PREDICTIONS ON WHAT WILL CLOSE? - Page 2

[mattmarkowski99]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:50pm

Paradise Square has been in the Barrymore since March 15, so I doubt it was ever offered the Barrymore. Plus Parade Square announced back in June that they'd be taking the Barrymore.

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:56pm

Sorry sorry, BROADHURST. Updated my original post. 

[BCfitasafiddle]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:58pm

In a way, with Paradise Square being there, the Barrymore has been empty... 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 1:59pm

OhHiii said: "Sorry sorry, BROADHURST. Updated my original post."

The Broadhurst has A Beautiful Noise set for the fall - the marquee was just installed today! 

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 2:28pm

EDSOSLO858 said: "OhHiii said: "Sorry sorry, BROADHURST. Updated my original post."

The Broadhurst hasA Beautiful Noiseset for the fall - the marquee was just installed today!"

And I'm talking about POTUS which would have closed in August in time for Beautiful Noise to move in...so, your point?

[GreasedLightning]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 2:36pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "I really cannot see THE MINUTES and POTUS lasting through July 24 and August 14 respectively."

Neither do they, apparently, considering that's when both of their runs are scheduled to end...

[RippedMan]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 2:52pm

OhHiii said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "OhHiii said: "Sorry sorry, BROADHURST. Updated my original post."

The Broadhurst hasA Beautiful Noiseset for the fall - the marquee was just installed today!"

And I'm talking about POTUS which would have closed in August in time for Beautiful Noise to move in...so, your point?"

We don't know what kind of deal the owners worked out. They probably didn't want their namesake theater to sit empty for so long. So maybe they offered a discounted rent? Who knows. 

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 3:12pm

RippedMan said: "OhHiii said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "OhHiii said: "Sorry sorry, BROADHURST. Updated my original post."

The Broadhurst hasA Beautiful Noiseset for the fall - the marquee was just installed today!"

And I'm talking about POTUS which would have closed in August in time for Beautiful Noise to move in...so, your point?"

We don't know what kind of deal the owners worked out. They probably didn't want their namesake theater to sit empty for so long. So maybe they offered a discounted rent? Who knows."

I have to agree with this, because a producer would have to be out of their mind with a show to size of POTUS to pick the Shubert over the Broadhurst. Especially when all of the marquees for the Shubert are currently covered with scaffolding. 

[RippedMan]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 3:37pm

Right, I would think it was some sort of secret handshake type thing to have their flagship theater occupied when there were other theaters available. But who knows. 

[StardustsChild]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 6:13pm

This brings up an interesting question; which theatres typically are the most expensive and least expensive to rent? I'd assume something like the Cort pre pandemic would be on the lower end since it was in such desperate need of renovation, which will no longer be the case when it is the Jones, but I don't have a sense of where the theatres fall in terms of a rough lineup.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 6:50pm

A complete speculation but I think:

- Paradise Square will be gone by the end of the month
- I think Funny Girl will be an end of summer closing that catches us a little bit by surprise because it happens when the grosses are still solid (like what happened with the Carousel revival in 2018)
- I think Company will close around the one year mark/New Year's
- I think Mr. Saturday Night will hang on until New Year's or Billy Crystal's contract is up, whichever comes first
- Beetlejuice is a tricky one. Grosses are back on the upswing heading into summer but if they think it's going to be a tough go during the school year then it might close sooner than expected (especially if that theatre is claimed as rumored)

[Laurapattifan]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 6:51pm

Beetlejuice and Six were the first (and really only) huge musicals on Tiktok. The songs were used as trending audios and got a lot of people into the shows. As you can expect these trends last like a month. That month ended in 2019/2020, but some die hards still exist. If the pandemic and The Music Man had not happened they probably would have had a solid chance at recouping. 

[Damiensta]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 6:56pm

Jane Lynch in an interview said her contract was only 6 months. If they close, maybe when six month hits that way not have to  rehearse new cast.

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/14/22 at 7:10pm

bdn223 said: "We don't know what kind of deal the owners worked out. They probably didn't want their namesake theater to sit empty for so long. So maybe they offered a discounted rent? Who knows."

I have to agree with this, because a producer would have to be out of their mind with a show to size of POTUS to pick the Shubert over the Broadhurst. Especially when all of the marquees for the Shubert are currently covered with scaffolding."

The producer in question was indeed given a choice of houses. Take it for what you will, but ego and ego alone put that show in the Shubert. It’s not like that set needed a huge stage space. Bad producing if you ask me, which is panning out by it’s losing money consistently. A tighter ticket would have done wonders for that show. It also felt a bit rushed in too, so can’t imagine they built a substantial advance either.

The whole having their flagship theater empty thing isn’t based on anything. 

But yes, different houses have different rents and a lot of it is capacity, but there are other things that definitely factor in like location, etc. It’s just like renting anything else. And how rent actualizes can take different forms, percentage of weekly grosses is almost if not always a piece of it. Hence the incentive for theater owners to get new tenants in when shows dip. 

Updated On: 6/14/22 at 07:10 PM

[nzagier]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 9:05am

Paradise Sq. saw a slight bump on Monday and Tuesday I am told, but not enough to suggest a trend. Big meeting today to discuss its future         

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 9:44am

I'd bet they announce closing next week. Most likely for the same Sunday.

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 11:49am

OhHiii said: "I'd bet they announce closing next week. Most likely for the same Sunday."

Wouldn't they of had to tell the cast yesterday if they were closing next Sunday, due to the 2 week rule? My assumption after not hearing anything yesterday was that they would play through the end of the month/4th of July weekend. I know its only an extra week, but it would at least be a moral victory for the cast and crew, especially for Joquina Kalukango showing that giving the performance of a lifetime at the Tony's does mean something.

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:18pm

bdn223 said: "OhHiii said: "I'd bet they announce closing next week. Most likely for the same Sunday."

Wouldn't they of had to tell the cast yesterday if they were closing next Sunday, due to the 2 week rule? My assumption after not hearing anything yesterday was that they would play through the end of the month/4th of July weekend. I know its only an extra week, but it would at least be a moral victory for the cast and crew, especially for Joquina Kalukango showing that giving the performance of a lifetime at the Tony's does mean something."

They have to tell the cast before the first performance of the closing playing week. I meant they'd avoid announcing the week after Tonys and wait til next week to announce they're closing on Sunday, 6/26.

[PeterC6482]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:28pm

If they (Paradise Square) want to stay open for an extended period, they will have to move to another theatre, which will be expensive.

[expectingtheworst]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:28pm

I heard that there are at least 100 comps for the matinee today at PSQ and over 100 comps for the evening performance last night...

[troynow]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:30pm

POTUS:Will complete the scheduled run.

PARADISE SQUARE: Will shutter by June 26. ALMOST FAMOUS will announce its home and AINT NO MO will announce the Belasco. 

COMPANY: will remain until the new year.

Everything is as scheduled. 

[PeterC6482]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:34pm

Is the Belasco already spoken for? It would be a good fit for Paradise Square, since it's stage is wider and deeper than the Barrymore's.

 

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:35pm

Just announced that Billy Crystal signed on for a new limited series, so Mr. Saturday Night may not be around much longer.

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/billy-crystal-apple-series-before-barry-levinson-1235295157/

[JBellan87]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:54pm

13 shows this past week grossed over $1 million, Beetlejuice being one of them.  In fact, Beetlejuice has been clearly over $1 million the last few weeks, so I'm curious how that constitutes as it "flopping hard each week"

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/15/22 at 12:57pm

MemorableUserName said: "Just announced that Billy Crystal signed on for a new limited series, so Mr. Saturday Night may not be around much longer.

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/billy-crystal-apple-series-before-barry-levinson-1235295157/"

His signing onto this would have to be approved by producers, otherwise he would be might be liable for breach of contract, which I am assuming is at least for a 6 month run. Based on current sales, Mr. Saturday Night isn't going anywhere through at least labor day. So if I had to guess Before goes into pre-production in mid-July, with plans to start shooting in September, right after Mr. Saturday Night Closes.