already announced closings. POTUS might not make it to 8/14.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 11:47am

Not too much to speculate about here. As had been widely discussed, we’re anticipating a closing announcement form Paradise Square this week.

Company will probably stick it out for now, while Mr. Saturday Night is on the fence. Both of these will be significantly clarified in the coming weeks when we get post-Tony grosses. In the meantime, it’s hard to make an assumption either way.

I think the only other ones on the fence are The Minutes and POTUS – they aren’t the only plays with low grosses, but I think they’re the only ones that are planning to run for 1+ month, meaning they might have an incentive to close early. By contrast, some of the other shows are already planning to close in the next week or two, so they won’t bother closing early.

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 11:49am

Paradise Square will most likely announce their closing early next week, after producers realize the Tony performance didn’t have any / much of an effect on ticket sales. Remember this also happened in 2019 with multiple “newer” shows that weren’t selling: The Prom, Be More Chill, King Kong, and The Cher Show all announced their imminent demises the week after the Tonys. 

I feel this will be one of those “short-leash” closings, and it will shutter June 26, allowing Almost Famous ample time to book the Barrymore, load in, and settle for September 13. 
 

[Emmeline Carter]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 11:49am

Has anyone heard anything more about if Beetlejuice is shutting down in the fall? I've heard mixed things about if it's going to survive the rest of the year or not.

Updated On: 6/14/22 at 11:49 AM

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 11:54am

Emmeline Carter said: "Has anyone heard anything more about if Beetlejuice is shutting down in the fall? I've heard mixed things about if it's going to survive the rest of the year or not."

They’re probably getting the most out of one more influx of younger summer tourists. It will be exorcised by Labor Day at the absolute latest, before the target audience for this show goes back to school. 

From what I hear, Once Upon a One More Time is all set for the Marquis, as it was rumored for the space before the pandemic hit (same with Almost Famous at the Barrymore). 

 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 11:57am

Emmeline Carter said: "Has anyone heard anything more about if Beetlejuice is shutting down in the fall? I've heard mixed things about if it's going to survive the rest of the year or not."

 

I assume the reason you’ve heard “mixed things” is because nobody actually knows. The show is doing reasonably well, so the question is just whether or not it can sustain that. And we just don’t know. We have to wait and see. 

Same thing for Funny Girl. 

Although I’d think Beetlejuice maybe has more legs than Funny Girl, even with grosses that are currently lower. Just seems like a more sustainable potential audience, and not racing against bad word of mouth. Plus I think Beetlejuice has an incentive to stick around for Halloween. 

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:09pm

It’s really nuts to me how far Beetlejuice’s business seems to have fallen after it’s return. I do think they’ll try to hang on for Halloween though and see if things pick up then.

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:20pm

I’m sorry but I do think POTUS will make it to August. It’s been receiving excellent reviews even though it didn’t win any Tonys. It’s a limited run anyway. 

[JSquared2]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:29pm

ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure said: "It’s really nuts to me how far Beetlejuice’s business seems to have fallen after it’s return. I do think they’ll try to hang on for Halloween though and see if things pick up then."

 

There's no real ,mystery here.  The show's producers (mistakenly) equated the show's rabid social media fangurl base with ACTUAL Broadway ticket buyers.  There were no full price ticket buyers clamoring for this show to come back.

 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:33pm

JSquared2 said: "ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure said: "It’s really nuts to me how far Beetlejuice’s business seems to have fallen after it’s return. I do think they’ll try to hang on for Halloween though and see if things pick up then."



There's no real ,mystery here. The show's producers (mistakenly) equated the show's rabid social media fangurl base with ACTUAL Broadway ticket buyers. There were no full price ticket buyers clamoring for this show to come back.

"

Exactly. I think people forget the only reason Music Man could "kick them out of their theatre" (as so many Beetlejuice fans like to claim) was because their grosses had fallen low enough for the clause in their contract that allows them to be evicted was triggered. And then when everyone complained about it, suddenly the producers I guess thought that meant they would all buy tickets? But that's clearly not the case.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:35pm

hearthemsing22 said: "I’m sorry but I do think POTUS will make it to August. It’s been receiving excellent reviews even though it didn’t win any Tonys. It’s a limited run anyway."

It's also been losing money week after week. I love the show, but it's flopping hard at the box office. 

[BrodyFosse123]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:41pm

Also, a quick glance on BEETLEJUICE’s Instagram, you’ll quickly gage the amount of those who wish they could see it or hope to one day.  Seems the show has a large fan following but none who can afford to see the show itself.  Also, as mentioned above, these fans of the show who ARE going to see it, aren’t buying the top priced tickets.  It’s either in the least expensive or rush tickets.  Fans don’t equate to ticket sales.  General audiences interested in a show who buy Premium Seats or top priced tickets keep shows running.  

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:45pm

Which Beetlejuice grosses are you guys looking at? 

It’s true that there’s a substantial difference between their lowest gross and their highest gross since coming back. But even their lowest gross of $875K is….workable. But more importantly / more to the point, their numbers have climbed back up again since then. I think we can assume that their highest gross of $1.45MM was an outlier, as it came from their first full week back. But if they can keep up their $900k-$1MM average, they’re in a perfectly healthy position to keep chugging along. 

And I’m pretty sure Beetlejuice’s stop clause was triggered RETROACTIVELY from one of their earlier low grosses. In the intervening time, their grosses had climbed substantially, the found an audience, and were on firm financial footing. But the Shuberts kicked them out because Music Man was an EVEN better bet, and Rudin leveraged that to get the house he wanted. 

It was 100% reasonable for the producers to assume they had a commercially viable model for returning, and that all to do with ticket sales, and nothing at all to do with the online fandom (though the fandom didn’t hurt). 

And from what we can tell, their assumption wasn’t totally off base at all. They are doing reasonably well right now. It’s just unclear whether it will sustain. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:47pm

Broadway61004 said: "I think people forget the only reason Music Man could "kick them out of their theatre" (as so many Beetlejuice fans like to claim) was because their grosses had fallen low enough for the clause in their contract that allows them to be evicted was triggered. And then when everyone complained about it, suddenly the producers I guess thought that meant they would all buy tickets? But that's clearly not the case."

You're conflating events:

BEETLEJUICE started poorly, in which it dropped below the stop-clause range. It seemed DOA after awful reviews. Then, as summer went on and buzz started to build post-Tonys, its grosses climbed –– but at that point it was too late, and the Shuberts had already promised the theatre to Rudin for MUSIC MAN.

BEETLEJUICE suddenly rebounding at the box office was a once-a-decade thing that nobody saw coming. The kind of thing that every producer dreams of and never actually works.

BJ grosses

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:50pm

I really cannot see THE MINUTES and POTUS lasting through July 24 and August 14 respectively.

Beyond PARADISE SQUARE (whose box office performance post-Tonys won't be evident until next week), I think everything else is safe at least for this month. We'll see what the staying power of STRANGE LOOP, FUNNY GIRL, MR. SATURDAY NIGHT, and MJ will be as the months go on, but all seem fine for now.

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:54pm

ElephantLoveMedley said: "hearthemsing22 said: "I’m sorry but I do think POTUS will make it to August. It’s been receiving excellent reviews even though it didn’t win any Tonys. It’s a limited run anyway."

It's also been losing money week after week. I love the show, but it's flopping hard at the box office."

Has a limited run ever announced an earlier closing date than what they originally scheduled? 

[BroadwayRox3588]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:56pm

hearthemsing22 said: "ElephantLoveMedley said: "hearthemsing22 said: "I’m sorry but I do think POTUS will make it to August. It’s been receiving excellent reviews even though it didn’t win any Tonys. It’s a limited run anyway."

It's also been losing money week after week. I love the show, but it's flopping hard at the box office."

Has a limited run ever announced an earlier closing date than what they originally scheduled?"

So many times. A couple this season, in fact.

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 12:58pm

Broadway61004 said: "JSquared2 said: "ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure said: "It’s really nuts to me how far Beetlejuice’s business seems to have fallen after it’s return. I do think they’ll try to hang on for Halloween though and see if things pick up then."



There's no real ,mystery here. The show's producers (mistakenly) equated the show's rabid social media fangurl base with ACTUAL Broadway ticket buyers. There were no full price ticket buyers clamoring for this show to come back.

"

Exactly. I think people forget the only reason Music Man could "kick them out of their theatre" (as so many Beetlejuice fans like to claim) was because their grosses had fallen low enough for the clause in their contract that allows them to be evicted was triggered. And then when everyone complained about it, suddenly the producers I guess thought that meant they would all buy tickets? But that's clearly not the case."

Correct me if I’m wrong. But I don’t think BTJ was doing well and it *was* set to close, but then saw a huge bump in ticket sales after their Tonys performance so people were like “but it’s doing so well why is music man kicking them out?!”? 

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:01pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Broadway61004 said: "I think people forget the only reason Music Man could "kick them out of their theatre" (as so many Beetlejuice fans like to claim) was because their grosses had fallen low enough for the clause in their contract that allows them to be evicted was triggered. And then when everyone complained about it, suddenly the producers I guess thought that meant they would all buy tickets? But that's clearly not the case."

You're conflating events:

BEETLEJUICE started poorly, in which it dropped below the stop-clause range. It seemed DOA after awful reviews. Then, as summer went on and buzz started to build post-Tonys, its grosses climbed –– but at that point it was too late, and the Shuberts had already promised the theatre to Rudin for MUSIC MAN.

BEETLEJUICE suddenly rebounding at the box office was a once-a-decade thing that nobody saw coming. The kind of thing that every producer dreams of and never actually works.

BJ grosses"

THIS THANK YOU 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:10pm

hearthemsing22 said: "Correct me if I’m wrong. But I don’t think BTJ was doing well and it *was* set to close, but then saw a huge bump in ticket sales after their Tonys performance so people were like “but it’s doing so well why is music man kicking them out?!”?"

 

I guess you might be right, in the sense that it’s unclear exactly how long they were aware that Music Man would be kicking them out. Maybe it’s true that they knew the whole time, and that the Shuberts triggered the stop clause for Music Man behind the scenes, before Beetlejuice had they post-Tony turnaround. It wasn’t announced until MUCH later, but maybe it’s true that it was a done deal way before then. 
 

But that doesn’t change the central fact that initiated this discussion, which is that the producers of Beetlejuice had strong, concrete reason to believe that there would be commercial demand for a return. 

 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:31pm

JBroadway said: "Which Beetlejuice grosses are you guys looking at?

It’s true that there’s a substantial difference between their lowest gross and their highest gross since coming back. But even their lowest gross of $875K is….workable. But more importantly / more to the point, their numbers have climbed back up again since then. I think we can assume that their highest gross of $1.45MM was an outlier, as it came from their first full week back. But if they can keep up their $900k-$1MM average, they’re in a perfectly healthy position to keep chugging along.

It was 100% reasonable for the producers to assume they had a commercially viable model for returning, and that all to do with ticket sales, and nothing at all to do with the online fandom (though the fandom didn’t hurt).

And from what we can tell, their assumption wasn’t totally off base at all. They are doing reasonably well right now. It’s just unclear whether it will sustain."

 

….aaaaannddd Beetlejuice’s gross from this week proves my point even further.

I’m still curious to hear from the people in this thread who are accusing them of misjudging the demand - what is that claim based on, given their current grosses?

Again, I fully admit that the long-term sustainability of this demand is very much in doubt, and we’ll have to wait and see how it pans out. But I don’t understanding people implying that they aren’t CURRENTLY doing good business. 

 

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:44pm

Re: Minutes & POTUS, The Minutes received a SVOG payout, so I'd say that one is more likely to stick around. Though, Jeffrey Richards has never really shied away from closing a show when it was time. Rent for POTUS must be exorbitant. I cannot imagine a world where they weren't offered the EDIT: Broadhurst which has been sitting empty since JLP. That would have been a MUCH smarter producing decision. But they put it in the Shubert, so they pay Shubert rent.

Updated On: 6/14/22 at 01:44 PM

[JSquared2]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:48pm

OhHiii said: "Re: Minutes & POTUS, The Minutes received a SVOG payout, so I'd say that one is more likely to stick around. Though, Jeffrey Richards has never really shied away from closing a show when it was time. Rent for POTUS must be exorbitant. I cannot imagine a world where they weren't offered the Barrymore which has been sitting empty since the Fall. That would have been a MUCH smarter producing decision. But they put it in the Shubert, so they pay Shubert rent."

 

The Barrymore has been empty since the Fall?  Someone better tell that to PARADISE SQUARE!!  

[mattmarkowski99]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:50pm

Paradise Square has been in the Barrymore since March 15, so I doubt it was ever offered the Barrymore. Plus Parade Square announced back in June that they'd be taking the Barrymore.